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TOPIC: DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 3 - Art Berman

DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 3 - Art Berman 9 months 1 week ago #1

  • NathanEgger
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Part I of our two-part series on "The Coming Bottom in Oil Prices" with Art Berman is now available!

I usually use this space to pose to the MacroVoices community whatever lingering questions I have from Erik's interview with our featured guest, but we covered all that and then some in the third segment of the podcast. So, I'll leave it to you guys to do the asking in this thread, and Erik and I will do all we can to address any issues that we failed to clarify on the program.

Hope you enjoyed!
Last Edit: 9 months 1 week ago by NathanEgger.
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DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 3 - Art Berman 9 months 1 week ago #2

  • ErikTownsend
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I'll add a few comments...

First, thank you everyone for understanding that we're going through some growing pains. In the first episode with Jim Rogers it was my microphone. In this one, we BADLY underestimated the time needed to cover the subject, but I think we did a good job of improvising. That said, our apologies for the length of this week's show. It went WAY longer than our target of 60-90 minutes. But don't worry, folks, we'll get the bugs worked out before long!

We hope to bring you Part II next week. We had a guest booked already, but it looks like he can move to a different date. Still not confirmed; we'll keep you posted here.

Some issues where I'd particularly welcome listener feedback:
  1. How did you like this show compared to the last two? Specifically, for the first two shows we were focusing on bringing you "big names" that everyone has heard of. This time around we decided to focus on the SUBJECT MATTER (coming bottom in oil prices) that we think is most important in today's markets, then we chose a guest who has relatively little name recognition, but whom I believe to be best qualified to address oil market fundamentals. So we gave you a guy you may never have heard of before, and really dove into the meat of the market. Which approach did you like best? Which do you want more of?
  2. Our current dilemma is deciding whether to do Part II with a new guest who is an oil trader, vs. Nathan just interviews me. The problem here is that on one hand, we would like to stay committed to the general approach of brining you a new guest each week to keep things interesting. But frankly at extreme risk of sounding arrogant, I just don't know anyone anywhere who has put as much thought into this as I have. My leaning at this point is to do Part II as just Nathan interviewing me, but I welcome listener feedback on the subject.
  3. I'm very curious to know how listeners felt about the long show duration. It was WAY longer than we planned, but at the same time I thought we got a lot of really great content. We designed the flow so that pro commodity traders could listen to my discussion with Art and call it a day there, while those with time and interest in learning more could stay for the "Post-Game show" with Nathan. On one hand I think we delivered some really fantastic content and we organized it in a way that should appeal to a wide variety of audiences. But those of you who took Nathan's advice and listened to the conversation with Art a second time (did anyone actually do that? Was it worthwhile?) would have three hours of your time invested in listening to one podcast. Yikes!

All feedback welcome. We strive to learn from our mistakes and improve with each show we do.

Erik
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DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 3 - Art Berman 9 months 1 week ago #3

  • tankumo
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Long discussion is ok, people can listen to it while eating, I do that and I now take a break at minute 38, and will continue on my next meal or when I have time.

No problem here really, windows media player allows you to pause, or you can just reload the link, just remember where you paused.

Also, gentlemen, I came across this article, it's related to oil issue, can you folks comment on this one? Thanks.

www.safehaven.com/article/40591/the-us-o...-oil-boom-going-bust
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DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 3 - Art Berman 9 months 1 week ago #5

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Great article tankumo ! Now to figure out which companies will still exist after the bottom - which will have the best upside afterward.

It may not be any of the fracking companies, but other players in the oil sector. Looking forward to 2nd half of podcast.
Last Edit: 9 months 1 week ago by Xriva.
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DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 3 - Art Berman 9 months 1 week ago #4

  • Xriva
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As the oil sector suffers I've sensed contrarian opportunity, but knew I was uneducated about the sector.
The oil episode was beyond perfect. For me it was a crash course in understanding oil sector fundamentals.

I hope to combine this knowledge with careful research and make a few investments. I'm really looking forward to the second half.

Thanks a million !!!!
Last Edit: 9 months 1 week ago by Xriva. Reason: Typo
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DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 3 - Art Berman 9 months 1 week ago #6

  • Dante
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Very nicely done. Perfect combination of detail and explanation for all audiences.
As a industry working Petroleum Engineer, I have always followed what Art has to say and remained equally impressed with Eric's perspectives. We are indeed kindred spirits. Keep up he good work. Look forward to part two.
Thanks very much for the download!
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DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 3 - Art Berman 9 months 1 week ago #7

  • ErikTownsend
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Greetings, all, and thanks for the wonderful compliments! They made my day. A quick Saturday morning update:

The guest we had booked for next week's show was gracious enough to accept a week's delay, so we will be bringing you Part II: Trading Strategies next week for our March 4th show.

