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TOPIC: DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 21 - Grant Williams

DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 21 - Grant Williams 5 months 1 week ago #1

  • ErikTownsend
    Erik Townsend
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This week's show ran a little long, but we didn't want to cut anything out. Aaron and I thought Grant Williams gave us another fantastic interview, and we hope you'll agree. Aaron is traveling this week, so I'm posting the discussion thread myself this week.

Please note that Grant was kind enough to extend MacroVoices listeners a 10% discount if you want to subscribe to RealVision TV. Just use discount code "MACROVOICES" when you check out. You can also check out Grant's newsletter at www.ttmygh.com.

Please help us promote MacroVoices by telling your friends and colleagues about this interview. The more registered listeners we get, the more able we are to recruit top-name guests for future shows.

All the best,
Erik
Last Edit: 5 months 1 week ago by ErikTownsend.
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DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 21 - Grant Williams 5 months 1 week ago #2

  • Roberto
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Thanks Eric, Grant was good value on Brexit.
I just charted gold and DXY (inverse) to test Grant's idea of both gold and DXY rallying together (ie: correl +1).
The data from 1972 shows this only happens very occasionally for a few months at a time like from Jan09 to Feb09.
Rest of the time the 2 series maintain a very consistently inverse or negative correlation.
So I for one will not be buying gold here as I also expect an overall DXY rally at least into year end.
Only scenario I see to get bullish gold is the intro of QE4 combined with higher fiscal spending and if that then provides a high possibility of inflation.
I also do see the possibility of deflation getting out of hand and thus causing gold to rally at least relatively to other assets. But that would be a much smaller likely scenario but one that has to be in the mix because Ray Dalio has said that the Fed should stay behind the curve of inflation because they have plenty of tools to fight inflation but not to fight deflation.
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DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 21 - Grant Williams 5 months 6 days ago #4

  • ErikTownsend
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@Roberto, you make excellent points. But this is why I'm tempted by the pairs trade long DX, long GC.

Totally agreed that historically these are normally negative correlated. So I can easily see Grand/Raoul's "both go up from here" thesis being disproven. But if this is one of those periods where they move together, it's a double win. If they're wrong and one goes up and the other goes down, the hedge worked - nothing lost. The only way you lose is if both go down together. Hard for me to see that happening from here.

All the best,
Erik
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DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 21 - Grant Williams 5 months 1 week ago #3

  • Michael Gebhart
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Thanks again for a great interview from Mr. Williams.

Think his thesis about gold could go the other way. If we have another deflationary event such as in 2008 you could see gold retest or exceed the previous low in December. Both Jim Rogers and Tim Wood are expecting more lows in gold ahead. Tim Wood is expecting a general low for for commodities coming later this year or early next. There is an 8 year cycle in gold that hits every other election year each of which has nine annual cycles in it.

Here is the 8 year cycle: stockcharts.com/articles/tac/2016/05/tom...pcoming-in-gold.html


Mike
Last Edit: 5 months 2 days ago by Michael Gebhart.
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MACRO VOICES is presented for informational and entertainment purposes only. The information presented in MACRO VOICES should NOT be construed as investment advice. Always consult a licensed investment professional before making important investment decisions. The opinions expressed on MACRO VOICES are those of the participants. MACRO VOICES, its producers, and hosts Erik Townsend and Nathan Egger shall NOT be liable for losses resulting from investment decisions based on information or viewpoints presented on MACRO VOICES.

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