The Myth of the Tight U.S. Labor Market
Jobs growth is substantially slower than the headline employment data indicate.
The labor market isn’t as strong as it seems.
Photographer: Drew Angerer/Getty Images North America
As the U.S. election cycle gets underway, expect much debate over just how strong the economy really is after becoming the longest uninterrupted expansion in America’s history. After all, the jobless rate is at a half-century low and the S&P 500 Index is at a record high. The bond market, though, is signaling that the Federal Reserve will soon be forced to ease monetary policy to shore up the economy. How can that be?
A key part of the answer lies with jobs “growth,” which has been slowing much more than most probably realize. Despite the better-than-forecast jobs report for June, the fact is the labor force has contracted by more than 600,000 workers this year. And we’re not just talking about the disappointing non-farm payroll jobs numbers for April and May.