The format will be to consider trading opportunities from four perspectives: The commodity futures manager, the fixed income manager, and equity manager, and finally, the retail investor. We welcome further suggestions and requests regarding the content.

Good to see that (so far) nobody is complaining too much about the show running so long. We'll do better next week!

Erik
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DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 3 - Art Berman 9 months 1 week ago #8

  • MCPP
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Gentlemen,

1) Excellent show, very informative. I will need to listen to it a second time there was so much information.

2) Time - as another commented, time is a non issue for me. Content is far more important, and that was outstanding.

3) Erik - Interview - As a long time listener of Erik from another weekly financial show, I always thought Erik added a degree of professionalism and knowledge each week. I would be more than happy to hear Erik interviewed from time to time. Again, content is the key. Many people interviewed on other shows tend to do the rounds and often time you can hear them a couple times per week if you search. I' rather hear unique, out of the box opinions.

Great start guys
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DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 3 - Art Berman 9 months 1 week ago #9

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I have really enjoyed the podcast thus far. Great host, guests and content. I particularly enjoyed this episode with Art Berman. You referenced a presentation created by Art which you would make public following the show. I was wondering if you could please point me in the direction of that if it is in fact available.

Thanks a lot!
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DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 3 - Art Berman 9 months 1 week ago #10

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Really interesting podcast. The longer, the better for me
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DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 3 - Art Berman 9 months 1 week ago #11

  • ErikTownsend
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Hey everybody,

Keep a close eye on ArtBerman.com for the next 24 hrs or so. Rumor has it that a new post is coming that will be extremely germain to my discussion with Art about Cushing Comparative Inventory.

Erik

p.s. Art's first presentation (mentioned on the show) is linked from our homepage. Go there, and at the bottom of the description of the Art Berman episode, there is a link to "Supplemental materials from Art Berman". This is a treasure chest of graphs and charts that is as good as art's interview was.
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DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 3 - Art Berman 9 months 1 week ago #12

  • peter
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Superb show! Exquisite in-depth analysis - just what I had hoped for - thanks so much!

To answer your questions, Erik:

1. I'd prefer the subject matter focus approach targeting key matters for today's markets, or occasionally key topics for strategizing long term. And I definitely wouldn't mind if several of these subject matters had to do with oil markets! That said, I believe there're (a few) more integrative thinkers/strategists (Jim Rickards, Eric Janszen, ...) who could be interviewed to capture their big-picture views. The purpose of these episodes could be to put the different pieces of the puzzle together into a 'world view' or strategy.

2. Definitely, Nathan should, at least initially, interview you rather than diluting you with other guests! Then, challenging your opinions and trading strategies with those of other traders could be an interesting topic of future shows.

3. I listened to the whole show. No problem with length; as mentioned above: content is more important than time. I also listened to the third segment, but didn't re-listen to the interview afterwards (but I suspect I'd wanted to do so if I was new to the field). After a few of such interviews I guess it should be possible to sit down, make a reasonably comprehensive list of terms to put together a glossary of terms for the website? Perhaps you could then do one show with an introduction for newcomers where you explain these terms and to which you could refer to in the future?

In general, I like the format of having a short market overview upfront. Then an in-depth segment (which sometimes could/should be Nathan interviewing you on oil-trading-related topics you're the go-to expert on), and then an additional segment in which you and Nathan discuss a particular topic in depth.

This third segment could be used for experimenting with different ideas and concepts. A continuation of your peak oil videos in an audio format would be great, particularly because we're in the midst of the ACH moment you predicted in these videos a few years ago!

Keep up the great work!
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DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 3 - Art Berman 9 months 1 week ago #13

  • dgilmart
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Erik,

Great show. I agree with others that are totally fine if the show is "long". Long means more information, and in a situation like the last episode, letting the conversation flow worked great. Certainly it would have been a major bummer if in the middle of the flow you cut off Art with a "well, that's all the time we have so I have to stop you there!" For those of us who subscribe - it's there on the iPhone. we can just stop and pick it up later as needed.

One question - apologies if asked - that could get into the "reader questions" part of the commentary in a future show:

For quite some time, the oil prices and the stock market have been almost perfectly correlated. Commentators have even begun assigning causation saying things like "the Dow was down a lot today because of another drop in oil prices..." Indeed it almost seems psychologically to drive the stock market lower when oil drops. This makes no sense whatsoever to me. Unless you are an energy firm with exposure to oil prices, dropping oil prices seem to be good news. How could lower oil not be good news both to companies with energy as a major cost, but also to any company benefitting from extra dollars in consumer pockets. Have been able to make any sense of this correlation? Is there a reason, or do we just give up thinking about fundamentals in the stock market?!

