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DISCUSSION THREAD: Episode 38 - Willem Middelkoop

  • amkc
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2 years 2 months ago #1 by amkc
There is on additional scenario that Willem brought up back in January that I wish Erik could've asked, and it relates to the United States potentially unilaterally re-issuing a new gold standard - essentially, once again putting the USD back on the gold standard. Needless to this would be a highly inflationary event but since we're in the spirit of thinking about outlier events, it's an interesting scenario to consider...

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2 years 2 months ago #2 by Joesxm
Thanks for having Mr. Middleboro back on. I enjoyed his book, which I bought after listening to the previous interview.

I have some questions regarding the logic behind the dollar gold trade that you have been discussing.

If the dollar index and the price of gold are usually inversely correlated, does this mean that in the normal situation this trade is like putting yourself in neutral?

If so, do you feel that there is a benefit to being neutral in the current environment?

Is the scenario of both the dollar index and the gold price considered to be a low probability scenario, but one that would yield a nice gain?

Both going down would be bad, but you feel that this is a very low probability scenario.

So, is the rationale for doing this trade that the most likely outcome is neutral, with that possibly having some benefit, plus the chance that the less likely outcomes are more likely to yield a profit than a loss?


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2 years 2 months ago #3 by tmicou
Interesting discussion as usual Erik!

How do your beliefs about the middle outcome (or should I say middle finger outcome <g> :lol: ) of no clear winner in the election or a contested election change upon the FBI's news that it found no additional emails that impact their recommendation to not indict HRC among the 650,000 new emails? Could that have been in anticipation of a contested election to attempt to dissuade such behavior on either side by the FBI?

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