About Erik Townsend

hedge fund manager Erik Townsend

Erik Townsend is a retired software entrepreneur turned hedge fund manager. Throughout his career, Erik has capitalized on his ability to understand complex systems and anticipate paradigm shifts far in advance of the mainstream. Read More...

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RealVision TV red 01A conversation on January 26, 2016 between Grant Williams and James Grant, author of Grant's Interest Rate Observer.

 

 

 

 

 

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Grant WilliamsErik Townsend welcomes Grant Williams to MacroVoices. Erik and Grant discuss:

  • Grant’s experience and insights from observing Brexit outside of the UK
  • The next-steps and long-run view for the UK post-Brexit
  • The potential of the EU making an example out of the UK to prevent other countries from leaving
  • The current political void in British politics and who might step-up to fill this void
  • The precarious state of the European banking system
  • Deutsche Bank’s status as “Too Big to Fail”
  • How Brexit will spread political contagion and stoke calls for referenda in other European countries
  • The likelihood of the Fed having to ease with only 25 bps of room
  • What the dollar and gold both moving higher portends for the state of the global economy
  • The non-zero probability of war as a means of resolving unsurmountable debt burdens
  • Possible war scenarios under Trump or Clinton
  • Grant’s wonderfully-done “Crazy” presentation on RVTV

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PROFESSOR STEVE KEEN headshotErik Townsend welcomes Steve Keen to MacroVoices. Erik and Professor Keen discuss:

  • Brexit's economic consequences and possible political spillover into other European countries
  • Ditching the ivory tower in favor of working with entrepreneurs
  • The emergence of alternative currencies backed by labor and assets
  • The possibility of an energy-backed currency
  • The fundamental ingredient of trust in alternative currencies
  • The risk of entrusting private enterprise with money creation
  • Negative interest rates and fractional reserve banking
  • Fading mainstream confidence in neoclassical central bankers
  • Possible catalysts for the next financial crisis

 

 

 

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RealVision TV red 01A conversation on May 23, 2016 between Grant Williams and Simon Mikhailovich, Co-Founder of Toqueville Bullion Reserve.

 

 

 

 

 

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John LlewellynErik Townsend welcomes John Llewellyn to MacroVoices. Erik and John discuss:

  • How the Brexit vote is simply a prelude to a highly uncertain process
  • Polling accuracy and the distinct possibility of Britain exiting the EU
  • The near-term economic impacts of Brexit on the British economy including lower foreign-direct investment and trade re-negotiations
  • The broader global economic impact of a “leave” vote
  • Brexit’s impact on the U.S. Dollar and the possibility of re-igniting a Asian debt crisis
  • Potential monetary policy accommodation from the ECB
  • The implications of Brexit on global oil prices
  • Rise of European populism as a leading indicator of the U.S. political theatre

 

 

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Dr. Ben Hunt

Erik Townsend welcomes Dr. Ben Hunt to MacroVoices. Erik and Dr. Hunt discuss:

  • The U.S. Dollar as a reflection of the strategic interactions between central banks
  • China’s similarities to pre-WW1 Germany as an up-and-coming power
  • Brexit’s potential impact on the global economy
  • “Humpty Dumpty” events for the global economy including China devaluation and Euro-system fracturing
  • Price-signal inversion and market dislocation from fundamentals
  • The Fed’s slow realization of global interdependence
  • Negative interest rate money-market funds in the United States
  • How Swiss safe deposit boxes are at capacity and the war on cash
  • Gold’s role as insurance against central bankers
  • Kyle Bass’ China trade and whether you can trade Japan’s demographics
  • The potential consequences of the U.S. Presidential elections and global trade
  • Dr. Hunt’s background as a hedge fund manager and scholar
  • The inception of his popular Epsilon Theory Blog and applying game-theory to policy-driven markets

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RealVision TV red 01Hugh Hendry is interviewed by Raoul Pal for Real Vision Television on March 11th, 2016

 

 

 

 

 

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Arthur Berman largeErik Townsend welcomes Art Berman to MacroVoices. Erik and Art discuss:

