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TOPIC: DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 1 - Jim Rogers

DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 1 - Jim Rogers 10 months 2 days ago #1

  • NathanEgger
    Nathan Egger
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I'm going to kick things off here with a few thoughts of my own after hearing Erik's interview with Jim Rogers this week.

One of the persistent themes of the interview was the massive amount of debt that we've seen building around the globe, and how the unwinding of these levels of debt tends to play out. Mr. Rogers pointed listeners to the history books, and suggested that whether it occurs by policymaker plot, or simply by the sheer weight and force of the times, debt accumulation of this magnitude has always led to war in the past.

Erik's assertion was that the next President of the United States may be the nation's most important to date, assuming he/she is in office during a time of massive deleveraging and sovereign debt crises around the world. I tend to lean Jim's way, in that I don't put much faith in any of the presidential candidates, and I too am proud to have never cast a vote for an eventual winner, but not everyone is quite so cynical. Looking at polling figures and assuming we will eventually end up with one of the current front-runners, Hillary, Sanders, Trump et al, it is difficult for me to imagine any of them leading the free world during one of the most difficult eras in modern human history.

If Erik is proven correct and we are indeed sitting on the precipice of a seriously tumultuous time for both the U.S., and the world at-large, which of the current candidates on offer is best fit to captain a ship that starts rapidly taking on water? Any of them?

Nathan
Last Edit: 9 months 3 weeks ago by NathanEgger.
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DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 1 - Jim Rogers 9 months 3 weeks ago #2

  • ErikTownsend
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Thanks for kicking things off, Nathan.

I'll throw in a few thoughts of my own. First of all please rest assured that professional grade microphones will be FedEx'd to Nathan and me before next week's show. Hopefully we offered our listeners enough value in terms of content to make up for the scratchy audio on our first show. We gotta start somewhere, folks! :ohmy:

Our target episode length was an hour, and we came in at 1:09. We spent a fair amount of time at the end telling you what to expect from this new show, and normally we won't be spending so much time on housekeeping. So I think we're running pretty close to target in terms of runtime. I'd welcome feedback from our listeners in terms of what we can do to improve.

As to Nathan's question about which candidate is best, I have a pretty crazy theory to throw out for discussion. Look, I'm no fan of Donald Trump. I think he's an obnoxious, self-important real estate mogul who owes most of his success to knowing how to game bankruptcy laws for his own benefit. But then I stop and think about what the country is going to need in the next 8 years. As Jim Rogers and I discussed, we're going to break the credit card and face a sovereign debt crisis some day. Could it be that knowing how to screw one's creditors and sucker them with the bill for our own largess is exactly the skill America will need most from its next President? I hate to say it folks, but if that's the job skill that's needed, it would be harder to find a guy with more experience than Trump when it comes to leaving his creditors to suffer for his past mistakes. Does this make him the best man for the job? Scary thought, I know...

Erik
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DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 1 - Jim Rogers 9 months 3 weeks ago #3

  • yaffstone
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Excellent point about needing to know how to profit from bankruptcy, but firing up the industrial war complex (economy) by firing Vladimir would probably be the largest and possibly be the last mal-investment in history.
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DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 1 - Jim Rogers 9 months 3 weeks ago #4

  • Arthur Itarian
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I agree that it would be nice to see competency in the White House, but it isn't going to happen.

Erik, it was good to hear your voice again :)

I'm an incompetent energy investor, looking to accumulate stocks or stock ETFs. Erik suggested waiting for oil to bottom because bad corporate news (such as bankruptcies) tends to lag.the oil price. Which oil price indicator should I monitor? Spot prices seem very jittery and noisy.

Thanks.
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DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 1 - Jim Rogers 9 months 3 weeks ago #5

  • ErikTownsend
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@Arthur Itarian

I'd say that total U.S. inventory levels, reported weekly on Wednesday mornings at 10:30am ET on the EIA website, are the indicator to watch for your purposes. I'd hold off on buying energy-related equities until the trend of weekly incentory builds has clearly reversed into a pattern of weekly draws. You can get the weekly report here.

Best,
Erik
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DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 1 - Jim Rogers 9 months 3 weeks ago #6

  • Arthur Itarian
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Perfect, thanks Erik!

Here's the latest chart (as of February 5) from page 5 of the full EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report:



From the summary:
At 502.0 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories remain near levels not seen for this time of year in at least the last 80 years.

