Macro Voices All-Stars

All-Star Juliette Declercq and Erik discuss:

• Update on Juliette’s outlook – still cautiously bullish
• Manufacturing stagnation vs. services outlook
• Central bank impotence and its impact on markets
• Juliette’s assessment of the 2019-nCoV Coronavirus and its likely impact on markets

All-Star Louis-Vincent Gave and Erik discuss:

• The “melt-up” has been driven by five primary macro drivers. All of them will come under pressure in 2020
• Why Warren Buffet’s underperformance in 2019 is an important market signal
• Where Louis will invest the chips he takes off the table from the stock market at record highs

All-Star Jeff Snider and Erik discuss:

• “Not QE”, Repo Bailouts & more: Where does it end and why is it necessary to start with?
• Reconciling improved unemployment reports with Jeff’s criticisms of CB policy
• Distinguishing R* from true Economic Potential
• The real causes of slack in the economy and underperformance against economic potential

Supporting Materials for Download

The R-star Fallacy: There Are No Strong Dollars 

All-Star Brent Johnson and Erik discuss:

• U.S. Dollar review and outlook
• Why Brent remains long-term bullish on stocks but thinks the market may be overbought at current levels
• Short vs. long-term outlook for Gold

Supporting Materials for Download

MacroVoices All-Stars #87 Brent Johnson Chartbook - 01 06 2020 

All-Star Luke Gromen and Erik discuss:

• Luke’s prediction from November 11^th: What if the Repo Spike was the “risk off event everyone was waiting for”?
• Why Luke believes the event already happened and we’ve entered a new era of “Whatever it Takes” for the U.S. Federal Reserve
• Luke’s outlook for stocks, bonds, precious metals and crypto

All-Star Jeff Snider and Erik discuss:

• Reviewing how we got here (datapoints from 2017 and 2018 thru 2019)
• Another terrific chart deck
• Jeff’s outlook for 2020

Supporting Materials for Download

It Is A Eurodollar World 2 : There Are No Strong Dollars - Jeff Snider 2019 12 23 

Anatomy of the US Dollar End Game 

Out Of The Onion Wars, Why Are There Only Losers? 

All-Star Louis-Vincent Gave and Erik discuss:

• What’s driving the S&P 500 Christmas Rally and what lies ahead
• Apple’s outperformance, what it means, and how it relates to the trade war
• The return of inflation and what it means for markets
• Gold outlook

All-Star Jeff Snider and Erik discuss:

• Comparing the popular narrative of rapidly improving sentiment with global dollar liquidity indicators
• Beyond Trade Wars and Trump Tweets: What liquidity indicators are actually telling us about the global economic outlook
• The “King Dollar” meme: Why a strong USD doesn’t necessarily imply U.S. economic outperformance

Supporting Materials for Download

It Is A Eurodollar World : There Are No Strong Dollars - Jeff Snider 2019 12 09 

Reuters article: BIS on Causes of Repo Shock 

BIS Quarterly Review 

All-Star Dr. Pippa Malmgren and Erik discuss:

• The real reason the Hong Kong protests have centered on Hong Kong Polytechnic University
• Faith in large institutions and the complacency of investors relative to associated risks
• Why Pippa remains bullish on technology innovation and global growth despite geopolitical risks

All-Star Brent Johnson and Erik discuss:

• Two potential trajectories for the U.S. Dollar Index
• Why Brent thinks stocks still have higher to go, even from these lofty levels
• China, trade deal, and currency rate component of the trade deal
• Canadian Interest Rates
• Gold outlook

Supporting Materials for Download

All-Stars #81 Brent Johnson Slidedeck 

All-Star Prof. Steve Keen and Erik discuss:

• Steve’s 2016 prediction that the Fed would eventually be forced to return to QE and why current events prove it true
• Costs and benefits of QE in the real world
• Private debt and the inflated corporate bond market as a result of QE translates to higher risk for the next financial crisis

Supporting Materials for Download

Tilting At Windmills: The Faustian Folly Of Quantitative Easing 

All-Star Louis-Vincent Gave and Erik discuss:

• Update on latest status from Hong Kong
• The bigger picture: Civil unrest around the globe, what’s driving it, what we should expect next
• The return of Inflation: Louis’ market outlook

All-Star Jeff Snider and Erik discuss:

• Markets grinding to new all-time highs on relief that the recession scare is now over and forgotten.
• History teaches us it’s not over, but widespread complacency that it is typifies this point in the cycle
• Everyone is assuming that a trade deal will “fix everything”. Jeff says that belief is misplaced as well.

Supporting Materials for Download

Is It Over? Or just Intermission of a Two Act "Dollar" Play - Jeff Snider 

All-Star Luke Gromen and Erik discuss:

• Update on monetary policy: Monetization by any other time is ok, but call it what it is and you’re a crackpot conspiracy theorist!
• Market outlook for non-monetization: Gold bull run could pause a little longer, but stocks already heading higher
• What if the ‘risk off event everyone’s been waiting for’ already happened in the form of the Repo crisis?

All-Star Juliette Declercq and Erik discuss:

• Monetary policy outlook
• Are central banks using up all their ammunition, leaving themselves vulnerable to the next crisis?
• Translating Juliette’s macro outlook to actionable trading strategies

All-Star Dr. Pippa Malmgren and Erik discuss:

• Civil unrest around the globe: What’s driving it and what does it mean?
• How technology will contribute to both the problem and its solution
• Update on President Trump’s post-White House aspirations for a news media empire
• Why Pippa remains optimistic on global growth and stock prices

All-Star Brent Johnson and Erik discuss:

• Why Brent was able to see new highs coming for stocks, despite his own reservations about the economy
• Why Brent expects Christine Lagarde to make a big splash when she takes office as the new ECB chief
• Gold market update, including why Brent still thinks a deeper correction is coming before Gold moves to new all time highs

All-Star Prof. Steve Keen and Erik discuss:

• Changing of t Guard: Populism on the rise globally and what it means
• Brexit: Will it happen and what does it mean for markets?

All-Star Jeff Snider and Erik discuss:

• Why “base money” really isn’t base money
• Fed announcements in perspective
• What’s really missing: The dealers who used to supply global dollar liquidity

Supporting Materials for Download

What Is Money? Misplaced Focus on Bank Reserves & the Fed 

All-Star Julian Brigden and Erik discuss:

• Julian weighs in on Saudi oil infrastructure attacks and the rise of geopolitical risk generally
• Chinese monetary policy: Is it as important now as it was in 2016?
• Understanding why the Fed is discouraging investors from thinking of Friday’s treasury buying announcement as “QE”