Albert Edwards Is Back From Dylan Grice’s Wedding And He (Albert) Is ‘Reinvigorated With Enthusiastic Derision’!
Well, Albert Edwards is back from another global jaunt, and by his own account, he's "reinvigorated with enthusiastic derision."
If you're wondering where Albert's travels took him this time, the answer is to Dylan Grice's wedding at the Dead Sea resort in Jordan. "Rowan and I did the obligatory attempt to swim in the Dead Sea (impossible) and at dusk enjoyed stunning sunsets across the sea, and beyond the twinkling lights of Jerusalem", he writes on Thursday.
After recapping the festivities,
So explain to me why Edwards is negative on the Fed pause if he thinks the economic prospects are so weak that the next recession we are going to hit negative funds rates. Doesn’t make more sense to keep short term rates low now so that we won’t have to cut them to negative in 2 years? It doesn’t look like the economy is running away hot, so what is Edwards’s problem? Keynes to paraphrase suggested that he changed his mind, when facts change. Why can’t the Fed do the same if financial conditions suddenly tighten? I don’t get it…
Well, that’s a good question and it’s something I almost raised in the post itself.
2 things to remember about Albert: 1) he’s a smart guy and he’s been around a long time, so I’m sure if you were to ask him that in person, he would give you a fairly trenchant argument/explanation, 2) he is one of the nicest guys you’ll ever correspond with, so don’t let the mean “permabear” face give you the wrong impression.
But yes, your question is a good one