Thanks. Be well and keep up the good work.

Doug
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DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 3 - Art Berman 9 months 1 week ago #17

  • ErikTownsend
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Thanks for an excellent question, Doug. We'll put it in our Mailbag.

Erik
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DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 3 - Art Berman 9 months 1 week ago #14

  • levineam
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Loved the show and agree with the majority that length is a non-issue. Since you only do one show a week, we have the whole week to listen. Maybe keep this in mind and structure the show accordingly (e.g. breaking up the show into smaller segments). But as always, loved it all.

1. SHOW FORMAT: Loved it, but I like the other format too. I think the variety is great. I like that you guys are open to trying whatever format feels appropriate for a given show and think that sets you apart from the others in the field. I say keep experimenting. As far as never having heard of the guy, I personally loved it. He was clearly well informed and an insider to the business. I want to hear from the guy who is in the trenches getting paid to do a job in the sector, not just invest in it (no offense ;) ) or talk about it. The beauty of this format is that we got to hear both sides (investor and insider) and see how their ideas bounced off of one another.

2. Having Nathan interview you is fine, and I personally trust your judgment when you say bringing someone else wouldn't be an efficient use of resources. That being said I also REALLY liked the idea of you bringing in someone who has a different perspective or contradictory beliefs. We don't want this to be an echo-chamber (which decreases the quality of information) where we are hearing only one side. The beauty is we have this forum to dissect any divergent opinions and present additional evidence allowing us to improve the quality of the information. I'm sure your right that this isn't ideal for this specific instance, but in the future I would love to hear from someone who is intelligent and informed, but might have some differing opinions than you. Assuming, of course, they exist.
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DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 3 - Art Berman 9 months 1 week ago #18

  • ErikTownsend
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Thanks for the feedback, levineam.

We have decided to do Part II with Nathan and me only. If we decide to bring in a trader with an opposing view, we'll do a Part III at some point, but at this juncture I don't think it likely.

If we could get somebody big - say Andy Hall - to argue the opposing case to my bearish short-term thesis, I think that would make for fantastic radio. But wait - we have already said that for all but the most serious pros, it's too late to get in on the short trade - the easy money has already been made on the downside. And if you are talking about how to trade the long side of the upcoming bottom, I don't think the contrasting view plays nearly as well.

For now, we're going to produce Part II with Nathan and me only this week. If the audience asks for more, we'll consider it. But short of that, we want to return to our regular format of doing an expert guest interview each week.

Best,
Erik
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DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 3 - Art Berman 9 months 1 week ago #19

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Loved the Berman episode. No worries on length. It was fascinating. Looking forward to Nathan interviewing Erik this week on how to play the upside when this turns. Thanks for a great show!
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DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 3 - Art Berman 9 months 1 week ago #15

  • levineam
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What do people think of the demand side of the equation? Art and Erik talked mostly about oversupply, aside from briefly mentioning that demand is up.

But according to this article from zerohedge featuring a chart from BofA Merryll Lynch (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-21/oil-crash-result-excess-supply-or-plunging-demand-answer-one-chart) at least in 2015 the price of brent was determined primarily by demand factors.

If the US is joining the global economic weakness, or is already in recession (manufacturing is already in recession and that sector would seemingly be a major consumer of fossil fuels), shouldn't we expect demand to fall even more leading to even more oversupply?

Maybe looking at the supply side accounts for all of these factors, but I was wondering if anyone had any views on this.
Last Edit: 9 months 1 week ago by levineam. Reason: clarification
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DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 3 - Art Berman 9 months 1 week ago #16

  • TraderMatt
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Great podcast Erik & Nathan.

I am really excited about the next installment - I'm personally looking to put on a futures and/or LEAP options position once I see the market has turned a corner.
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DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 3 - Art Berman 9 months 1 week ago #20

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We missed your podcasts very much Erik!!!
each and every one is very deep and covers many topics to be dealing very shortly after the bond market peak , for good.
I would add my input fir the coming trading opportunities in the coming OIL bottom once in a life time ...
I have learned that the forex market and the bond market are the smartest and the earliest indicators , so tracing the capital flow is easy to notice in the forex market.
you can play it on the FOREX as well , EURNOK short , GBPCAD short USDMXN short ...
In general I would focus on European against oil producers correlated currencies at first 2016-17 and latter on against the greenback.
just additional idea from your audience :)
cheers
Ohad
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DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 3 - Art Berman 9 months 5 days ago #23

  • ErikTownsend
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Thanks for the kind words, Ohad!

