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TOPIC: Brazilian Real

Brazilian Real 3 months 1 week ago #1

  • MichaelMedici
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Hi All,

Curious if anyone has any excellent sources on Brazil - whether it's government/CB related, currency related, commodity related or know where I could find information on the country/currency.

I remember hearing musings about a corrupt government, need to fix currency etc. and with connection to oil (projecting a major price decline during refinery maintenance season) and the known after effects of hosting an Olympic games I see a potential opportunity to short the Real against the Dollar or Gold.

If anyone has any sources please feel free to share!

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Brazilian Real 3 months 1 week ago #2

  • ErikTownsend
    Erik Townsend
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It's a very volatile market. I was short the real and the Bovespa, then when Rouseff was outsed markets melted UP on relief that she was gone and I got stopped out of both trades! The last thing I expected was the ouster of a head of state to BOOST a stock market!

So be careful - it's a very volatile currency.

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Brazilian Real 3 months 1 week ago #3

  • SO
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Around new years you had total panic selling in the midst of the Petrobras scandal and political turmoil. The Economist and other such papers all had negative covers on Brazil simultaneously. And this (of course, with hindsight) turned out to be a great opportunity to enter the equity markets at least.

I am looking for opportunities to get into Brazilian equities the if we get another dip, perhaps due to another dip in oil prices or negative political news. Because long-term I think Brazil has potential to perform like the Indian market did after a pro-market/business head of state was elected. I think currencies might follow the same pattern.
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Brazilian Real 3 months 1 week ago #4

  • LBL
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I think you can obtain some decent intelligence by watching one or more of the classes of pro athletes in Brazil.

Just as pro surfing has gotten more modern and more polished (Samsung sponsorship, very state of the art live webcasts that you may soon wish all sports had, included user controlled instant replay), the Brazilians have won the last 2 World Titles. Competing against Australians, Hawaiians, and Americans that had a lock on the sport for its entire history.

The behavior of some of the Brazilians is telling. Filipe Toledo, who many feel was robbed of the 2015 title by a bad judging call at Pipeline ... moved his entire family to San Clemente a few years ago.

One of the Brazilian pro's was shot and killed during a robbery, and is now often mentioned by the other pros during their post-heat interviews.

The info / intel you pick up from reading about their career choices may shed more light on whether going to the 2016 Olympics is a bad idea, i.e. it's more social than economic.

But if Brazil manages to lose money on the Olympics, that does not indicate economic strength.

It seems that Brazil is also tied to the fortunes of PetroBras.

Maybe a little like how the South African Rand fell with plunging commodity prices.

Seems like the Real would also be sensitive to oil prices.

If I wanted to get more intel about Brazil, I would try to talk with the Brazilian surfboard manufacturers.

See how they balance the current popularity of surfing (indicating a market for their products) with the increased mortality rate.

In a more stable, less violent culture, they would be building more surfboard factories.

If they're not expanding, that's another indicator that it's real hard to make money in Brazil.
Last Edit: 3 months 1 week ago by LBL.
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