:ohmy:
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DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 1 - Jim Rogers 9 months 3 weeks ago #7

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Erik, Nathan,
Great inaugural show! Regardless of sound quality, I heard every word. Thanks.

As far as the topic, Trump is the man. There is a lot I don't like about him but he seems to be the best fit right now due to his business acumen and his willingness to negotiate with anyone. All of the career politicians are too bellicose! Total war is not a good solution.
Last Edit: 9 months 3 weeks ago by Magnumb.
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DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 1 - Jim Rogers 9 months 2 weeks ago #12

  • NathanEgger
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@Magnumb - I've just now recognized your name and realize we've communicated through email ;)

So happy you liked the show, and we appreciate you listening despite our "audio growing pains." We expect a much better product from an audio quality perspective when we release episode 2 with Marc Faber this Friday. We hope you enjoy!



Nathan
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DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 1 - Jim Rogers 9 months 2 weeks ago #16

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Magnumb wrote:
Erik, Nathan,

As far as the topic, Trump is the man. There is a lot I don't like about him but he seems to be the best fit right now due to his business acumen and his willingness to negotiate with anyone. All of the career politicians are too bellicose! Total war is not a good solution.

I've got to disagree - agree - disagree
IMHO
I certainly do not think he is "The Man", I don't particularly like any of the candidates but he is by far the scariest (maybe next to Kaisich) on the GOP side.
I agree with you that "There is a lot I don't like about him"
I disagree that his business acumen is anymore than bullish egotism and disagree he has ANY "willingness to negociate".
Agree he is not a career politician - but still very much "bellicose"
More of a gut feeling than anything but I fear we will all regret if DT wins.
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DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 1 - Jim Rogers 9 months 3 weeks ago #8

  • a103990
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During the Jim Rogers interview, Eric mentions President Bush approximately doubled the national debt from around 5 to 10 trillion, and President Obama will more than doubled it again by the time he leaves office. He then proposed that if the next President served two full terms, the national debt would likely double again by 2024 to 40 trillion. Eric mentioned that the next President may be the most important Presidents in the nation’s history, as the next President may have to preside over the biggest fiscal crisis in the nation’s history, after the bond markets revolt, and revokes Washington’s reckless habits of borrowing and spending beyond our means.

While this point is not lost on me, I am perplexed why most people talk in terms of Presidents doubling the debt. I thought congress was mandated to manage the nation’s money, and they turned it over to the Federal Reserve, who created a debit based monetary system, that by its very nature MUST double, and then some, over time. While this might be viewed as semantics to talk about the President, or Congress, or the Fed, regarding who is to blame for doubling the debit over time, the reality is, it is by design.

On June 5, 1933, FDR took the United States off the gold standard when Congress enacted a joint resolution nullifying the right of creditors to demand payment in gold. Then, Nixon finished the job for the world on August 15, 1971.

How, by design, can the US government, or the Fed, (or the world for that matter), create a monetary system that is not debit based, and put an end to a system that by design, MUST double in debt over time? Gold is nice, but governments throughout history find ways to cheat. They mix other metals, clip coins, and eventually, flat out dismiss the system altogether like FDR, Congress and Nixon. Milton Friedman says, stop printing money. This only works if people have the absolute discipline to do that, and we’re not on a debt based monetary system that MUST grow.

I think this would be an interesting discussion here, and on the show. Perhaps an interview with Dr. Chris Martenson, writer of “The Crash Course: The Unsustainable Future of Our Economy, Energy, and Environment.”

An excerpt - Chapter 7. Our Money System

The debt-based money system is always continually growing by some percentage; it is an exponential system by its very design implying the amount of debt in the system will always exceed the amount of money.
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DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 1 - Jim Rogers 9 months 3 weeks ago #10

  • ErikTownsend
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@a1039990

You make an excellent point that the Presidents don't increase the debt on their own. I find that this way of describing the growth of the national debt over time is useful because people can easily remember Presidents and their terms. But you're right - it would have been better to say that "The government doubled the National Debt during the time that President G.W. Bush was in office", as opposed to "President Bush doubled the debt", which isn't technically accurate.

Dr. Chris Martenson is a friend and he's already on Nathan's guest recruiting list. We're focusing first on the names that will bring the largest audiences with them, like Jim Rogers and Dr. Marc Faber. After a round of building our own audience ranks, we'll start to branch out and bring you more of the names like Dr. Martenson that not everyone is already familiar with.

