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TOPIC: Discussion Thread - Raoul Pal Episode 46

Discussion Thread - Raoul Pal Episode 46 5 months 5 days ago #1

  • PatrickCeresna
    Patrick Ceresna
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As always it was great to have Raoul back on the show. It is certainly interesting to see how much uncertainty there is in regards to how the market plays out in 2017. The only consensus seems to be that the US Dollar is going higher. My observation--- the appetite for traders to go short this market is probably the lowest in 3 years, yet the market is at the highest price and multiples. Will it pay to take a risk being short?
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Discussion Thread - Raoul Pal Episode 46 5 months 4 days ago #2

  • p3t3
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My observation--- the appetite for traders to go short this market is probably the lowest in 3 years, yet the market is at the highest price and multiples. Will it pay to take a risk being short?

Not if (as I suspect) we have now entered the final phase of a multi-year bull market : "Rampant Speculation".

In the final speculation phase rationality is suspended as "everyone" piles in to avoid missing out.
The phase can last much longer than many think possible -
12 months leading into Sept 87
17 months to March 2000 for the NASDAQ
15 months to Oct 07 - by my count.

Previous final phases were a function of market and financial conditions.
This one is being brought about by prolonged Central Bank intervention, now being supplemented by political intervention (if the new President has his way).....

Rational thinking need not apply.....until it does.

Just my view.
p3t3
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Discussion Thread - Raoul Pal Episode 46 5 months 3 days ago #3

  • Michael Gebhart
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I've been thinking the market is expensive since 2013 but it just keeps going higher. Thinking the strong dollar will squeeze EMs and hurt earnings in U.S. and there will be a sell off later this year but that is an uninformed guess. Commodities will bottom out soon too and you'll see some supply destruction inflationary pressure too later this year into next. Some of the recent rally is based on the Keynesian assertion that fiscal stimulus is good for the economy but all it does is crowd out more efficient private sector investment like it has done in Greece.

Welcome Patrick. That was a nice video you posted in the weekly roundup and hope to see what else you bring.

Will miss Mr. Chan but it is so great to see him at Real Vision.
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Discussion Thread - Raoul Pal Episode 46 5 months 1 day ago #4

  • steven62264
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Hi guys,

I'm keen to know as to what instruments you look at in Bloomberg too see the overcrowding in the VIX contango trades. I tried looking online for VIX trading strategies but no luck so far.

Cheers
Steven
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