Macro Voices All-Stars

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All-Star Jeff Snider and Erik discuss:

  • Anomalous behavior of EFF relative to IOER in 2018/19
  • Why the Fed describes IOER as a floor or double-floor BELOW EFF
  • Why it doesn’t work that way in the real world
  • Contrasting Jeff’s views with Luke Gromen’s “balance sheet capacity” argument
  • Why treasuries and other sovereign credits are really balance sheet instruments, not investments
  • Japanese vs. U.S. over-indebtedness and implications

Jeff Snider Chartbook July 30 2019 


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All-Star Danielle DiMartino Booth and Erik discuss:

  • What to expect from this week’s FOMC
  • Will we get a 50bps cut or just 25?
  • Is there a risk that a 25bps cut would disappoint markets and still lead to a big correction?
  • How will the ECB and other central banks react?
  • What’s in store when Christine Lagarde eventually takes the helm of the ECB in November?


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Pippa Malmgren

All-Star Pippa Malmgren and Erik discuss:

  • Iran geopolitical situation – what’s at risk and what comes next?
  • Update to Pippa’s prediction Donald Trump has aspirations of a major media empire after the White House
  • Personal data monetization trends and Facebook’s record $5bn fine for privacy violations


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All-Star Julian Brigden and Erik discuss:

  • If central banks are powerless to contain deflationary pressures, what are the implications for Pensions?
  • Is it possible to enter recession without first seeing a 2s10s curve inversion?
  • Longer-term outlook for bond yields, esp. U.S. 10yr

 


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All-Star Luke Gromen and Erik discuss:

  • Luke says the real reason for the coming rate cut is to enable US private sector financing of government deficits
  • Luke elaborates on his views about balance sheet capacity driving FF>IOER
  • Luke’s expectations for market moves when a debt ceiling increase is confirmed


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All-Star Danielle DiMartino-Booth and Erik discuss:

  • As Danielle explained in her prior interview, the U.S. economy isn’t immune to the global growth slowdown.
  • But what about Brent Johnson’s view that a global safety trade could keep the stock market party going a while longer?
  • Danielle’s take on the possibility of President Trump bypassing the Fed and intervening to weaken the dollar through executive action
  • Why we should be thinking about the possibility of #DoubleEasing – both QE and rate cuts at the same time


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SteveKeenArticle

All-Star Prof. Steve Keen and Erik discuss:

  • How the field of economics lost its way and lost touch with how the real world actually works
  • Several examples of clear disconnects between widely accepted economic theory and real-world actuality
  • Prof. Steve’s book recommendations for those who want an interpretation of Economics that’s a little closer to reality than the mainstream


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JeffSnider AllStars

All-Star Jeff Snider and Erik discuss: 

  • Review of Fed Funds rate and Interest on Excess Reserves (IOER) – what do they mean and why are they important
  • The theorydescribing how the Fed believed that IOER would effectively cap the Fed Funds rate within their target range
  • Hard data shows the theory doesn’t match actual reality
  • Jeff’s explanation of what’s really going on, and why a shortage of USD liquidity in the global offshore Eurodollar market is what’s really driving the observed behavior of Fed Funds and IOER

 All-Stars Jeff Snider Chartbook July 15 2019 


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JulianArticle

All-Star Julian Brigden and Erik discuss:

  • What should we make of crypto currencies suddenly making a come-back? And what about Facebook’s Libra project?
  • Why Julian remains bullish Gold, and his outlook for Silver
  • Why Julian is turning bearish on the USD


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MVAS Luke

All-Star Luke Gromen and Erik discuss:

  • Everyone was so focused on the Jobs number that they missed the re-widening of Fed Funds over IOER, which is more important according to Luke
  • Luke explains the significance of FF > IOER, what it means, and what the consequences are
  • Luke’s take on the global dollar squeeze thesis we’ve discussed extensively on MacroVoices
  • Why the dollar squeeze doesn’t deter Luke from being bearish on the USD and bullish on risk assets, gold, and Bitcoin
  • Luke’s outlook for how things will play out from here in markets