All the best,
Erik
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DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 1 - Jim Rogers 9 months 3 weeks ago #9

  • nevadan
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Congratulations on the premier episode. I will be a regular listener for sure. As far as the technical talk between two pros I'd love it. And credit Grant Williams and Things that make you go Hmmm for me finding you.
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DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 1 - Jim Rogers 9 months 2 weeks ago #11

  • NathanEgger
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@nevadan

Thanks so much for listening and joining us here on the MacroVoices forums! We look forward to serving you and feedback like this is incredibly helpful.

I've noted your preference on the Art Berman episode, and it is great to know that our friend and future interview guest, Grant Williams, is putting in a good word for us. We'll be sure to thank him directly!



Nathan
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DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 1 - Jim Rogers 9 months 2 weeks ago #13

  • Cowtown44
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Great job guys! Look forward to many more.
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DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 1 - Jim Rogers 9 months 2 weeks ago #14

  • NathanEgger
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Pleased to know you enjoyed it, Cowtown44, and our warmest welcome to the forums!
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DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 1 - Jim Rogers 9 months 2 weeks ago #15

  • Dante
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Very nicely done first episode. I like the format (comments - interview - comments), it is much an improvement over similar.
I look forward to all of the future interviews ...... the suggestion list is spot on so far.
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DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 1 - Jim Rogers 9 months 2 weeks ago #17

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Just finished. Great first episode. Look forward to more great interviews and the expansion of listener based requests.
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DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 1 - Jim Rogers 9 months 2 weeks ago #18

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What a great idea and I wish you every success with your Macro voices project.

As a small, but I hopefully well informed private investor, I have alway been a big fan of Jim Rogers. Like many whom have purchased and read most of his books, his subjects are clear, presentable, and always interesting. As in this interview, he did not disappoint, his comments about timing are so true, identification of a trend/trade is one thing, but capitalising on it, is not always possible due to timing itself and many other factors.

Jim has been consistent for many year about holding PM against currency debasement - recent price moment forecasts are always informative - as I have always personally held the view that holding some physical PMs, relative to your own investment portfolio size is a good hedge against systemic financial currency collapse; and as such its relative price is of minor importance, to at least owing some of it. Mr Rogers' Hot Commodities book highlights this point too.

I would very much enjoy hearing detailed technical interviews between TA and Hedge Fund Managers, as you have suggested for a future interview. Everyday processes, working structures promotes good a knowledge and understanding in this area, but I wonder how much conflict of interest could exist in presenting this information to the public (if data driven); well informed or not.

I look forward to the next interview.
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DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 1 - Jim Rogers 9 months 2 weeks ago #19

  • ErikTownsend
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@ourmaninfinance

Thanks for the kind words and welcome to our message boards!

The energy you bring forward is exactly what we conceived of when we created these forums - a place for private investors to network and share ideas with one another that is polite, grown-up, and sophisticated. Nathan and I will have more to say about our vision for the forums on "tomorrow's" show, which should be up on iTunes before midnight tonight if all goes well with the editing.

Best,
Erik
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DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 1 - Jim Rogers 9 months 2 weeks ago #20

  • levineam
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Nathan and Erik,

Great first episode! As a private investor not involved in the world of finance (thank god) I'm always looking out for new macro podcasts hosted by intelligent and genuine analysts who aren't hawking some product. I believe that mastering any skill is about maximizing one's acquisition of high quality information and podcasts are a technological innovation that are still undervalued in light of their capacity to convey information in a way that is low effort and highly portable. So thanks again, I look forward to future episodes.

Re: Guests: Martin Armstrong and Yanis Varoufakis (please please please Yanis)

Armstrong's site traffic is supposedly up big and I think he is an important voice in the economic darkness (as is Varoufakis). Like Rogers he emphasizes the importance of understanding history, but in addition he looks to patterns present in the past to develop his economic confidence model which attempts to give insight into the future. With his program, Socrates, he is bringing (in my own personal opinion) this next level technical analysis to the masses which I think is critical to getting power out of the hands of Wall Street, Central Banks, and Politicians, and into the hands of the ones capable of possessing it without corruption: We The People. I'm currently using it (along with many other sources of information) and I will try my best to come back in a year or so to give it a full review. Too soon to tell conclusively, but so far I am impressed.

