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TOPIC: Gold - Macro Market Discussion

Gold - Macro Market Discussion 8 months 2 weeks ago #1

  • TraderMatt
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So... what's everyone's thoughts on Gold?

I personally will likely be putting on a small options trade here - I think the next move might be back into the channel. Thoughts?
Weekly gold chart attached.

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Gold - Macro Market Discussion 8 months 2 weeks ago #2

  • tankumo
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I had a little inverse fund, and I am losing for now. Hard to say, the daily chart said it should be down a while ago but it is defying gravity.

I would not short aggressively.
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Gold - Macro Market Discussion 8 months 2 weeks ago #3

  • johnjohn
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I think we all know that the gold market is rigged, and probably more so than all the other markets.

Someday physical demand will cause gold to explode higher, but my best guess is that the boyz will take gold lower the next few months so I wouldn't be buying it right now. The gold stocks have moved up quite a bit this year, so I wouldn't be buying them right now either, but I'm certainly not selling any of my gold shares right now.
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Gold - Macro Market Discussion 8 months 1 week ago #4

  • ErikTownsend
    Erik Townsend
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I think the USD rally (will is resume or roll over) is probably the most important factor to watch relative to gold. If the dollar rally is really done, as many are starting to say including Axel Merk on last week's show, that's extremely bullish for gold.

Personally, I think the jury is still out. At this point I'm at about 50/50 as to whether this move we are seeing in gold is the beginning of something, vs. there being one more big down leg which would probably test triple-digit prices.

Best,
Erik
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Gold - Macro Market Discussion 7 months 4 weeks ago #6

  • ACJitsu
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Eric,

If we get that one last big leg down you are anticipating in the metals, will that coincide with a falling stock market until the next form of monetary or fiscal easing is injected into the system?

Thanks,

Anthony
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Gold - Macro Market Discussion 7 months 4 weeks ago #7

  • ErikTownsend
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I'm watching closely to see if the 50-day moving average is violated, so it's still early to say where gold is headed right now.

But in general, yes, my theory is that we have a big whiff of deflation coming, along with a U.S. recession. I think that if there is a really big sell-off in stocks, that gold will get carried down with it. Baby with the bathwater logic - they are selling EVERYTHING in panic, regardless of the fundamentals. If that happens, I think it's a huge buying opportunity for Gold.

I'm not saying to wait for it, however. If the Fed makes an early U-turn toward QE4, all bets are off. What I'm saying is there MIGHT be another wave down for gold, even though it won't seem to make sense. It's all about liquidity.

Erik
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Gold - Macro Market Discussion 8 months 5 days ago #5

  • Roberto
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Most postings of charts have poorly placed lines and channels.
Recommend you go to Market Geometry and pay Tim Morge to teach you.
After that go to Al Brooks and pay to learn all he has to offer.
In that order.
I spent years searching through all the dross in the TA canon.
These two are actually useful. Doesn't mean you will make money of course. Trading the knowledge is a whole additional game.
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