Macro Voices All-Stars

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All-Star Dr. Pippa Malmgren and Erik discuss:

  • The real reason the Hong Kong protests have centered on Hong Kong Polytechnic University
  • Faith in large institutions and the complacency of investors relative to associated risks
  • Why Pippa remains bullish on technology innovation and global growth despite geopolitical risks

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All-Star Brent Johnson and Erik discuss:

  • Two potential trajectories for the U.S. Dollar Index
  • Why Brent thinks stocks still have higher to go, even from these lofty levels
  • China, trade deal, and currency rate component of the trade deal
  • Canadian Interest Rates
  • Gold outlook

Supporting Materials for Download

All-Stars #81 Brent Johnson Slidedeck 

 

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All-Star Prof. Steve Keen and Erik discuss:

  • Steve’s 2016 prediction that the Fed would eventually be forced to return to QE and why current events prove it true
  • Costs and benefits of QE in the real world
  • Private debt and the inflated corporate bond market as a result of QE translates to higher risk for the next financial crisis

Supporting Materials for Download

Tilting At Windmills: The Faustian Folly Of Quantitative Easing 

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All-Star Louis-Vincent Gave and Erik discuss:

  • Update on latest status from Hong Kong
  • The bigger picture: Civil unrest around the globe, what’s driving it, what we should expect next
  • The return of Inflation: Louis’ market outlook

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All-Star Jeff Snider and Erik discuss:

  • Markets grinding to new all-time highs on relief that the recession scare is now over and forgotten.
  • History teaches us it’s not over, but widespread complacency that it is typifies this point in the cycle
  • Everyone is assuming that a trade deal will “fix everything”. Jeff says that belief is misplaced as well.

Supporting Materials for Download

Is It Over? Or just Intermission of a Two Act "Dollar" Play - Jeff Snider 

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All-Star Luke Gromen and Erik discuss:

  • Update on monetary policy: Monetization by any other time is ok, but call it what it is and you’re a crackpot conspiracy theorist!
  • Market outlook for non-monetization: Gold bull run could pause a little longer, but stocks already heading higher
  • What if the ‘risk off event everyone’s been waiting for’ already happened in the form of the Repo crisis?

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All-Star Juliette Declercq and Erik discuss:

  • Monetary policy outlook
  • Are central banks using up all their ammunition, leaving themselves vulnerable to the next crisis?
  • Translating Juliette’s macro outlook to actionable trading strategies

 

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All-Star Dr. Pippa Malmgren and Erik discuss:

  • Civil unrest around the globe: What’s driving it and what does it mean?
  • How technology will contribute to both the problem and its solution
  • Update on President Trump’s post-White House aspirations for a news media empire
  • Why Pippa remains optimistic on global growth and stock prices

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All-Star Brent Johnson and Erik discuss:

  • Why Brent was able to see new highs coming for stocks, despite his own reservations about the economy
  • Why Brent expects Christine Lagarde to make a big splash when she takes office as the new ECB chief
  • Gold market update, including why Brent still thinks a deeper correction is coming before Gold moves to new all time highs

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All-Star Prof. Steve Keen and Erik discuss:

  • Changing of t Guard: Populism on the rise globally and what it means
  • Brexit: Will it happen and what does it mean for markets?

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All-Star Jeff Snider and Erik discuss:

  • Why “base money” really isn’t base money
  • Fed announcements in perspective
  • What’s really missing: The dealers who used to supply global dollar liquidity

Supporting Materials for Download

What Is Money? Misplaced Focus on Bank Reserves & the Fed 

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All-Star Julian Brigden and Erik discuss:

  • Julian weighs in on Saudi oil infrastructure attacks and the rise of geopolitical risk generally
  • Chinese monetary policy: Is it as important now as it was in 2016?
  • Understanding why the Fed is discouraging investors from thinking of Friday’s treasury buying announcement as “QE”

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All-Star Luke Gromen and Erik discuss:

  • Why the narrative just failed and what it means
  • Translating narrative failure to portfolio positioning: Who wins and who loses?
  • Reconciling Luke’s narrative failure thesis with the treasury bid evidenced by low yields

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All-Star Louis-Vincent Gave and Erik discuss:

  • Global markets have been rangebound for well over a year
  • Equity and Gold outlooks
  • Hong Kong update

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All-Star Danielle DiMartino-Booth and Erik discuss:

  • Making sense of a 50-yr low in unemployment, and putting it in perspective
  • Why the numbers aren’t as clear as the headline sounds
  • Why a disproportionate number of jobs are going to 55+ baby-boomers going back to work

Supporting Materials for Download

The Daily Feather - A Fork in the Labour Dam

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All-Star Jeff Snider and Erik discuss:

  • It’s true that foreigners have stopped buying treasuries in many cases
  • But price sends a clear signal – the full treasury issuance is being snatched up
  • Bid-to-cover ratios are a reflection of primary market activity only; most of the action is in the secondary market

Supporting Materials for Download

Too Many Treasuries? Low Treasury Yields Provoke Emotion

All-Star Juliette Declercq and Erik discuss:

  • Deteriorating data paint a clear picture
  • Still awaiting latest PMIs, but the available data are pretty clear
  • U.S. “Cleanest Dirty Shirt” phenomenon – can it continue or is the U.S. the proverbial last shoe that’s about to drop?

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All-Star Luke Gromen and Erik discuss:

  • Barton Biggs on how the Nomura Family’s ability to recognize “Narrative Failure” made Nomura Japan’s #1 financial firm
  • Why we’re experiencing our own “Narrative Failure” today, and what specifically is failing
  • Portfolio positioning for the narrative failure and beyond
  • Outlook for the coming merger of monetary and fiscal narratives, and how that might unfold

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All-Star Brent Johnson and Erik discuss:

  • Brent disagrees with those who predict QE3 in the U.S., but says even if it does happen, the direction reversal for the USD would only be temporary
  • Brent expects a big pull-back in gold—back to the 1350-1377 breakout zone, and he explains why and what will drive it
  • Why Brent thinks the SPX is headed higher, with or without QE4
  • Brent’s take on the repo crisis and dollar liquidity generally

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All-Star Juliette Declercq and Erik discuss:

  • Drivers of the present liquidity crisis
  • Why Juliette predicts that QE4 is coming in Q4, and why she thinks it’s needed
  • Why Juliette thinks the stock market could move much higher when this occurs

MACRO VOICES is presented for informational and entertainment purposes only. The information presented in MACRO VOICES should NOT be construed as investment advice. Always consult a licensed investment professional before making important investment decisions. The opinions expressed on MACRO VOICES are those of the participants. MACRO VOICES, its producers, and hosts Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna shall NOT be liable for losses resulting from investment decisions based on information or viewpoints presented on MACRO VOICES.

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