Re: Presidential elections

Old timers (I mean that in a good way) like Jim Rogers and Martin Armstrong, who have a natural instinct, proclivity, and passion for economics, have been monitoring the global economy for decades, and possess sufficient humility truly understand that they (along with everyone else) cannot outsmart the "free market." Politicians are nothing but celebrities. The leaders who come and go can do little, if anything to affect it. All they can do is imprison, maim, and murder others. The most glaring example being the War on Drugs. This was instigated based on the same faulty assumptions people use when they try to imagine that one candidate over the other can "turn things around." If politicians could control the free market, then simply making laws banning drugs would stop their sale and consumption. When the making of the law fails to effect change (hence proving the premise incorrect) they then turn to the police (and then the military) to control the free market. Of course, human beings occupy the police and military forces, human beings comprise the free market, and human beings like drugs, and so there is not only negligible impact on the sale and consumption of drugs, but the very people supposedly tasked with controlling the free market (by "stopping" people from selling and consuming "drugs") wind up engaging in the trade itself. Of course, since the only thing those in power can really do is hurt others, we shouldn't be surprised when the only non-negligible impact is how many people get injured in the process and how much. Hence drugs being prevalent even in prisons, one of the supposed mechanisms for controlling the free market (as a supposed deterrent) and theoretically the places on Earth most controlled by the ones who believed they could control the distribution of the substances in the first place!

One can pontificate, or play, at imagining what magical entity could change the world, but it's like playing Dungeons and Dragons or Magic the Gathering. A fun game with no real world consequences. Schumpeter demonstrated (and information theory along with studies of how innovation works have substantiated) that humanity as a whole is a technological innovation machine. It is constantly generating new technologies which at regular intervals combine to create "Big Bangs" of innovation (to use a term from Carlota Perez) like the steam engine, automobile, and microprocessor which spawn a universe of new products and services which bring about an order of magnitude improvement in the flow of information which consequently improves productivity, which consequently increases the wealth and standard of living of the population. However, eventually (after about 30 years) the new innovation that caused the spectacular growth starts producing diminishing returns as profits are competed and regulated away, and the technology has largely saturated the marketplace.

This is interrelated with what Mancur Olson described in The Rise and Decline of Nations. Economic growth (and so technological innovation) occurs in populations whose philosophical frameworks (which are a result of historical coincidence) create a sufficiently stable and free society which enables the humans within it to do what humans do best: innovate and be productive. When those populations possess concepts (or "memes") like freedom, liberty, free markets, free trade, justice, democracy, private property, etc. which have evolved over time, technological innovation can happen faster (e.g. Britain then America) guaranteeing that the specific population is host to the Big Bang, and so gets to profit the most from it. In addition, as Olson explains, competition and free trade serve to curb the accumulation of distributional coalitions (a/k/a cartels, a/k/a special interests) which can promote and prolong the economic growth. However, it is a paradox of stability that special interests WILL accumulate, thus consistently slowing economic growth until the entire system breaks down. No single person has a discernible impact on any of these factors, unless you want to point to people like Adam Smith, though even Smith was merely observing what merchants were already doing of their own volition. It is the population as a whole that determines what kind of society we live in (through what kind of rulers they are willing to tolerate by avoiding revolution) and only deluded egomaniacs (Trump and Clinton being perfect examples, with Sanders probably being more along the lines of a deluded populist) believe they can have any significant impact on what we all believe. This is the mistake people make when they think that silencing Donald Trump would somehow diminish support for his policies. Donald Trump is not popular because through sheer force of will he has forced millions of people to agree with him. This is the way elitists think. Donald Trump is popular ... because he's POPULAR. Because he's saying what a lot of people already feel. The same is true of Bernie Sanders and it's telling that no one talks about silencing Sanders, demonstrating that so-called liberals are the more authoritarian when it comes to free speech nowadays. As studies in crowd sourcing have shown, no one person or group makes better decisions than the crowd, i.e. the population, i.e. the free market. The population is coming to understand everything I have written. The American Empire is in decline. It is no longer sufficiently free, the Information Age is in its descent, and special interests (distributional coalitions) predominate. If the population as a whole were to embrace classical liberal beliefs we could (theoretically) systematically dismantle and rebuild the socio-economic framework of the nation so as to guarantee that we are host to the next technological Big Bang and have the safeguards in place to minimize the accumulation of special interests and maximize individual freedom and consequently economic growth. Like Jim said, we should all just be having beers together. Unfortunately like any computer, The People can only process information at a certain speed, one that sadly works on the time scale of decades and even generations, and one of the most important signals to them is economic collapse. The next President, whomever it is, will likely double down on government control and state socialism (hence Trump's embrace of "universal healthcare") which will only accelerate the decline of the current economic system (what Yanis Varoufakis refers to as "The Global Minotaur"), and then hopefully out of the metaphorical rubble (we can pray that it is only metaphorical) a better system can be rebuilt integrating the vast amount of new information we have accumulated since the inception of this system. But even a President who didn't double down on state socialism could only slightly delay the decline ("extend and pretend") and as another commentator pointed out even they can't do anything on their own. That's why the debt continues to rise consistently and predictably, because it is not a conscious decision made by those in power, but an unavoidable SYMPTOM of the economic realities which have been outlined by the great worldly philosophers on whose shoulders we all stand. The question is, "Who should we look to next for guidance in this uniquely spectacular and petrifying age?" I vote for Martin Armstrong and Yanis Varoufakis :)

