Welcome to Macro Voices

Erik Townsend welcomes David Hay to MacroVoices. Erik and David discuss:

• Trump victory rally likely overbought
• Recession risk remains high
• Market fails to discount effect of Trump tax plan on corporate buybacks
• USD Rally can’t continue indefinitely; Plaza Accord 2.0 is inevitable
• Global debt burden poses serious risk to full recovery
• Recession could still spell much lower treasury yields
• China situation bad but probably not bad enough to trigger global downturn
• Energy MLPs have tripled in 2016 – Dave still Bullish

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An interview which was originally aired on June 2, 2016, between Raoul Pal of Real Vision and Edward Misrahi, Goldman Sachs alumni and founder of Eton Park.

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Erik Townsend and Aaron Chan introduce the Accredited Investor Academy Series, Part 4. We’re taking this week off from our regular show format, so instead of a featured interview guest, we’re airing the final part of a four-part series about learning to be a sophisticated private investor.

Erik and Aaron discuss:

• Definition and origins of the hedge fund
• Whether active managers are able to outperform the market
• Impediments to investing in the "top name" hedge funds
• Various hedge fund strategies
• How to learn and gather more information on hedge funds
• CTA's and managed futures commodity pools
• Fund of funds

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An interview which was originally published on August 2, 2016, between Grant Williams of Real Vision and Paul J. Isaac, CEO and Founder of Arbiter Partners Capital Management.

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Erik Townsend and Aaron Chan introduce the Accredited Investor Academy Series, Part 3A. We’re taking this week off from our regular show format, so instead of a featured interview guest, we’re airing the third of a four-part series about learning to be a sophisticated private investor.

Erik and David discuss:

• Background and introduction to angel investing and entrepreneurship through his great uncle David Rose
• What angel investing actually is, how it might fit in a portfolio, and who it is suited for
• The time-horizon, temperament, and risk-tolerance required for angel investing
• The appropriate mind-set when approaching angel investing
• Expected investment returns from angel investing and the role of diversification
• Why it's “far better to invest in the jockey than on the horse”
• Balancing and matching between entrepreneurial execution and bright ideas
• Mechanics and funding sequence of an angel deal
• Post-investment lifecycle
• The importance of networking with veteran angel investors prior to initial investments
• How the Angel Capital Association vets angel investing groups
• Learning through reading, finding a mentor, and investing
• Gust.com angel investing platform, Singularity University and exponential technology

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Erik Townsend and Aaron Chan introduce the Accredited Investor Academy Series, Part 3. We’re taking this week off from our regular show format, so instead of a featured interview guest, we’re airing the third of a four-part series about learning to be a sophisticated private investor.

Erik and Aaron discuss:

• The definition of angel investing
• Profile of a successful angel investor
• Professionally-managed alternative investment vehicles
• Mechanics and nuances involved with investing in alternative vehicles
• Difference between con men and the true outperformers
• Investment minimums and investor quotas in 3(c)(1) and 3(c)(7) funds
• Origins of the 2/20 fee structure and appropriate due diligence
• Particulars of venture capital and private equity limited partnerships
• Benefits of getting marketing material from funds

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An interview which was originally published on April 29, 2016 between Grant Williams of Real Vision and Jawad Mian, Founder and Managing Editor of Stray Reflections, a global macro research and trading advisory with a focus on major investment themes and actionable trade ideas.

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Erik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Julian Brigden to MacroVoices. Erik and Julian discuss:

• Waxing and waning of U.S. Dollar cycles driving global crises
• Central bank over-reaction to oil crash and now cyclical inflation
• Potentially materially higher headline inflation and wage numbers in 2017
• China moving from exporting deflation to inflation
• Peak central bank omnipotence
• Potential for sub-$1,000 and sub-$14 gold and silver prices
• Similarities between present conditions and 1986-87
• Impact of U.S. Dollar repatriation on Eurodollar funding
• U.S. oil substitution leading to a deficit of reserves around the world
• Timeline for replacing the U.S. Dollar as the global reserve currency
• Real Vision Publications Homepage and Launch Video

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Erik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Professor Steve Keen to MacroVoices. Erik and Professor Keen discuss:

• How Trump might be the most Keynesian President since Reagan
• Possibility of a recession occurring before U.S. fiscal stimulus is implemented
• Private debt level's inability to absorb higher rates
• Prospects for a debt jubilee and subsequent credit boom
• Implementation and distribution of debt jubilee as "people's QE"
• Unconstrained QE from central banks
• European Union disintegration making Lehman look like a picnic
• Knock-on effects from European Union disintegration
• Last gasps of neoliberalism evidenced by upcoming UK university classification system

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Erik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Art Berman to MacroVoices. Erik and Art discuss:

• OPEC's latest production cut agreement and what it means
• Production cut being more akin to a floor than a ceiling
• False conception of cutting production to bring balance to an already-balanced market
• How excess oil in storage will suppress prices for some time to come
• Weak demand growth similar to late-2014 won't support higher prices
• Resumption of U.S. production in response to higher prices
• OPEC not being as desperate as portrayed by the media
• Weakening global economy as the main driver for low oil prices

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