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TOPIC: DISCUSSION THREAD: Real Vision TV Encores

DISCUSSION THREAD: Real Vision TV Encores 6 months 3 weeks ago #1

  • Arthur Itarian
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Let's talk about the RVTV encore interviews. These are audio-only MP3s derived from videos originally posted at the Real Vision subscription site.

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DISCUSSION THREAD: Real Vision TV Encores 6 months 3 weeks ago #2

  • Arthur Itarian
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I loved the Fred Hickey interview. He's not someone you see every day, so I didn't know much about him.

Hickey started in the technology industry, then transitioned to newsletter writing with a technology focus. Gradually, as central banks became more intrusive, he was forced to change tactics, and now, his tech recommendations are usually shorts. His long ideas typically involve precious metals miners.

And I'm nearly positive I listened to a magnificent Bill Fleckenstein interview, which may have dropped off. I don't see it now, although I also recommend his Macro Voices appearance ( episode 8 ). Fleckenstein and Hickey have very similar viewpoints. Bill wrote a book criticizing Alan Greenspan, and views more recent central bankers as clueless academics.
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DISCUSSION THREAD: Real Vision TV Encores 6 months 3 weeks ago #3

  • ErikTownsend
    Erik Townsend
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@Arthur Itarian

Thanks for calling the problem with the Bill Fleckenstein RVTV encore to our attention!

We have no idea what caused it to disappear, but the webmaster says it's fixed now and you should find it on the homepage and in the iTunes feed. Please note that it can take several hours before our feed gets updated on iTunes, so it could be delayed there. On our homepage now.

Erik
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DISCUSSION THREAD: Real Vision TV Encores 6 months 3 weeks ago #4

  • Arthur Itarian
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Thanks Erik, I'm listening again now. Here's a little clip from Bill Fleckenstein:

(22:58) "I have another theme away from technology, and that is the mismatch of liquidity. So you've got entities promising daily liquidity, like fixed income bond managers, where there's not a prayer in hell they could get out of the positions if they had a get-out machine."

As an example, he cites Franklin Resources (BEN). Old interviews are fun because you can get instant feedback on predictive success. In this case, BEN traded in the low 40s at the time (August 2015), and is now down to 36. Dividend yield is 2%.

My consistent reaction to Bill is that I NEVER want to attempt shorting. Because you need impeccable accuracy of your research, combined with timing and tactical ability that's almost more art than science.

Elsewhere on RVTV, John Burbank said it's difficult to short bad companies because everybody else is doing it. He's long S&P 500 stocks because US companies improved as a reaction to 2008:

(42:02) "I have this view that American companies are going to win more share than you expect ...."

"The persistence of rationality since the crisis has impressed me."


Interesting perspective, although I suspect the differential may already be factored in to prices. I've noticed that Rick Rule has also spoken positively of US ingenuity, although he's probably not outright bullish on the stock market.
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DISCUSSION THREAD: Real Vision TV Encores 6 months 3 weeks ago #5

  • Arthur Itarian
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I need to have another try at the "Great Reset II" conversation between Grant and Raoul. I was in loud surroundings and having trouble hearing them, especially soft-spoken Grant. But my key takeaway was Raoul's insistence that both the dollar and Treasury prices are going higher.

Bill Fleckenstein (from August 2015), in his own conversation with Grant, staked out the opposite position, beginning at about 35:00. Bill argues that the Fed inflated economic confidence by boosting the US stock market. The dollar rallied because the US was expected to return to rate normalcy before anyone else. Bill expects a realization that the Fed's policies don't work.

(36:23) "Now if the dollar's going up because of the embedded short that so many people think exists, and there's mechanical reasons that don't have anything to do with my reason, then I'll be wrong and the dollar bulls will be right. But if I'm right, and it's a fantasy that's been driven by stock market beliefs, then the peak we saw in March (2015) could have been the end of the rally."

"Everyone likes to laugh at the euro and Mario Draghi, and we've all poked fun at "whatever it takes" and all that, but the fact of the matter is, I could make a bullish case for the euro because you could say, yeah, they fight and they make all this noise in public, and they change the rules, but they have rules that have to be changed. And the Germans fight it, and so you could at least say they have to have a fistfight to do anything, and they move the goalposts slowly, therefore I would rather own the euro than the dollar."
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DISCUSSION THREAD: Real Vision TV Encores 6 months 1 week ago #6

  • Arthur Itarian
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Thanks very much for posting the delightful Rick Rule encore from March, offering insight into his investing background, philosophy and outlook.

[2:52] "I chose the University of British Columbia for two reasons: (1) They had a deep expertise in natural resource finance. The other had more to do with the time, in 1970 when I made up my mind, a young American was gonna travel, that was for sure, a male, and I had a choice in my mind between Vancouver and Saigon. Vancouver, obviously, was a more attractive opportunity -- worse weather, but no one shooting at me."

In his first decade as an investor, Rick underestimated the severity of natural resource bear markets, but he recovered honorably on his way to spectacular success.

[45:50] "What's unique about where we are now is that there's opportunity across the stratum. There are so many resource industries that are selling below their aggregate production cost ...."

At about [49:00], interviewer Grant Williams asks about identifying good management. Rick relies on track record, accepting the risk of missing an emerging superstar.

"Let him or her prove themselves on their own relatives before they prove themselves on your clients. The truth is, one of the beauties of a bear market is, you can buy the best people in the industry for the same price as you can buy the worst."

"People's experience in the immediate past is so bad, that pedigree doesn't matter, nothing matters, it's wonderful!"
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DISCUSSION THREAD: Real Vision TV Encores 6 months 1 week ago #7

  • ErikTownsend
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Glad you're enjoying the RVTV encores, @Arthur Itarian. We're talking with RVTV about how we might collaborate more closely with them in fututre, FYI.

Best,
Erik
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MACRO VOICES is presented for informational and entertainment purposes only. The information presented in MACRO VOICES should NOT be construed as investment advice. Always consult a licensed investment professional before making important investment decisions. The opinions expressed on MACRO VOICES are those of the participants. MACRO VOICES, its producers, and hosts Erik Townsend and Nathan Egger shall NOT be liable for losses resulting from investment decisions based on information or viewpoints presented on MACRO VOICES.

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