Macro Voices Podcasts

Erik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Paul Krake to MacroVoices. Erik and Paul discuss:

• The bond market blowup in the context of the U.S. Presidential election 
• Prevailing narrative of fiscal stimulus given a Republican sweep of Congress
• Ripping up the investment playbook under a Trump presidency
• Violent rotation out of long-bond proxies into higher growth, higher rate assets
• The resulting balance sheet and pension destruction from the rotation
• Validity of rising inflation expectations and timeline for commodity price uplift
• U.S. Dollar breakout's adverse effects on Emerging Market equities and fixed income
• Potential for a disorderly rise in interest rates and the U.S. Dollar
• Unwinding of overcrowded Emerging Markets trades
• Gold losing its predictive ability and relevance
• China debt dynamics and potential RMB devaluation in the context of limiting social unrest
• China's growing sphere of influence in Asia-Pacific as the U.S. embraces isolationism
• 'Legal grabs' leading to waning U.S. hegemony
• State of the global commodities supercycle
• Tailwinds for the Japanese economy and equities despite structural demographic issues

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Erik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Dr. Harald Malmgren and Dr. Pippa Malmgren to MacroVoices. Erik, Harald, and Pippa discuss:

• Trump's governance effectiveness in light of the enemies he has made on the campaign trail
• What Trump's dollar-spend per voter portends for the moneyed lobbyists
• Sources and potential escalation of social unrest and riots in the aftermath of Trump's victory
• The long-running trend of repressive economic conditions and Fed policy leading to unrest
• The potential for Trump to galvanize the determination, grit, and work ethic of the American electorate
• Whether markets are prematurely jumping to the conclusion that Trump is necessarily inflationary
• Constitutional limitations pertaining to specific policies espoused by Trump during the campaign
• Outlook for foreign relations with China, Russia, and Mexico
• The big picture behind the global populist movement and where it might be headed next
• Breakdown of the social contract and the collapse in the government's ability to function and meet entitlements

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An interview which was originally published on October 18, 2015 between Raoul Pal of Real Vision and Dr. Brett Steenbarger, Clinical Associate Professor of Psychiatry & Behavioral Science at SUNY Upstate Medical University.

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Erik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Willem Middelkoop to MacroVoices. Erik and Willem discuss:

• Willem's recent book The Big Reset and the coming monetary reset
• The role the IMF's SDR will play in the next monetary reset
• China's strategic objectives and pushing for the use of SDRs as the global reserve currency
• Outlook for the U.S. dollar's reserve currency status in a Big Reset scenario
• Outlook for the coming secular commodity reflation cycle
• Willem's call to buy precious metals and miners in January 2016
• Gold outlook in the current macroeconomc and geopolitical environment
• Long-run dynamics of monetary history, demographics, and revolution
• Whether Western democracy is still viable
• Alternative forms of government given China's 5000-year history as a civilization
• Trump vs. Clinton Presidencies and potential market impacts

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Erik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Hugh Hendry to MacroVoices. Erik and Hugh discuss:

• USD breakout and binary consideration of US economy's condition in a strong-dollar environment
• Brexit contagion and likelihood of strong vs. weaker countries disbanding from the EU
• What the German-Italian sovereign spread portends for EU disintegration probabilities
• Prescriptions for Japan given much greater cultural and political homogeneity
• Evolution of views on developed market equities
• The "time stop-loss" and when it's appropriate to pivot theses
• Global transfer from creditors to debtors via the machinations of QE
• Opinions on QE's efficacy at avoiding an outright global depression
• Government's inability or unwillingness to move on fiscal reform and stimulus
• Where US TSY's are headed next
• Hugh's response to Kyle Bass' China devaluation thesis
• Maintaining intellectual honesty in the face of professional ramifications

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An interview which was originally published on July 1, 2016 between Grant Williams of Real Vision and Kyle Bass, Managing Partner, Chief Investment Officer, Portfolio Manager, and Founder of Hayman Capital Management.