Thanks again and keep up the good work!
Last Edit: 9 months 2 weeks ago by levineam.
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DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 1 - Jim Rogers 9 months 2 weeks ago #21

  • ErikTownsend
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@levineam,

Welcome, and thanks for a very thorough post! Please accept our apologies for being slow to respond in detail; Nathan and I are scrambling this afternoon to produce this week's show with Dr. Marc Faber. I'll reply in more detail after we get today's show out the door...

Thanks,
Erik
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DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 1 - Jim Rogers 9 months 2 weeks ago #22

  • MCPP
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As others have said, thanks for doing this. A huge fan of Eriks, and I always thought you added the most to the other financial podcast. Their loss.

From a Canadian perspective, Josef Schachter, an oil analyst in Calgary; he can speak to North America and Asia gas/oil reserves and companies. A conversation with Erik would be very interesting.

Also Jeff Rubin, ex CIBC bank, peak oil analyst. Written a couple books.

Really looking forward to your shows guys.
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DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 1 - Jim Rogers 9 months 2 weeks ago #25

  • NathanEgger
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@MCPP - Welcome to the forums. We're so happy to have you tracking our work. We will continue to aim a lot of our focus towards oil and energy, so your suggestions here are very helpful. I've added them to our list.

Happy listening!



Nathan
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DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 1 - Jim Rogers 9 months 2 weeks ago #23

  • redgr@iserv.net
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Great start! I really enjoyed your first topic and Jim Rogers was great as always.

Jim mentioned that those who study history will see the patterns emerge. I just completed a book by Prof. Eric Cline entitled "1177BC". New archaeology within the past 10-15 years has brought about a much better understanding of what brought the Bronze Age to a close. The amazing conclusion in the book is that 4 great empires of the Bronze Age had a very sophisticated international trade among themselves, and due to some geological and environmental catastrophes, the international system of trade was upset with the result that in less than 50 years, 3 of the 4 empires vanished off the face of the earth. The 4th empire (Egypt) barely survived but was never a great power again. Each of the empires had become so specialized in the trade that the loss of any one of the trading partners set off a series of events (mass migrations, war, etc) that ultimately destroyed them. Reading this book laid down a perfect road map as to how empires fall. The parallels to today are eerily similar. All that said, Jim Rogers and Erik pretty much got it right as to what we can expect when our international system of trade gets whacked beyond repair.

Another interesting conclusion in the book is that the empires broke up into city-states with rather broad freedoms (including freedom from the empire and its system of taxation and serfdom). From those city-states came the Iron Age.

For those Economics-History freaks like me, read the book. It will truly leave you shaking your head and remembering the words of Jim Rogers that history does repeat itself.

Can't wait to hear the next interview.

Ron
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DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 1 - Jim Rogers 9 months 2 weeks ago #24

  • ErikTownsend
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@redegr

I'm so delighted by all the thoughtful and insightful posts we've seen, including yours. Welcome!

Nathan and I spoke about our vision for these forums on tomorrow's show (in the editing booth now, should be up on the site within a few hours). I really like the way things are going - the people we're seeing join us here are exactly the kind of people I envisioned building an online collaboration community with through these forums.

Gotta run - editors need help with tonight's show...

Erik
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DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 1 - Jim Rogers 4 months 2 weeks ago #26

  • hannamarin
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thanks for enlighten my brain! I propose you to visit http://bigessaywriter.com/blog/15-useful-tips-how-to-write-winning-speech and get to know hoe easily write a winning speech!
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