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TOPIC: DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 8 - Bill Fleckenstein

DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 8 - Bill Fleckenstein 8 months 5 days ago #1

  • NathanEgger
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Erik and I had fun listening to Bill's insights on short selling, a subject near and dear to both of our hearts. We did out best to clarify some of Erik's discussion with Bill in our post-interview show wrap up, but if anyone would like to discuss short selling in further detail, Erik and I would be happy to do so here in this thread.

Aside from short selling, any and all feedback is welcome, as always.

Has anyone else been short equities and/or crude in the last month? If so, I'd love to get read some of your experiences and get some other opinions about where these markets are headed next. Let us know!
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DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 8 - Bill Fleckenstein 8 months 4 days ago #2

  • vsoares
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Hi Nathan and Erik,

After listening to episodes 7 and 8, I realized I have a very serious problem when it comes to following the most important information to some markets, specially commodities like oil, particularlly because I dont even know which are the most valuable reports and sources of data, and where to find them. For instance, I had never heard about the Commitments of Traders Reports. I think it might be interesting (I would certainly appreciate) to have an episode about news flow, information sources, all the kinds of periodic reports that exist, their relevance, etc, for the various markets. Or maybe if you dont feel like talking about that in a podcast, maybe you could enlighten me here in forums?

Thank you
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DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 8 - Bill Fleckenstein 8 months 3 days ago #3

  • tankumo
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I would say shorting a sector is much easier and simpler. Especially now we have so many ETF.

I now own a bit of DUST and want to look at ERY, and will look at TZA later when the market goes south.

So to short, I don't want to borrow shares, you have to pay interest and your shares can also be called away anytime.

Inverse ETFs are much easier.

But the daily 3X stuff is not for everybody, I have lost a lot in NUGT and learn the lesson.
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DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 8 - Bill Fleckenstein 8 months 1 day ago #5

  • ErikTownsend
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@vsoares

I'd say keep listening to the show, and pose any questions like this here in the forums. I'll keep in mind the need to explain the data sources we use, but in general I don't think we would do an entire show on that topic.

I'd rather integrate new concepts like Commitments of Traders reports by explaining what they are when they come up in an interview. I'll try to remember in future to spend a little more time explaining the concepts when we bring something new up. Problem is, it's hard for me to know what's going to be a "new subject" for the audience. I'll try...

Best,
Eirk
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DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 8 - Bill Fleckenstein 8 months 1 day ago #4

  • Buckeye
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When I was younger and naively reckless, I'd jump in and short away. As I'm older and a bit more risk averse, not so much. It is crazy that we think the market should be getting crushed but the FED keeps repeating dovish sentiment which can cause huge rallies and "rip your head off" as Bill mentioned. I don't think these FED members should be allowed to spout off whenever they desire. It's too manipulative.

Have been watching CRUDE...Mr. Townsend got stopped out but now is a few $$$ in the money. Good for him.

Love the podcast, no ads and no selling newsletters or subscriptions. Thank you all.

PS. Would welcome more coverage from Erik. He's awesome!!!

Would also love an episode on AUTOMATED TRADING! So many hedge funds are fully automated. I'd love an expert interview.

Yes, I'm an accredited investor but 3/4 of our $$$ is in real estate. I'd welcome shows focusing on accredited investors too. I'm trying to convert real estate to cash over the next few years and have no firm ideas what I'd do with the cash once I get it.
Last Edit: 8 months 1 day ago by Buckeye.
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DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 8 - Bill Fleckenstein 7 months 3 weeks ago #6

  • NathanEgger
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@Buckeye - Thanks for bringing up this idea of having an expert interview with a guy who heads a hedge fund that is completed automated. This is a part of our "present", and one way or another will be a part of our future. If you have any specific names that you'd be interested hearing on the show to discuss automated trading, please let me know. Otherwise, I'll do my own digging and see what I come up with. Our goal for year one of the podcast is to try to cram as many big names into the guest lineup as possible so we can grow our audience, as I'm sure you can sympathize with, but in the future, once we have a strong base, we look forward to bringing you interesting interviews with guests that many may not have heard of, but will offer unique perspective and expertise, like we did with Art Berman.

We also have big plans for accredited investors, and we'll keep you up to date on what we're working on both on the podcast, and here in the forums.

Thanks!
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DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 8 - Bill Fleckenstein 7 months 2 weeks ago #7

  • ErikTownsend
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@Buckeye - Just to add to what Nathan said...

The biggest problem is that the guys you are talking about have so much money they don't have time or interest in being interviewed.

The most famous guy in this category is probably Jim Simons, founder of Renaissance Technologies on Long Island, NY. That was the first truly automated quant fund. I think they started building the software int the mid '80s or something. Medallion Fund, Renaissance's flagship product, is the best-performing investment fund in history, so far as I know, with an long-term IRR well over 30%.

The crazy part is, the fact that I once saw Jim Simons speak in person myself is rather rare. To give you a sense, in they heyday of Renaissance's Medallion, they had a 5 and 44 fee structure. If that terminology is not familiar, it means you take all the risk and they keep almost half the profits for supplying the software to run your money. So you're a real big roller and you're ready to plunk down $25 million, paying their 5 and 44 asking price? Ha! You would have been laughed out of the room. You have to you have to know somebody in order to get into Medallion, and even then a paltry little subscription like $25 million wouldn't be worth their time to fill out the paperwork. But let's say you're a real big roller and can ante up $250 million, so you tell them you're ready to go but you would like them to explain at least a high level overview of their investment process. Their answer will be "None of your business. We don't asnwer questions about how we do what we do. Take it or leave it, and hurry up making up your mind because we have a long line of other rich guys waiting in line behind you."

I don't know exactly what Jim Simons is worth, but figure the number is considerably larger than the GDP of most small nations. The only way you get a guy like that to do a podcast interview is if for some reason he feels a personal passion. So Nathan and I are counting on you, our listeners, to get to Simons and whisper in his ear. Buckeye has the lead! ;)

Erik
Last Edit: 7 months 2 weeks ago by ErikTownsend.
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MACRO VOICES is presented for informational and entertainment purposes only. The information presented in MACRO VOICES should NOT be construed as investment advice. Always consult a licensed investment professional before making important investment decisions. The opinions expressed on MACRO VOICES are those of the participants. MACRO VOICES, its producers, and hosts Erik Townsend and Nathan Egger shall NOT be liable for losses resulting from investment decisions based on information or viewpoints presented on MACRO VOICES.

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