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Erik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Robin Griffiths to MacroVoices. Erik and Robin discuss:

• Technical and cyclical frameworks for evaluating financial markets
• Hierarchy of cycles from seasonal variation to generational
• Central bank intervention and impact across various cycles
• Potential panicked selloff for the trade-weighted U.S. dollar
• Outlook for global equities and central bank-induced flash crashes
• Treasury outlook and relationship with longer-term cycles
• Developed markets on-going secular decline despite record equity market
• Emerging market equity outlook, in particular China and India
• Gold's resistance at $1,400 and ability to shoot back to all-time highs
• Technological and demogrpahic tailwinds for developed markets
• Trump vs. Clinton impacts on markets

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Erik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Mark Yusko to MacroVoices. Erik and Mark discuss:

• Bearish outlook for and reserve status deterioration of U.S. dollar
• The "Everything Bubble" and similarities to 2000
• Central banks running out of rope and credibility
• Misplaced comparisons between Deutsche Bank and Lehman Brothers
• Rumored Deutsche Bank "white knights" in Qatar and China
• Political and social implications for foreign ownership of the European banking system
• Exciting trends and generational opportunities in China retail and eCommerce
• Investment opportunities in other emerging market economics in light of weak dollar thesis
• Potential longs in the oil and gas space following the supply shock in prices
• Dangerous paradigm of buying stocks for yield and bonds for capital appreciation
• Yield-enhancement, short-VIX strategies employed by pension funds
• Trump vs. Clinton implications for financial markets

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An interview which was originally published on July 20, 2016 between Grant Williams of Real Vision and Michael Lewitt, founder of The Credit Strategy Group and writer of The Credit Strategist, a popular and acclaimed investment newsletter.

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Erik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Simon Hunt to MacroVoices. Erik and Simon discuss:

• Internal political wars within China stagnating economic growth
• China's steady, step-wise approach to allowing firm bankruptcies
• Shift in global monetary policy power from Washington to Beijing
• Internal IMF battle for RMB's inclusion in SDR
• Looming inflation in commodity prices
• Logic behind China's stockpiling of raw commodities and base metals
• Strengthening strategic alliance between Russia and China
• Trump vs. Clinton impacts on financial markets
• Growing global discontent to USD "bully boy" tactics and de-dollarization
• Impending global stock market crash and economic reset within the next 5 years
• Gold's eventual reemergence as the global monetary base

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Erik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Michael Lebowitz to MacroVoices. Erik and Michael discuss:

• The saving discipline that drives the virtuous economic cycle and sustains prosperity
• A global economy untethered from demographics and productivity
• End game for the unvirtuous cycle of debt-fueled consumption
• Outlook for negative interest rate policies
• Brexit as representative of larger social, geopolitical, and wealth distributional forces
• Japan outlook given worst-in-class demographics and productivity growth
• Alternatives for savers throughout the demise of the virtuous cycle
• Trump v. Clinton impacts on global financial markets

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An interview which was originally published on April 14, 2016 with Roy Sebag and Josh Crumb, co-founders of Bitgold, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Strategy Officer of Goldmoney, respectively.

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Erik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Alex Gurevich to MacroVoices. Erik and Alex discuss:

• Market reaction to latest FOMC policy decision
• Concurrent necessity and dominance of the long U.S. dollar trade
• Importance of placing current Fed actions in the context of historical rate-hiking cycles
• Egregiously cheap valuations on 10-year Treasury Notes
• Where we stand in the current bond bull market
• Gold's positive risk-reward and return expectations in the coming years
• Arguments for a long-Nikkei trade
• Opportunities in USD/JPY
• China's $30 trillion private debt unwind and history of imperial collapse
• Migrant and political crises' effects on the future of the Euro
• Capital market impacts of a Trump or Clinton presidency

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Erik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Raoul Pal to MacroVoices. Erik and Raoul discuss:

• Structural issues in LIBOR and Eurodollar markets as bullish for USD
• Outlook for Treasuries given recent sell-off in bonds
• Update on Raoul's business cycle framework
• 100% probability of recession following 2-term U.S. presidencies
• Recent spat of "Billionbears" coming to the forefront with downside calls
• Brexit contagion spreading into the rest of Europe
• Crowded risk-parity trades and reasons behind all-time short-VIX open interest
• Gold and USD pairs-trade timeline and expectations
• Monetary policy and the Fed's growing irrelevancy
• Precarious state of and systemic risk of the European banking sector
• Potential moonshot in soft commodities due to weather cycles
• Updates on new Realvision TV products and initiatives

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A conversation on April 4, 2016 between Grant Williams and Michael Schneider, Chief Investment Officer of Brookline Partners.

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Erik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Jeffrey Christian to MacroVoices. Erik and Jeffrey discuss:

• U.S. Dollar predictions and the range-bound outlook
• Brexit contagion and potential impacts on gold and silver
• Forward near-term guidane for gold and silver prices
• Outlooks for macroeconomic drivers of precious metals
• Economic and financial susceptibility given middling global GDP growth
• Rejecting old mental models with unprecedentedly low real and nominal interest rates 
• Excess reserve accumulation backfiring against Fed intentions
• Continued expected disinflationary and deflationary forces until monetary and/or fiscal policy shifts
• Low probability of a medium-term moonshot in precious metals prices assuming continued disinflation
• Billionaire investors going public with bearish economic and market calls
• Degradation of global political cooperation
• Trump vs. Clinton implications for global markets and precious metals

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Erik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Art Berman to MacroVoices. Erik and Art discuss:

• Looking beyond absolute inventory numbers and gleaning insights from comparative inventories
• Recent anomalous comparative builds relative to historic trends
• Continued time-spread compression reflecting producer hedging or lack of concern for a storage crisis
• The selective capital raising environment for producers
• Oil market balance and Saudi Arabia's fundamentally ineffectual 'production freeze'
• Stabilizing US production and evaporation of upside price catalysts
• Feedback loop of insanity in inventory builds and production
• Claims of sub-$40 producers in the Permian basin
• Concerns over consumption growth not aligning with change in prices
• Timing for a moonshot in oil prices following a period of supply destruction and investment deficits

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A conversation on January 5, 2016 between Grant Williams and Willem Middelkoop, founder of the Commodity Discovery Fund and author of the worldwide bestseller The Big Reset.

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Erik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Dr. Gary Shilling to MacroVoices. Erik and Gary discuss:

• The continued perception of the U.S. Dollar as a safe haven currency
• Why the long-bond trade isn't over and illuminate the forces driving yields lower
• Reasoning behind going long defensive stocks despite a bearish view on equities
• Time-horizon for $20 oil
• The global commodity supply overhang
• Helicopter money in the form of infrastructure and defense spending
• The impacts of a Clinton or Trump presidency on markets

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Erik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Jeffrey Snider to MacroVoices. Erik and Jeffrey discuss:

• Rich equity valuations despite an on-going earnings recession
• Off-track corporate cash flows and profits as evidence of a weakening economic environment
• The mainstream misconception and myth that the Fed provides liquidity thereby levitating equity valuations 
• The chronic and acute dollar shortage as evidenced by the decaying post-2007 global eurodollar system
• Global central banks resorting to sellng Treasuries as a means to filling dollar funding gaps
• Milton Friedman's Interest Rate Fallacy and how long-run low interest rates demonstrate tightness of money supply
• How the tight-dollar environment manifests itself in the increasingly disorderly global repo market
• The complete disconnect between inferred interest rate bearishness in eurodollar futures and QE as liquidity
• TED-spread volatility and other wholesale financial measures suggesting central banks might be losing control
• The Fed's inadequate response to the structural contraction in the global eurodollar system
• Wholesale eurodollar system not tracking with prior exponential growth and demonstrating permanent monetary disruption
• How the preponderance of evidence necessitates a systemic reset
• Why central bankers lack the answers by being married to an incongruent monetary framework
• The potentially galvanizing catalyst between nations in lieu of a serious crisis

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