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TOPIC: Episode 20 - Professor Steve Keen

Episode 20 - Professor Steve Keen 1 year 7 months ago #1

  • amkc
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Love how Professor Keen is a no-nonsense, straight-shooter. He also brought some alternative currencies to my attention that I previously hadn't heard about. Hope you guys enjoy the latest episode!

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Episode 20 - Professor Steve Keen 1 year 7 months ago #2

  • ErikTownsend
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I wish I'd been more outspoken... I thought the assumptions and complacency about a REMAIN vote were overdone, and I expressed that. But I should have been more outspoken in saying that a LEAVE vote was way more possible than the establishment was estimating.

Midnight now NYC time, and it looks like LEAVE carried the day. Cable traded on a 1.32 handle briefly, now back above 1.35, but still well below the 1.37 major support level.

Technical levels only matter after liquidity returns to the market in the morning, but if present "extreme" levels hold, this could be the next Lehman Moment...

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Episode 20 - Professor Steve Keen 1 year 7 months ago #4

  • MrToad
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One reason markets got caught way offsides on Brexit was that Prediction/Betting markets were showing 25% Probability of Brexit as of 6/22.
These Prediction/Betting markets were, until today, considered far more credible than polls as history had shown them to get it right more often.
So why did they blow it on Brexit. Perhaps someone had a toe on the scale. Perhaps one or more big players placed bets against Brexit in Prediction/Betting markets, but bet the other way in FX and other markets..far larger bets.
I saw mention that hedge funds had commissioned private polls at considerable expense. If they were placing large bets on Brexit that would make sense because it was going to be a close vote.
This post tends to support the manipulation hypothesis: "a few large bettors are skewing the bookie odds dramatically in the favor of Remain, even as the mass of bettors is betting on Leave, albeit with smaller cash amounts" Gee I wonder who those large bettors were?
Last Edit: 1 year 7 months ago by MrToad. Reason: Add more info
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Episode 20 - Professor Steve Keen 1 year 7 months ago #3

  • Michael Gebhart
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Problem with Keen's 100% endogenous money hypothesis is that even without reserve requirements, banks have to maintain reserves to clear their checks between banks, not just worrying about customers pulling money out. That puts upward pressure on interest rates unless the central bank injects reserves.
Hyman Minksy also assumes assets can be bid up with cheap credit without a natural interest rate rising to put a brake on it.

If the Post-Keynesians want to prove the 100% endogenous money hypothesis they should start a bank with no reserves and lend it out:

Last Edit: 1 year 7 months ago by Michael Gebhart.
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MACRO VOICES is presented for informational and entertainment purposes only. The information presented in MACRO VOICES should NOT be construed as investment advice. Always consult a licensed investment professional before making important investment decisions. The opinions expressed on MACRO VOICES are those of the participants. MACRO VOICES, its producers, and hosts Erik Townsend and Nathan Egger shall NOT be liable for losses resulting from investment decisions based on information or viewpoints presented on MACRO VOICES.

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