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DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 30 - Jeffrey Christian

  • amkc
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2 years 2 months ago #1 by amkc
Another great interview from Jeff and it was interesting to get his take on the Trump vs. Clinton implications for global markets and precious metals. I think most of us who follow this closely believe that gold and silver will eventually go to the moon but the real question is, when? There is a tendency for those who "cover" (so many conspiratorial bloggers...) precious metals to think central banks are going to lose credibility in an instant and gold won't find an ask overnight and in the next few months. Faced with massive deflationary forces coming out of 2008, and despite the already $180 billion/month central banks are pumping into global markets, it's conceivable that this slow economic death will drag on for a while longer and that this zombie will march onward just a while longer...

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2 years 2 months ago #2 by melville9683
Replied by melville9683 on topic DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 30 - Jeffrey Christian
Great interview as always. It's interesting that he shares the same viewpoint as Satyajit Das, Raoul Pal and Julian Brigden regarding the continuation of the USD rally, albeit at a slower pace.

It seems that Jeffrey along with all the smartest guys and gals in the room on Macro Voices and/or Real Vision have the same opinion on the future of gold. This view point is short to medium term weakness and long term bullishness. I'm of the opinion that short term (up to 2 years) weakness will only exist if the Fed are able to get another rate hike or two in before the business cycle rolls over and we see a recession in the USA that is impossible to ignore with positive guidance. With the both manufacturing and non-manufacturing ISM contracting in August, its difficult to understand how much longer the economic recovery narrative will persist and thus the tightening guidance being communicated by the Fed. Buying gold is starting to feel like a crowded trade, perhaps its just because we keep listening to the smartest people :)
It's also tough to understand what will happen to the USD rally if and when the economic recovery narrative unravels. Given most commenters agree that the rally was started by monetary policy divergence between Fed and BOJ/ECB, how will currency markets react if the Fed softens guidance and the monetary policy gap narrows?

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2 years 4 weeks ago #3 by Texican

amkc wrote: I think most of us who follow this closely believe that gold and silver will eventually go to the moon but the real question is, when? There is a tendency for those who "cover" (so many conspiratorial bloggers...) precious metals to think central banks are going to lose credibility in an instant and gold won't find an ask overnight and in the next few months. Faced with massive deflationary forces coming out of 2008, and despite the already $180 billion/month central banks are pumping into global markets, it's conceivable that this slow economic death will drag on for a while longer and that this zombie will march onward just a while longer...


I agree. Just because something is inevitable, that doesn't mean it's imminent. B)

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