  • Their calls made on Episode 3 of MacroVoices in February
  • Which fundamental factors have changed since then
  • The damage done to the supply of capital available to shale drillers in spite of oil rising to $50
  • Current US production levels and where they may be headed from here
  • Prices moving up in the face of dangerously high inventory levels at Cushing, OK
  • Using Comparitive Inventories to predict price movements
  • The 'funny' accounting practiced by shale drilling companies and many analysts
  • EIA price forecasts and whether or not they are accurate
  • Geopolitically driven supply disruptions and whether or not they will last
  • Middle Eastern oil production increases and alongside a shifting political picture
  • The possibility of a future where the world can't afford petroleum, and much more...

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julian brigden headshotErik Townsend welcomes Julian Brigden to MacroVoices. Erik and Julian discuss:

  • The difference between the DXY and the trade weighted broad Dollar index
  • The effect of emerging market fluctuations on the broad Dollar
  • Dollar pause or Dollar reversal?
  • The return of cyclical inflation in the US
  • Chinese capital outflows and the effect on real estate markets
  • How the Dollar story will affect precious metals
  • Emerging market equites
  • A lack of real cooperation between central banks
  • Global sovereign debt markets and what they are signaling about inflation
  • How a perfect storm of Dollar strength and a return of inflation will take away the central bank "put"
  • ...and bunches upon bunches more...

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RealVision TV red 01A conversation on March 25th, 2016 between Grant Williams and Rick Rule

 

 

 

 

 

 

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J ChristianErik Townsend welcomes Jeffrey Christian to MacroVoices. Erik and Jeffrey discuss:

  • The advantages held by the US over other economies
  • The reasons for the recent USD strength and where it is headed next
  • The market reaction to the most recent round of hawkishness from the Fed
  • The Gold market internals which have supported its price in 2016, and the possibility of a pullback
  • The relevance of the Commitments of Traders report in the Gold market
  • What institutional positioning in precious metals tells us about liquidity flows
  • Platinum, Palladium, their extraction methods and uses, their relationship to each other and other PMs
  • Where we are currently in the broader commodities cycle
  • The problems facing China, Japan, and Europe
  • Economic, social, and political issues in Russia
  • Possibilities for Gold and non-USD currencies playing a bigger role in central bank reserves, and more...

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PROFESSOR STEVE KEEN headshotErik Townsend welcomes Steve Keen to MacroVoices. Erik and Professor Keen discuss:

  • A comparison of the prevailing schools of economic thought
  • The role of credit in the economy
  • The importance of existing inventory when considering supply and demand calculations
  • What's wrong with neoclassical economics and how central bank policy needs to adapt
  • How Professor Keen was able to foresee the 2008 financial crisis
  • The mistake of mainstream economics in ignoring the importance of private sector debt
  • Low credit growth leading to a stangant economy
  • "Zombie Economies" and which countries are most likely to suffer another crisis
  • How to know if you're living in a Zombie Economy
  • The need to reduce private debt, and the ways to incentivize such a reduction
  • Plus Samir Madani joins us to discuss #OOTT and much more

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RealVision TV red 01A conversation on February 19th, 2016 between Raoul Pal and Grant Williams, co-founders of Real Vision Television.

 

 

 

 

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Das headshotErik Townsend welcomes Satyajit Das to MacroVoices. Erik and Das discuss:

  • The US as the cleanest shirt in a very dirty laundry basket of economies, and what it portends for the USD
  • Emerging market debt and how it should be dealt with if interest rates rise
  • The difference between a cuclical downturn and a structural shift, and how policy should respond
  • The problem with "emergency measures" becoming permanent policy
  • A global population obsessed with perpetual incremental improvements to living standards
  • Negative interest rates as a form of taxation
  • Malinvestment in China, and how it exacerbates the global debt problem
  • How China might deal with this round of over-indebtedness, and what's different this time
  • How the global economy will be impacted by a slowdown and shift in focus in China
  • Gold as a currency, as a hedge, and as a "matter of faith"
  • The potential for the entire global economy to "turn Japanese" 

