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TOPIC: DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 18 - Dr. Ben Hunt

DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 18 - Dr. Ben Hunt 5 months 3 weeks ago #1

  • ErikTownsend
    Erik Townsend
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I really enjoyed interviewing Ben Hunt for today's show. Lots of thought-provoking commentary. Let's hear your questions and comments!

Best,
Erik
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DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 18 - Dr. Ben Hunt 5 months 3 weeks ago #2

  • JohnnyMac
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I really enjoyed this one. I hope you guys at macrovoices bring him back soon.
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DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 18 - Dr. Ben Hunt 5 months 3 weeks ago #3

  • tankumo
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Erik, your guess said gold is just an insurance policy, not a store of value, what is your opinion on gold, thanks.
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DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 18 - Dr. Ben Hunt 5 months 3 weeks ago #4

  • ccc203
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Hi Eric,

I really like this one with Dr. Ben Hunt. Very interesting prospective to analyse the markets via Game theory. Dr Hunt mentioned that a potential 20% devaluation of USD/CNY will be a massive deflation risk to the rest of world. It has tried to break 6.6 level in the last few months. The Chinese central bank kept popping CNY. It kind of echoes with Hugh Hendry's view from Real Vision Podcast posted last week. Hugh Hendry was saying that the world is toasted if that is the case. According to Zerohedge's report, there is a huge Chinese demand for Bitcoin now. I guess that might be the side effect of USD scarcity or noting else left to speculate in China. According Dr Hunt's theory, it is not in China's interest for the FED to raise rate, even if the latest job report didn't disappoint the China central bank would loose the peg to scare off FED's rate hike bluff. Technically and fundamentally, I think the USD/CNY is on the bull trend and if it is up to the Chinese central bank I would guess it would prefer a slow and controlled bull rather than a quick one.

I would like to know what you and other guys think of USD/CNY going forward.

Regards,
ccc203
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DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 18 - Dr. Ben Hunt 5 months 3 weeks ago #5

  • ErikTownsend
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@tankumo

I generally prefer never to argue with a guest if I disagree on a point - I want to let them make their case and let the listeners decide. For that reason I didn't say anything in the interview, but I don't agree with his view on gold at all. I do agree it serves as a useful 'insurance policy' against CB blunders, but I disagree that it's not a store of value.

History shows us that every fiat money system ever conceived eventually collapsed, and so far gold has been what we've failed back to for the last 10,000 years. I am in strong agreement with the THEORY that this doesn't really make a lot of sense - after all gold is just shiny yellow metal without a whole lot of practical uses and its value derives from its scarcity, not its utility. But what's the alternative if not gold? I suppose many would say cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, but I'm not persauaded.

@ccc203

To my thinking the really central issue here is whether the FED is willing to allow the USD to appreciate meaningfully above 100 on the DX, i.e. risking an EM debt crisis. I don't put a whole lot of credence in the so called "Shanghai Accord" theory that a secret deal was made among CBs in February, but I do think that CB policymakers understand the global risks inherent to allowing the USD to appreciate much more than it already has. It remains to be seen how much priority this will be given.

Best,
Erik
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MACRO VOICES is presented for informational and entertainment purposes only. The information presented in MACRO VOICES should NOT be construed as investment advice. Always consult a licensed investment professional before making important investment decisions. The opinions expressed on MACRO VOICES are those of the participants. MACRO VOICES, its producers, and hosts Erik Townsend and Nathan Egger shall NOT be liable for losses resulting from investment decisions based on information or viewpoints presented on MACRO VOICES.

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