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TOPIC: Suggestion Box

Suggestion Box 2 weeks 3 days ago #1

  • kglg1111
  • DJA
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This is my current favorite podcast and I download over 30 a week!

Can I suggest a topic for a potential guest, who is current on RETAIL SALES IN AMERICA, because I have a rather interesting question.

The CURRENT NARRATIVE is that Retail Sales are diminishing rapidly in Store Fronts (Actual retail centers, physical) and we are seeing a sudden increase in Bankruptcies. Sears and Payless Shoets come to mind. There were 7 more this week.

The Narrative, or what I call, "what they want us to think" is that Amazon is picking up these sales? On top of this, I am reading articles about a rapid and sudden slowing of Auto Sales, and this is in part attributed to SUB-PRIME borrowers and other reasons.

I think that this is an important topic for a potential guest who can help us TRULY understand: what is Happening to retail sales, a big driver and harbinger of the USA economic future. IS AMAZON or is Amazon and the other ON-LINE sellers taking up the slack?

Thanks for the great show! As soon as it is posted, I cannot wait to listen.

Regards,

DJ
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Suggestion Box 2 weeks 2 days ago #2

  • Roberto
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Some Fermi-izing (I'm reading Superforecasting) - A quick (back of the envelope) look at FRED showed:
1. Retail Sales: Total (Excluding Food Services) (RSXFS) (chosen because ecommerce penetration of food sales is much smaller) at ~400Bn sales growing about 4%/yr for the last 4 yrs and up sharply from 3Q16
2. E-Commerce Retail Sales (ECOMSA) at ~100Bn sales growing about 14%/yr avge for last 4yrs and down on 3Q16.

Conclusion:
That growth differential will see Ecommerce steal the store front lunch at 10% CAGR (possibly! Ceteris Paribus and prima facie) which will compound to mkt share of store fronts and Ecommerce moving from 80/20 in 2016 to 50/50 by 2031.
I think it will be faster than this because Ecommerce has more retail store front markets to penetrate (beyond the current victories in books, music, and incursions into clothing, shoes etc).

As far as economic effects: this is creative destruction which is increasing productivity. Big tick for the economy. But inequality will continue. That needs addressing big time already.
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Suggestion Box 1 week 2 days ago #3

  • kglg1111
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Furthering your theme, I read a long report on the Millenial, who typically will NOT drive to the MALL to shop, but instead will buy their clothing, reading glasses, and so on, ON LINE. The death spiral of Malls and thus MALL REITS (very clearly a ton of debt out there) could really shake up debt-burdened instruments. We shall see.

DJ
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MACRO VOICES is presented for informational and entertainment purposes only. The information presented in MACRO VOICES should NOT be construed as investment advice. Always consult a licensed investment professional before making important investment decisions. The opinions expressed on MACRO VOICES are those of the participants. MACRO VOICES, its producers, and hosts Erik Townsend and Nathan Egger shall NOT be liable for losses resulting from investment decisions based on information or viewpoints presented on MACRO VOICES.

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