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DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 37 - Hugh Hendry

  • amkc
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2 years 2 weeks ago #1 by amkc
Unbelievable interview with Hugh Hendry and so interesting to hear Hugh talk about shifting to a view of not passing moral judgement on the activities of central banks. How many people are able to reach a level of objectivity where your own moral system bias their ability to capture the market's perception? His idea of using "time-stops" was also fascinating and I'd love to ask him why 2-3y is his stop-level.

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2 years 2 weeks ago #2 by njacko
Replied by njacko on topic DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 37 - Hugh Hendry
Great interview, as always. One quote struck me though:

Hugh Hendry: "Today it's not obvious that we have something for governments really to get behind and to spend a lot of money."

What about tackling global warming, conversion to a low-carbon economy, etc?

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  • Michael Gebhart
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2 years 2 weeks ago - 2 years 2 weeks ago #3 by Michael Gebhart
Replied by Michael Gebhart on topic DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 37 - Hugh Hendry
Keynesian stimulus doesn't work. What fiscal stumulus does is artificially flatten the capital structure. What that means is it shifts resources from longer term projects (requiring more savings) that are productive to shorter term projects which don't yield the return necessary to attract investment.
Here are many studies:
www.imf.org/external/np/seminars/eng/2013/fiscal/pdf/barro.pdf

journalistsresource.org/wp-content/uploa...-Size-and-Growth.pdf

www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp13...90d04469b07de906d880

That is one reason why Europe, isn't likely to have high growth anytime soon.


The U.S. has been shifting from coal which made up about 80% of energy production in the 1980's to about one-third today. Natural gas is a major source now.
Last edit: 2 years 2 weeks ago by Michael Gebhart.

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2 years 2 weeks ago #4 by Bastiat
Replied by Bastiat on topic DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 37 - Hugh Hendry
Pretty clear that fiscal stimulus is inevitable. It is astounding how much run it is getting from investors, the media, and academia, not to mention governments of course. Not only that, but it is talked about like it is a panacea without downside risks. I find it to be very unfortunate personally, but it is clear that it will happen in the next recession. Hugh seems right though, all we ever hear about it roads and bridges and the same old story. Sad that in 2016 they would pour money we do not have into roads and bridges instead of fiber, solar, solidifying the grid, etc.

I also found the time stop very interesting. History suggests I should consider that idea myself. Hard to choose a time that is not utterly arbitrary though.

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2 years 2 weeks ago #5 by amehra
Replied by amehra on topic DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 37 - Hugh Hendry
Great interview! I'm not sure I agree with his idea that the system favored creditors over debtors up until QE righted the balance. Governments and central banks have been favoring debtors with artificially low rates (repeatedly inflating bubbles), tax breaks and the artificial 2 pct inflation target. It was leverage that caused the GFC.

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