We'll be producing Part II of the Oil Bottom special tomorrow, so you'll have it soon. Thanks for the idea on FX for tracing capital flows as well!

Best,
Eirk
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DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 3 - Art Berman 9 months 6 days ago #21

  • vsoares
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Hi everyone,

This is the first podcast Im listening to because I saw a post about it in Zero Hedge (I had never heard about Macro Voices, but I am a poor retail investor so I guess I cannot be blamed for that), but I sure am going to listen to the others, I am a big fan of Jim Rogers, I mean who isnt?

I am saying that because I am in no position to compare this podcast to the other ones, but despite that, I found this episode extremelly good. It is really very hard for us retail investors to come by such rich and detailed explanations about any market at all, worse still when it comes to commodities. So in my perspective, the longer the interview the better, because it is a whole lot of information I probably would never find anywhere else. Of course the thing might get to such an extent that it is better to divide the episode in two or more parts, which is exactly what you did, so I think thats perfect.

Finally, I would like to take the opportunity to make a single question, which I think is of major importance in this context but I dont think was answered during the interview. You said that a collapse in the junk bond energy (specially shale) market in almost inevitable, and as Berman puts it, "Its going to be a bloodbath". Well, do you guys know (I am sure you do know) how big a market we are talking about? I mean, how many billion dollars of junk shale bonds are there to be defaulted on? Also, is that a big enough market compared to the US mortgage market back in 2007, such that a colapse in those bonds might cause a similar crash in todays stock market?

Thanks a lot.
Last Edit: 9 months 6 days ago by vsoares. Reason: TYPO
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DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 3 - Art Berman 9 months 6 days ago #22

  • NathanEgger
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@vsoares - First of all, a warm welcome to the MacroVoices forums. I'm glad you found us and took the time to listen to the show!

As to your question, not only is it a good one, but also expertly timed. We've mentioned before that we intend to include a "Mailbag" segment at the backend of the program, and this week is the first week in which we intend to give this segment a trial run. We're going to include your question in said segment this week. If this segment proves to be a popular one with listeners, we'll include it more often.

So make sure you tune in again this week to hear your question answered on the air, and to hear Erik and I discuss how to trade this coming bottom in oil prices. That show will be published by midnight Thursday (March 3rd).



Nathan
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DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 3 - Art Berman 9 months 5 days ago #24

  • vsoares
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I have now listened to episode 1 and am in a better position to give my opinion about the program format. I think interviewing top traders is great, but I felt like the third episode is much more like something unique than the first one. Incidentally, I have listened to another interview with Jim Rogers about a month ago, and I remember distinctly that a lot of what he said then is exactly what he said in episode 1. Things like "I own plenty of gold, and silver. I aint buying it, but I already own some, and if it goes cheaper I will buy more." I mean, his view hasnt changed much in a month, so who can blame him for saying the same thing here? Its like Nathan said, these guys are interviewed hundreds of times a year. They dont have the creativity (and couldnt have, really) to come up with something new every time someone talks to them. So, yeah, Jim Rogers is great, a legend, but I learned much much more by listening to episode 3. Actually, I feel the best parts of episode 1 are the ones when Erik is speaking, because his ideas are all very new to me (that of "every time the world economy is in big trouble we have war", for example, I had never thought about that).

I think episode 3 was also so much better because it was focused in a single topic, which allowed it to be explored in much more detail. Episode 1 basically skims over many topics, never going deep in any of them (gold, bonds, stock market, china, dollar pegs, debt and so forth). Of course, it is impossible to dive deep into so many topics in 1 hour. So I think that, even if the episodes bring a big name to be interviewed, maybe the conversation should be more focused, because we can learn so much more that way. For example, Jim Rogers knows quite a lot about china. Maybe a full hour talking about china with him would be very productive, because I think many people do not understand how their economy works (I certainly dont).
Last Edit: 9 months 5 days ago by vsoares.
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DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 3 - Art Berman 9 months 4 days ago #25

  • btcgoldbull
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Amazing podcast, would also love to hear Erik's thoughts about Natural Gas as well
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DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 3 - Art Berman 9 months 4 days ago #26

  • tankumo
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Yeah Erik, talk about natural gas please.

Also, I hope Nadeem Walayat is wrong, he said oil has bottomed at $25, I have not positioned myself yet, if it were true I would be very sad.
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DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 3 - Art Berman 9 months 1 day ago #27

  • robt
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Like the meaty content of your pcasts. Great discussion and timely to whats going on in the market. Art seems very knowledgeable - as do you erik.

An idea might be to try tie in "revisits" with your guys (like Art) when the situation has fast forwarded to another significant and poignant spot . Like WHEN we get below $20 - it would be good to dial in again?
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