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BrentJohnsonArticle

All-Star Brent Johnson and Erik discuss:

  • Brent says he was caught by surprise by the Gold breakout, but he’s still not chasing it
  • Ultimately, Brent thinks Gold will move much higher, but still questions whether this is really the time
  • Brent’s conviction that the USD is headed higher has never been stronger
  • But he also points out that he las long predicted Gold and the Dollar would eventually move higher together, and this may have begun
  • Brent says 4,000+ on the S&P 500 is entirely possible in the next year or two, not because of strong fundamentals but because Brent believes the U.S. Stock market will become the global safety trade benefactor


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MVAllStar LouisVincentGave

All-Star Louis-Vincent Gave and Erik discuss:

  • U.S. Stock Market at all-time highs, but bond markets are also very high. Is this about foreign capital using U.S. markets as a “safety trade?”
  • Is Deutche Bank’s current distress the new “Lehman Moment” that could indicate coming distress for the entire financial sector?
  • Will Hong Kong real estate crash as a result of China’s aggressive policy moves and Carrie Lam’s Extradition Bill debacle?


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MVAS Pippa

All-Star Dr.Pippa Malmgren and Erik discuss:

  • How Trump's "photo ops" have been making waves in the markets
  • Why Facebook's Libra raises fundamental questions about our roles as consumers, investors, and private citizens
  • Why privacy will be "the governance issue of our time"


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JulietteArticle

All-Star Juliette Declercq and Erik discuss:

  • Does Christine Lagarde’s appointment to head the ECB change the Financial Repression outlook?
  • Macron is still the chief architect of who has power in Europe
  • Outlook for ECB policy leading up to the U.S. Election
  • Effect on asset prices
  • Conclusion: Giving power over the ECB to someone with strong relationships with EU leaders AND a strong fiscal background has to be a good thing


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DanielleArticle

Today's All-Star Danielle DiMartino Booth and Erik discuss: 

  • Economic conditions are deteriorating globally. We’re in a global recession.
  • The U.S. Can’t stay de-coupled from global economic slowdown indefinitely!
  • Danielle’s take on the feud between the Fed and the Trump Administration
  • Why monetary policy must remain independent from political influence


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SteveKeenArticle

All-Star Prof. Steve Keen and Erik discuss:

  • Why economists don’t consider Credit in their Aggregate Demand models
  • Why they’re wrong, and why credit matters
  • Detailed review of credit’s role in aggregate demand

Prof.Steve Keen - Credit Bubbles 


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JeffSnider AllStars

All-Star Jeff Snider and Erik discuss:

  • Treasury and Eurodollar LIBOR yield curve inversions
  • Fed Funds Money Equivalents
  • Interest Rate Swaps
  • Eurodollar Futures Curve

Jeff Snider Chartbook July 1, 2019


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LukeGromen

Today's All-Star Luke Gromen and Erik discuss: 

  • Policy developments since Luke’s May 28 All-Stars Appearance
  • Gold and Bitcoin are starting new bull moves; the Dollar is starting a new bear trend
  • Lael Brainard’s speech and why it’s so important to markets
  • Luke’s “bottom line” call for markets


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All-Star Julian Brigden and Erik discuss: 

  • Can Trump pull off a trade deal with China setting us up for a run into the election?
  • What do Middle Eastern tensions mean for markets?


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All-Star Louis-Vincent Gave weighs in on the protests which brought 25% of Hong Kongers to the streets and opines on the longer term outlook for the Chinese Yuan

  • Summary of the issues that led to the 2 million person protests in the streets of Hong Kong
  • Longer-term, Louis thinks investors should be more concerned about the risk of Yuan appreciation than the widely feared risk of yuan devaluation


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MACRO VOICES is presented for informational and entertainment purposes only. The information presented in MACRO VOICES should NOT be construed as investment advice. Always consult a licensed investment professional before making important investment decisions. The opinions expressed on MACRO VOICES are those of the participants. MACRO VOICES, its producers, and hosts Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna shall NOT be liable for losses resulting from investment decisions based on information or viewpoints presented on MACRO VOICES.

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