Macro Voices All-Stars

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All-Star Louis-Vinecnt Gave and Erik discuss:

  • Why Asia and Europe had such profoundly different outcomes from the COVID19 Pandemic
  • Three crisis for the price of one: Why markets are currently experiencing three separate crises at once
  • Coming challenges for Europe

 

 

 

 

 

 

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All-Star Luke Gromen and Erik discuss:

  • The world is massively short USD and the only way out of this crisis is for the Fed to buy trillions of dollars of debt. Otherwise asset markets will crash.
  • How much is enough? Luke says in theory if the economy shuts down completely, the Fed would have to buy “all” the outstanding debt. That’s $47tn!
  • How is Luke positioned for what’s on the horizon?

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All-Star Jeff Snider and Erik discuss:

  • Despite modern complexities in finance and money, the basic issue is old fashioned currency elasticity. Central banks are not suited for it, and the results are obvious now.
  • September's repo event said that money dealers when faced with irregularities would sit on the sidelines regardless of Fed action. They are definitely sitting on the sidelines.
  • Market liquidations come down to repo market - on the collateral side.
  • Stocks, rates, credit, gold, crude; all these asset classes joined by the same factor.
  • QE's are coming not because they work but because that's what central banks do. Bureaucracies care more for their routines than the results.  

Supporting Materials for Download

Jeff Snider Chartbook: Elasticity - But What is the Currency 

                                                                 Jeff Snider: Since 2008 major turning points in Gold have been punctuated by Eurodollar anomalies

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All-Star Juliette and Erik discuss:

  • Juliette’s analysis of market risks created by the COVID-19 pandemic
  • Understanding why serious complication rate is (economically) more important than case fatality rate or mortality rate
  • Juliette’s guidance on translating these views to actionable trading strategies

 

Supporting Materials for Download

A real macroeconomic plague - MARCH 2020 

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All-Star Brent Johnson and Erik discuss:

  • Dollar update: Still in a long-term uptrend despite recent weakness
  • Why Brent would buy stocks hand over fist if we see another 10% sell-off from here
  • Why gold has been weak despite bullish fundamentals, and outlook for precious metals

Supporting Materials for Download

Brent Johnson Chartbook - MacroVoices All-Stars 03 04 2020

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All-Star Jeff Snider and Erik discuss:

  • Why Jeff’s indicators showed a global slowdown before the Coronavirus story emerged in the news
  • Dollar-positive effects of the global Eurodollar system are in play, independent of the virus story
  • Why dollar strength is a bad thing, not a good thing, and what to expect from here

Supporting Materials for Download

Jeff Snider MacroVoices 2020 02 26

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All-Star Luke Gromen and Erik discuss:

  • Why this story has gotten little attention since first breaking in September 2019
  • Why Luke thinks the U.S. Government wants higher gold prices, an about-face from prior stance
  • Gold market outlook – why Luke is still bullish Gold, Silver and Bitcoin
  • Economic implications of Coronavirus on global supply chain

 

 

 

 

  

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All-Star Jeff Snider and Erik discuss:

  • Why didn’t the August yield curve inversion lead to a recession (so far)?
  • Eurodollar curve inversion started before UST inversion
  • Forward-looking economic outlook

Supporting Materials for Download

Jeff Snider Chartbook MacroVoices 2020 02 04 

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All-Star Dr. Pippa Malmgren and Erik discuss:

  • Pippa weighs in on the Coronavirus outbreak in China, still sees bull market ahead for risk assets
  • Reactions to Kyle Bass’ allegations that China is mining U.S. genetic mapping data for nefarious purposes
  • Pippa’s U.S. election outlook

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All-Star Juliette Declercq and Erik discuss:

  • Update on Juliette’s outlook – still cautiously bullish
  • Manufacturing stagnation vs. services outlook
  • Central bank impotence and its impact on markets
  • Juliette’s assessment of the 2019-nCoV Coronavirus and its likely impact on markets

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All-Star Louis-Vincent Gave and Erik discuss:

