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Discussion Thread - Louis-Vincent Gave Episode 51

  • PatrickCeresna
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1 year 10 months ago #1 by PatrickCeresna
Louis presentation was fantastic. He has a much different view on the US Dollar and Trump-flation than the broad consensus. Please share any opinions on his views.

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1 year 10 months ago #2 by jheywood
Yes, fantastic. Always a pleasure to hear Louis-Vincent Gave's views. My push-back on his dollar view is ... 1) I question whether governments can simply agree that the dollar be capped. In most cases, monetary levers are in the hands of independent central banks with inflation/employment mandates. Would a joint agreement to intervene against the dollar really work if the US and the rest of the world were set on different rate paths? Would the losses on such intervention be politically feasible? 2) Trump may realize that he can't control the dollar, but that he can (Congress willing) effect a fiscal devaluation through BAT or some "reciprocal tax" system. Even if the dollar adjusts higher, negating competitive effects, the revenues it generates can fund lower tax rates for US corporations. 3) Some tax-advantaged repatriation is likely and the last time we had that, the dollar rallied despite being in a secular bear market.

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