Macro Voices Podcasts

Erik Townsend welcomes Francesco Filia to MacroVoices. Erik and Francesco discuss:

• Measuring the equity bubble
• Measuring the bond bubble
• What could be the catalyst be for the reversal?
• Fake market narrative
• Chasing narratives and global growth
• Positive feedback loops
• ETFs and their impact on the markets
• Systemic risks from funds not just banks
• Considerations on European junk bonds
• S&P values vs. share buybacks
• Risks to the market from the short VOL trade

SPECIAL POSTGAME GUEST: The Macro Tourist Kevin Muir discussing bonds, inflation and the coming collapse of the short VIX trade. 

 We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Francesco will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, click “Research Library” and Guest Publications near the top of the page. From there you can download the PDF.

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Erik Townsend welcomes Keith McCullough to MacroVoices. Erik and Keith discuss:

• Bullish narrative on equities 
• Valuation is not a catalyst
• Trends in growth and inflation
• Where are we in the economic cycle
• Global economic divergences
• Growth acceleration puts a lid on market multiples
• Earnings considerations
• Considerations on technology valuations
• Long/short strategies
  
  We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Keith will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, click “Research Library” and Guest Publications near the top of the page. From there you can download the PDF.

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Erik Townsend welcomes back Jeffrey Snider to MacroVoices. Erik and Jeffrey discuss:

• Bastardization of money
• Failure of Primus in 2009
• Reflecting on the failure of AIG
• Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act
• Henry Paulson and Glass–Steagall
• The Eurodollar system going parabolic in the 2000s
• Banks manipulating regulations
• FOMC understanding of Eurodollars
• Big Picture end game of the Eurodollar system

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Jeff will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, click “Research Library” and Guest Publications near the top of the page. From there you can download the PDF.

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Erik Townsend welcomes Grant Williams to MacroVoices. Erik and Grant discuss:

• Outlook for the US dollar
• Update on the Petroyuan oil contract 
• Edge of the Cliff 
• Inflation Risks on the Horizon?
• When is the time for gold?
• Thoughts on cryptocurrencies
• Considerations on interest rates and yields
• Australian real estate
• Perspective on China’s credit bubble
• Writing is on the wall in Europe

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Erik Townsend welcomes Harley Bassman to MacroVoices. Erik and Harley discuss:

• Creation of the MOVE index 
• The three Drivers of Risk:  Duration, Credit, and Convexity
• The demographic of the Baby Boomers continues to drive financial markets
• Looking at the long-term profile of changes in the Labor Force
• Changes in Labor Force growth leads 10-year yields
• Labor participation rates are highly demographic
• Considerations on inflation risks:  Yes…..but not until 2024 when the Boomer/Millennial demographic inflects
• Perspective on CAPE ratio levels
• Correlation of buybacks to cumulative flows
• Gold is not an asset, but rather an alternative currency
• Flow of active to passive management is building a negatively convex foundation
• Triggers for a market correction

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Harley will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, click “Research Library” and Guest Publications near the top of the page. From there you can download the PDF.

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Erik Townsend welcomes back Jeffrey Snider to MacroVoices. Erik and Jeffrey discuss:

• The Basel Accords
• Capital Reserve Ratios
• Understanding risk weightings
• Leverage in bank capital
• Considerations on JPM RiskMetrics
• Basic interbank function
• Interbank function under Basel

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Jeff will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, click “Research Library” and Guest Publications near the top of the page. From there you can download the PDF.

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Erik Townsend welcomes Art Berman to MacroVoices. Erik and Art discuss:

• Comparative inventory levels on oil 
• Oil price responsive to inventories
• Realization price recovery in crude prices takes time
• Refinery intakes have not recovered
• Where are average consumption levels
• Outlook on gasoline & distillate stocks
• Backwardation on WTI
• Considerations on OPEC-NOPEC production cuts
• Global market balance on oil

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Erik Townsend welcomes Jeffrey Christian to MacroVoices. Erik and Jeffrey discuss:

• Outlook on the US Dollar
• Global de-dollarization
• Outlook on gold and silver
• Considerations on basic materials
• Why are grains so weak?
• Considerations on new crude oil contract with settlement in yuan, backed by gold 
• The next Fed Chairman
• ECB policy considerations and decentralization trends in Europe
• Considerations on the Russian economy
• Credit issues in China

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Erik Townsend welcomes back Jeffrey Snider to MacroVoices. Erik and Jeffrey discuss:

• The case of the missing money
• Transformation of banking into a wholesale model
• Radical monetary evolution
• Wholesale vs Offshore Eurodollars
• Understanding the great inflation of the 1970s
• Repo markets of the 1970s
• Development of the Shadow Banking System

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Jeff will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, click “Research Library” and Guest Publications near the top of the page. From there you can download the PDF.