  • The “melt-up” has been driven by five primary macro drivers. All of them will come under pressure in 2020
  • Why Warren Buffet’s underperformance in 2019 is an important market signal
  • Where Louis will invest the chips he takes off the table from the stock market at record highs

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All-Star Jeff Snider and Erik discuss:

  • “Not QE”, Repo Bailouts & more: Where does it end and why is it necessary to start with?
  • Reconciling improved unemployment reports with Jeff’s criticisms of CB policy
  • Distinguishing R* from true Economic Potential
  • The real causes of slack in the economy and underperformance against economic potential

Supporting Materials for Download

The R-star Fallacy: There Are No Strong Dollars 

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All-Star Brent Johnson and Erik discuss:

  • U.S. Dollar review and outlook
  • Why Brent remains long-term bullish on stocks but thinks the market may be overbought at current levels
  • Short vs. long-term outlook for Gold

Supporting Materials for Download

MacroVoices All-Stars #87 Brent Johnson Chartbook - 01 06 2020 

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All-Star Luke Gromen and Erik discuss:

  • Luke’s prediction from November 11th: What if the Repo Spike was the “risk off event everyone was waiting for”?
  • Why Luke believes the event already happened and we’ve entered a new era of “Whatever it Takes” for the U.S. Federal Reserve
  • Luke’s outlook for stocks, bonds, precious metals and crypto

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All-Star Jeff Snider and Erik discuss:

  • Reviewing how we got here (datapoints from 2017 and 2018 thru 2019)
  • Another terrific chart deck
  • Jeff’s outlook for 2020

Supporting Materials for Download

It Is A Eurodollar World 2 : There Are No Strong Dollars - Jeff Snider 2019 12 23 

Anatomy of the US Dollar End Game 

Out Of The Onion Wars, Why Are There Only Losers? 

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All-Star Louis-Vincent Gave and Erik discuss:

  • What’s driving the S&P 500 Christmas Rally and what lies ahead
  • Apple’s outperformance, what it means, and how it relates to the trade war
  • The return of inflation and what it means for markets
  • Gold outlook

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All-Star Jeff Snider and Erik discuss:

  • Comparing the popular narrative of rapidly improving sentiment with global dollar liquidity indicators
  • Beyond Trade Wars and Trump Tweets: What liquidity indicators are actually telling us about the global economic outlook
  • The “King Dollar” meme: Why a strong USD doesn’t necessarily imply U.S. economic outperformance

Supporting Materials for Download

It Is A Eurodollar World : There Are No Strong Dollars - Jeff Snider 2019 12 09 

Reuters article: BIS on Causes of Repo Shock 

BIS Quarterly Review 

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All-Star Dr. Pippa Malmgren and Erik discuss:

  • The real reason the Hong Kong protests have centered on Hong Kong Polytechnic University
  • Faith in large institutions and the complacency of investors relative to associated risks
  • Why Pippa remains bullish on technology innovation and global growth despite geopolitical risks

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All-Star Brent Johnson and Erik discuss:

  • Two potential trajectories for the U.S. Dollar Index
  • Why Brent thinks stocks still have higher to go, even from these lofty levels
  • China, trade deal, and currency rate component of the trade deal
  • Canadian Interest Rates
  • Gold outlook

Supporting Materials for Download

All-Stars #81 Brent Johnson Slidedeck 

 

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All-Star Prof. Steve Keen and Erik discuss:

  • Steve’s 2016 prediction that the Fed would eventually be forced to return to QE and why current events prove it true
  • Costs and benefits of QE in the real world
  • Private debt and the inflated corporate bond market as a result of QE translates to higher risk for the next financial crisis

Supporting Materials for Download

Tilting At Windmills: The Faustian Folly Of Quantitative Easing 

MACRO VOICES is presented for informational and entertainment purposes only. The information presented in MACRO VOICES should NOT be construed as investment advice. Always consult a licensed investment professional before making important investment decisions. The opinions expressed on MACRO VOICES are those of the participants. MACRO VOICES, its producers, and hosts Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna shall NOT be liable for losses resulting from investment decisions based on information or viewpoints presented on MACRO VOICES.

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