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TOPIC: DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 9 - Raoul Pal

DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 9 - Raoul Pal 7 months 4 weeks ago #1

  • NathanEgger
    Nathan Egger
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Raoul had a ton to say today in his conversation with Erik, but a lot of the conversation, as expected, revolved around the US Dollar story.

I'm looking forward to hearing what you guys thought of Raoul as a guest, first of all, but I'd also love to get a discussion going around the USD. Market participants seem to be pretty divided on the subject, but I sense that more and more people that we're previously in Raoul's camp (Dollar bulls), are starting to slide over into the Axel Merk camp, in feeling that the Dollar rally has come to an end.

Is it just me or is sentiment starting to shift re the Dollar?
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DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 9 - Raoul Pal 7 months 3 weeks ago #2

  • jackstone104
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Hi - just wanted to say people in the institutional community are asking about it too. I was in a Bloomberg chat and somebody asked about Real Vision so it is definitely getting more exposure.

That said, can you please provide the link referenced for Macro Voices listeners? I can't remember a URL that I am listening to on my way into work on the train.

Thanks
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DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 9 - Raoul Pal 7 months 3 weeks ago #3

  • ErikTownsend
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Hi @Jackstone104,

Glad to have you aboard, and hope you're mentioning MacroVoices in those BBG chat rooms! ;)

I'm not clear which link you're asking for. The basic "tell people about it" link is just macrovoices.com. There you're find the home page with all the interviews ready to listen, no subscription or registration required to listen.

We also have "embed" links that allow an audio player to be embedded on another web page. The code for those can be obtained on the homepage.

Hope this helps!

Erik
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DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 9 - Raoul Pal 7 months 3 weeks ago #5

  • jackstone104
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Sorry Erik,

Was referring to the Real Vision link for MacroVoices listeners - I thought you had negotiated a 'better' introductory rate with GMI/Real Vision than the standard one week free on their page. If I am mistaken, my apologies.

As for my focus, skew in the equity derivatives space is so structurally high that it had made upside calls very cheap- we will see if vol starts realizing again this week. I wouldn't at all be surprised to see the 2100 line get touched before resuming to the downside. But relative vol is cheaper in IWM vs SPY here so we will see.

The dollar correlation bet is big and the HYG, BBB bond outperformance vs CCC has been interesting to watch with some level of oil recovery (personally I don't buy the hype and think we will see at least another 50 of the 125 or so marginal companies left out there file). I wonder if the BoJ is the marginal source of liquidity to the US stock mkt and if the JPY stays strong if it will portend recession there and eventually cause the next downturn.

Fulcrum catalysts include the next BoJ and ECB meetings at the end of the month, Brexit, the June FOMC meeting, and obviously earnings season/blackout blah blah blah... but I will be considering position sizing based on how far down we go in spot. I remain mostly cash with opportunistic single name plays. I think a US recession is coming in 2017, but I am more interested in global capital flow based on relative structural issues by region.
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DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 9 - Raoul Pal 7 months 3 weeks ago #9

  • NathanEgger
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@jackstone104 - unfortunately we were not able to negotiate a discounted subscription for our listeners...yet...

Thank you @tankumo and @chiroy for the guest suggestions. Both Saxena and Weldon are on our list and I'm working out times and dates.
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DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 9 - Raoul Pal 7 months 3 weeks ago #4

  • tankumo
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I like the interview a lot.

Gold and US Dollar can go up together right? I have a feeling that both can do well this year.

The other guest I am thinking is this expert here, he was quite accurate last year, have you folks heard of him?

www.weldononline.com/gregoryweldon.aspx
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DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 9 - Raoul Pal 7 months 3 weeks ago #6

  • chiroy
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I thought the interview with Raoul was outstanding.
Like always. Thank you for the excellent information.
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DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 9 - Raoul Pal 7 months 3 weeks ago #7

  • Loni
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Hi Erik,

In my opinion this interview was the best macro discussion so far and one of the best episodes of the show along with the Art Berman discussion. Many thanks.

I strongly recommend Puru Saxena for an upcoming show.

Loni
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DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 9 - Raoul Pal 7 months 3 weeks ago #8

  • tankumo
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I agree, Puru Saxena will be interesting.

I haven't seen his article for a while, so I don't know if he is still active.
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DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 9 - Raoul Pal 7 months 2 weeks ago #10

  • TraderMatt
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I agree with a lot of the commentary in this thread... the interview between Erik and Raoul was one of the best to date. Lots of fantastic topics covered and it really felt like Erik and Raoul were on the same wavelength which led the discussion to some great topics.
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MACRO VOICES is presented for informational and entertainment purposes only. The information presented in MACRO VOICES should NOT be construed as investment advice. Always consult a licensed investment professional before making important investment decisions. The opinions expressed on MACRO VOICES are those of the participants. MACRO VOICES, its producers, and hosts Erik Townsend and Nathan Egger shall NOT be liable for losses resulting from investment decisions based on information or viewpoints presented on MACRO VOICES.

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