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Erik Townsend welcomes Mark Yuskov to MacroVoices. Erik and Mark discuss:

• US Dollar bear thesis from 2016
• Petrodollar world
• Ascendance of the Renminbi
• Treasury bonds as a reserve asset
• Crude oil contract traded in yuan convertible to gold
• One Belt One Road Initiative
• Has the blow off top on the dollar occurred?
• Incrementalism

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Mark Yusko Interview Part 2: All Things Macro 

• Is there room for further upside on the stock markets?
• Is the secular bond bull market over? 
• Inflation outlook
• Precious metals and commodities

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Erik Townsend welcomes Mark Grant to MacroVoices. Erik and Mark discuss:

• Outlook for the US Dollar and Euro
• Where are the US equity markets going?
• Impact of Global CB policy vs the FED
• Is the 35-year bond bull market over?
• Impact of the hurricanes on the economy
• Outlook for Gold and Silver
• Considerations on European geopolitics
• Perspectives on China’s credit bubble
• Underfunded pension crisis
• Escalation of North Korea tensions

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Erik Townsend welcomes Hugh Hendry to MacroVoices. Erik and Hugh discuss:

• Global economic outlook
• Is wage and price inflation coming?
• Outlook for the US dollar
• Where are interest rates and the yield curve going?
• Bond volatility vs. steepener
• Consideration on precious metals
• Outlook for the Global equity markets
• The credit bubble in China
• Outlook for the Macro hedge fund industry

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Erik Townsend welcomes Luke Gromen to MacroVoices. Erik and Luke discuss:

• Why be bearish on the US Dollar?
• Do budget deficits matter?
• New yuan oil contract changing global landscape
• Impact on global Eurodollar system
• Long gold, short oil
• What is wrong with a new QE?
• Impact on global holding of Treasury Bonds
• Is inflation in the US a risk?
• Is the economic endgame starting?

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview as Erik and Luke will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, click “Research Library” and Guest Publications near the top of the page. From there you can download the PDF.

Get embed code for this episode. | For other embed code options click here. | Download the audio MP3 File (53.77 MB) . | Download the podcast transcript:   pdf Here (628 KB)

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Erik Townsend welcomes back Jeffrey Snider to MacroVoices. Erik and Jeffrey discuss:

• How Dollar becomes ‘Dollar’
• Bankers’ Acceptances
• The Evolution of Eurodollars
• Where do Eurodollars come from?
• Money as interbank liabilities
• What exactly are Eurodollars?
• Transformation of banking into a wholesale model

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Jeff will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, click “Research Library” and Guest Publications near the top of the page. From there you can download the PDF.

Get embed code for this episode. | For other embed code options click here. | Download the audio MP3 File (62.84 MB) . | Download the podcast transcript:   pdf Here (715 KB)

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Erik Townsend welcomes Joe McMonigle to MacroVoices. Erik and Joe discuss:

• Is the oil supply glut rebalancing?
• Is OPEC just jawboning the market?
• Import data impacting oil inventories
• Outlook for U.S. oil production
• Update on Venezuelan geopolitics
• What can go wrong with Iran?
• Is the Petrodollar system at risk?
• Is the Saudi Aramco IPO going to happen?
• Is the term structure signaling bullish prices

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Erik Townsend welcomes Josh Crumb to MacroVoices. Erik and Josh discuss:

• Perspectives on what is gold?
• Energy defining the price of gold
• Interest rates influence on gold
• Gold vs. cryptocurrencies
• Government sponsored cryptocurrencies
• Outlook for the US dollar
• Forecast for gold prices
• Impact stock market volatility would have on gold prices
• Considerations on silver and bitcoins
• Allocated vs. unallocated gold and gold ETFs

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Erik Townsend welcomes Neil Howe to MacroVoices. Erik and Neil discuss:

• What is the Fourth Turning?
• Why the Fourth Turning started with GFC
• Is there another big global event on the horizon?
• Future changes in political landscape
• What to expect for the next decade?
• Impact of baby boomers retiring
• Understanding the Homelander generation
• Silent vs. Homelander generation
• Reflections on the Fourth Turning book and new consideration

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Erik Townsend welcomes Raoul Pal and Julian Brigden to MacroVoices. Erik, Raoul and Julian discuss:

• Views on the US Dollar
• Perspectives on equities and business cycle?
• Outlook on the bond bull market
• Will we see a new bull market in precious metals?
• Demographics and Japan
• Considerations on the coming pension crisis
• Where is oil going next?
• Parallels to the 1990’s business cycle

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Erik Townsend welcomes Chris Whalen to MacroVoices. Erik and Chris discuss:

• Perspectives on the U.S. dollar pullback
• Considerations on the overvalued equity markets
• Corporate debt and interest rate trends
• Outlook on bonds and levels of private debt
• Trump bump and the aftermath
• Is the secular bond bull market over
• Reflecting back on Chris’s book – Inflated
• Considerations on the coming pension crisis
• Highlights on Chris’s new book – Ford Men

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