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TOPIC: Discussion Thread - Juliette Declercq Episode 57

Discussion Thread - Juliette Declercq Episode 57 6 months 1 week ago #1

  • PatrickCeresna
    Patrick Ceresna
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Interesting insights from Juliette on the business cycle and impact of China. What did you think of her insights.
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Discussion Thread - Juliette Declercq Episode 57 6 months 1 week ago #2

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Eric- Do you see the Syrian airstrike oil spike subsiding next week if things do not elevate? Seems the reversal of gold and silver today was a bit of a surprise following that jobs number...
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Discussion Thread - Juliette Declercq Episode 57 6 months 1 week ago #3

  • Roberto
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Thank you very much to Erik and Juliette for an enlightening interview and research piece.
Juliette is right to focus her economic doubts on long bonds rather than short stocks. We are in irrational exuberance in stocks here. I wonder if it is similar to the Dec94 - May96 period where the economy slowed very markedly (bonds soared) but SPX decided to launch to the heavens in a powerful bull micro channel (most visible in a monthly log chart).
The only sufficient cause I can find is the GOP sweep of Congress in the Nov 94 elections. There are similar market responses in DXY in the same period and in others (eg: Nov1980). Once that early Reagan recession finished 21mths after the GOP sweep, SPX similarly launched. These GOP sweeps seem to markedly galvanise animal spirits.
That is the risk in SPX shorts here. I have the target of ~2550 where a possible top may start to develop (using previous market behaviour around 2 channels drawn from 1930-40s on a log daily chart).
Economically, only a recession would stop SPX here (like in Reagan’s term at Jun80), not a slowdown (like Clinton’s term (with GOP Congress) in 1995).
Hence it was ironic Juliette said there was no magic in the Trump rally. Somewhat true economically but wow the ‘GOP sweep’ animal spirits revival show is all magic for SPX. The biggest magic in markets. If someone can sufficiently explain these massive trends and their launch timing otherwise, please let me know. While starting valuations effect the duration and hence extent of the mkt moves, the power of the move as evident in the narrow bull trends they engender seems the distinctive factor of the GOP sweep animal spirits driver. So with high valuations now, this move may not last long but will probably continue powerfully until a recession more clearly looms.
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