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TOPIC: DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 33 - Michael Lebowitz

DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 33 - Michael Lebowitz 2 months 6 days ago #1

  • amkc
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Are we doomed to continue down this unvirtuous cycle until it breaks? It seems like we're already past the point of redemption but a return to this "saving discipline" is necessary if we want any chance at a recovery. At the end of the day though, it's all talk as long as these academic central bankers think negative interest rates are workable...
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DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 33 - Michael Lebowitz 2 months 6 days ago #2

  • Michael Gebhart
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With Trump in particular its important not to confuse criticism of policy with a change in philosophy. He criticizes low interest rates but has also stated that he is a low interest rate person and the U.S. needs it to compete: blogs.wsj.com/economics/2016/09/12/donal...es-and-janet-yellen/
Most of Trump's economic rhetoric are business friendly mercantilism but I don't think there will be any substantial change if Trump gets in.

In the above article he states:
“I am a low interest-rate person. If we raise interest rates and if the dollar starts getting too strong, we’re going to have some very major problems.” “Now, if inflation starts coming in—and we don’t see any signs of that, but—if inflation starts coming in, that’s a different story. Then you have to go up and you have to slow things down. But right now I am for low interest rates, and I think we keep them low, and we have to compete.”
Last Edit: 2 months 6 days ago by Michael Gebhart.
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DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 33 - Michael Lebowitz 2 months 6 days ago #3

  • Gindala
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I think you should rather call the show North American Macro Voices - that the hosts don't even know what is happening with Deutsche Bank is shocking, it really means that this is a podcast for US-centric investors only. I am not sure how 'macro' you guys are when you are not aware of the major economical news in the rest of the world, especially when these are US major trade partners.
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DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 33 - Michael Lebowitz 2 months 5 days ago #4

  • MichaelMedici
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Not sure if you're a new listener, but obviously you don't listen to every episode because DB derivatives risk (and other European bank risk) was discussed at pretty decent length in 9/15/16 episode with Raoul Pal.

Erik is well aware of DB's issues, but to record a podcast while DB is selling off and try to give a definitive answer on what's happening would be a ridiculous ask. Sure it's easy to Thursday night or Friday morning while you're listening to the podcast, and I'm sure Erik had an idea but commenting on it intraday would have been as good as something on CNBC.

Maybe instead of complaining about someone providing you a massive amount of free information, you could try to add value to the conversation here by sharing why you think DB is selling off today since apparently you have full knowledge of the situation. Just an idea.
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DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 33 - Michael Lebowitz 2 months 4 days ago #6

  • Gindala
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In general I find the guests excellent, and I have been following the show since almost the start, but I do sometimes just skip to the guest interviews since I don't always get that much value from the initial discussions that seem to be very US-centric - of course what happens in the US economy & election affects the whole world, but I do get the feeling sometimes that the hosts are not very aware of what is happening outside their funds / US, which is fine, but delivers less value to listeners outside the US.

In terms of DB, they have a lot of skeletons in their closet, but because of how Germany treated the Greek banks, they cannot bail out DB without political suicide. It's highly unlikely that DB will ever be allowed to collapse (they have a lot of liquidity), but they have been very lucky to escape scrutiny for so long, and they have made quite a few enemies in the EU. If there is a cascade of accusations against them (like the Italian banks just did) during their time of weakness, it could cause financial disruption in the EU which these days turn political very quickly.
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DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 33 - Michael Lebowitz 2 months 5 days ago #5

  • noblelie33
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Blaming the current economic malaise on central bank policy and lack of savings is missing the bigger picture.
I would put greater emphasis on things like demographic changes, debt levels, and decreasing marginal productivity of technology.
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DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 33 - Michael Lebowitz 1 month 2 weeks ago #7

  • Texican
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amkc wrote:
Are we doomed to continue down this unvirtuous cycle until it breaks? It seems like we're already past the point of redemption but a return to this "saving discipline" is necessary if we want any chance at a recovery. At the end of the day though, it's all talk as long as these academic central bankers think negative interest rates are workable...

I believe that there is nothing that can realistically be done about the non-virtuous cycle until the system breaks. The folks at the top are benefiting from the current system so there is no impetus to change. They know it can't go on forever, but as long as it does they are getting wealthier. They have the influence to affect central bank and government monetary policy so we can expect more of the same. These folks are not interested in saving. They have their assets and as long as central banks conjure up free money to inflate their asset classes, they are benefitting. They are not interested in the greater good as long as they believe they can prosper and survive in this environment. It is a typical oligarchy attitude.
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