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Duncan headshotErik Townsend welcomes Richard Duncan to MacroVoices. Erik and Richard discuss:

  • The events in world world history which have led to increased government spending and record debt
  • The catalysts that made everything "pop" in 2008
  • How QE works, who benefits from it, and how likely it is to persist
  • The results of having a government directed economic system for over 76 years
  • Unique conditions which allowed extraordinary policy from the Fed, and how the US could capitalize on them
  • The looming threat of war increasing due to a "need" for increased government spending
  • The alternative forms of government spending we could see in lieu of war
  • The possibility, and likely futility of "helicopter money"
  • Why we won't see the end of the USD's role as world reserve currency anytime soon
  • And fistfuls of more good stuff...

 

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RealVision TV red 01Kyle Bass interviews John Burbank on March 6th, 2015

 

 

 

 

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Rick Rule eErik Townsend welcomes Rick Rule to MacroVoices. Erik and Rick discuss:

  • Rick’s general thesis on precious metals and how they differ from other natural resources

  • The relative predictability of commodities due to their cyclicality

  • The spectacular returns available to investors who can be brave when others are fearful

  • The value of contrarian information when markets are out of favor

  • The value of private placement and P.I.P.E. investments

  • Rick’s personal investment strategies at the current time

  • The dangers and importance of identifying conflicts of interest in investing

  • The resources available to investors to help them protect themselves against frauds

  • Erik and Art Berman bring us up to speed on the US crude oil inventory situation, and what fundamental factors may have changed moving the market still higher

  • Art warns that this rally may have been about the market pricing in looming supply risks, and more...

  • Register for free at the top of this page to have Art's powerpoint presentation sent to you by email

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Rickards Ani Standing cropped ColorErik Townsend welcomes Jim Rickards to MacroVoices. Erik and Jim discuss:

  • Gold as a currency, rather than an investment, because "earning yield requires taking risk"

  • The USD rally and the Fed’s influence on its ability to continue

  • The difference between a central bank’s ability to cure inflation, vs. curing deflation

  • The possibilities of confiscation, taxation, and NIRP and their effects on the relative attractiveness of Gold

  • The Fed first tightening into weakness, and now turning more dovish after a market correction in early 2016

  • The reasons why governments can’t tolerate inflation

  • Gold as a potential hedge against deflation, as well as inflation

  • How QE actually functions, and why we’ve seen so little effect on the real economy

  • What the next form of stimulus may look like, and how it may affect the outlook on Gold

  • The necessity for structural solutions, not monetary solutions, to structural problems

  • What an increase in institutional holdings of Gold would mean for price, and plenty more...

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RealVision TV red 01

 

 

 

 

 

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Raoul PalErik Townsend welcomes Raoul Pal to MacroVoices. Erik and Raoul discuss:

  • The US Dollar backstory and how central bank policy divergence got us here
  • US government bonds and the potential for interest rates to move much lower
  • Weak growth in the US and a business cycle that is appearing to roll over
  • The risks of loaning money to insolvent governments in the form of sovereign bonds
  • Changing our operating framework to better understand a changing global macro picture
  • Gold and real estate becoming hedges to the currency risk involved with negative interest rates
  • Gold's ability to rally in the face of potential further Dollar strength
  • The European banking system and "CoCo Bonds"
  • The ban on cash and the real reasons the powers that be are moving in this direction
  • "The Big Uglies" and what could trigger an economic recession
  • Which forms further monetary or fiscal stimulus could take, and more...

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MACRO VOICES is presented for informational and entertainment purposes only. The information presented in MACRO VOICES should NOT be construed as investment advice. Always consult a licensed investment professional before making important investment decisions. The opinions expressed on MACRO VOICES are those of the participants. MACRO VOICES, its producers, and hosts Erik Townsend and Nathan Egger shall NOT be liable for losses resulting from investment decisions based on information or viewpoints presented on MACRO VOICES.

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