Macro Voices All-Stars

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All-Star Louis-Vincent Gave and Erik discuss:

  • The “melt-up” has been driven by five primary macro drivers. All of them will come under pressure in 2020
  • Why Warren Buffet’s underperformance in 2019 is an important market signal
  • Where Louis will invest the chips he takes off the table from the stock market at record highs

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All-Star Jeff Snider and Erik discuss:

  • “Not QE”, Repo Bailouts & more: Where does it end and why is it necessary to start with?
  • Reconciling improved unemployment reports with Jeff’s criticisms of CB policy
  • Distinguishing R* from true Economic Potential
  • The real causes of slack in the economy and underperformance against economic potential

Supporting Materials for Download

The R-star Fallacy: There Are No Strong Dollars 

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All-Star Brent Johnson and Erik discuss:

  • U.S. Dollar review and outlook
  • Why Brent remains long-term bullish on stocks but thinks the market may be overbought at current levels
  • Short vs. long-term outlook for Gold

Supporting Materials for Download

MacroVoices All-Stars #87 Brent Johnson Chartbook - 01 06 2020 

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All-Star Luke Gromen and Erik discuss:

  • Luke’s prediction from November 11th: What if the Repo Spike was the “risk off event everyone was waiting for”?
  • Why Luke believes the event already happened and we’ve entered a new era of “Whatever it Takes” for the U.S. Federal Reserve
  • Luke’s outlook for stocks, bonds, precious metals and crypto

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All-Star Jeff Snider and Erik discuss:

  • Reviewing how we got here (datapoints from 2017 and 2018 thru 2019)
  • Another terrific chart deck
  • Jeff’s outlook for 2020

Supporting Materials for Download

It Is A Eurodollar World 2 : There Are No Strong Dollars - Jeff Snider 2019 12 23 

Anatomy of the US Dollar End Game 

Out Of The Onion Wars, Why Are There Only Losers? 

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All-Star Louis-Vincent Gave and Erik discuss:

  • What’s driving the S&P 500 Christmas Rally and what lies ahead
  • Apple’s outperformance, what it means, and how it relates to the trade war
  • The return of inflation and what it means for markets
  • Gold outlook

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All-Star Jeff Snider and Erik discuss:

  • Comparing the popular narrative of rapidly improving sentiment with global dollar liquidity indicators
  • Beyond Trade Wars and Trump Tweets: What liquidity indicators are actually telling us about the global economic outlook
  • The “King Dollar” meme: Why a strong USD doesn’t necessarily imply U.S. economic outperformance

Supporting Materials for Download

It Is A Eurodollar World : There Are No Strong Dollars - Jeff Snider 2019 12 09 

Reuters article: BIS on Causes of Repo Shock 

BIS Quarterly Review 

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All-Star Dr. Pippa Malmgren and Erik discuss:

  • The real reason the Hong Kong protests have centered on Hong Kong Polytechnic University
  • Faith in large institutions and the complacency of investors relative to associated risks
  • Why Pippa remains bullish on technology innovation and global growth despite geopolitical risks

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All-Star Brent Johnson and Erik discuss:

  • Two potential trajectories for the U.S. Dollar Index
  • Why Brent thinks stocks still have higher to go, even from these lofty levels
  • China, trade deal, and currency rate component of the trade deal
  • Canadian Interest Rates
  • Gold outlook

Supporting Materials for Download

All-Stars #81 Brent Johnson Slidedeck 

 

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All-Star Prof. Steve Keen and Erik discuss:

  • Steve’s 2016 prediction that the Fed would eventually be forced to return to QE and why current events prove it true
  • Costs and benefits of QE in the real world
  • Private debt and the inflated corporate bond market as a result of QE translates to higher risk for the next financial crisis

Supporting Materials for Download

Tilting At Windmills: The Faustian Folly Of Quantitative Easing 

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All-Star Louis-Vincent Gave and Erik discuss:

  • Update on latest status from Hong Kong
  • The bigger picture: Civil unrest around the globe, what’s driving it, what we should expect next
  • The return of Inflation: Louis’ market outlook

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All-Star Jeff Snider and Erik discuss:

  • Markets grinding to new all-time highs on relief that the recession scare is now over and forgotten.
  • History teaches us it’s not over, but widespread complacency that it is typifies this point in the cycle
  • Everyone is assuming that a trade deal will “fix everything”. Jeff says that belief is misplaced as well.

Supporting Materials for Download

Is It Over? Or just Intermission of a Two Act "Dollar" Play - Jeff Snider 

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All-Star Luke Gromen and Erik discuss:

  • Update on monetary policy: Monetization by any other time is ok, but call it what it is and you’re a crackpot conspiracy theorist!
  • Market outlook for non-monetization: Gold bull run could pause a little longer, but stocks already heading higher
  • What if the ‘risk off event everyone’s been waiting for’ already happened in the form of the Repo crisis?

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All-Star Juliette Declercq and Erik discuss:

  • Monetary policy outlook
  • Are central banks using up all their ammunition, leaving themselves vulnerable to the next crisis?
  • Translating Juliette’s macro outlook to actionable trading strategies

 

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All-Star Dr. Pippa Malmgren and Erik discuss:

  • Civil unrest around the globe: What’s driving it and what does it mean?
  • How technology will contribute to both the problem and its solution
  • Update on President Trump’s post-White House aspirations for a news media empire
  • Why Pippa remains optimistic on global growth and stock prices

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All-Star Brent Johnson and Erik discuss:

  • Why Brent was able to see new highs coming for stocks, despite his own reservations about the economy
  • Why Brent expects Christine Lagarde to make a big splash when she takes office as the new ECB chief
  • Gold market update, including why Brent still thinks a deeper correction is coming before Gold moves to new all time highs

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All-Star Prof. Steve Keen and Erik discuss:

  • Changing of t Guard: Populism on the rise globally and what it means
  • Brexit: Will it happen and what does it mean for markets?

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All-Star Jeff Snider and Erik discuss:

  • Why “base money” really isn’t base money
  • Fed announcements in perspective
  • What’s really missing: The dealers who used to supply global dollar liquidity

Supporting Materials for Download

What Is Money? Misplaced Focus on Bank Reserves & the Fed 

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All-Star Julian Brigden and Erik discuss:

  • Julian weighs in on Saudi oil infrastructure attacks and the rise of geopolitical risk generally
  • Chinese monetary policy: Is it as important now as it was in 2016?
  • Understanding why the Fed is discouraging investors from thinking of Friday’s treasury buying announcement as “QE”

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All-Star Luke Gromen and Erik discuss:

  • Why the narrative just failed and what it means
  • Translating narrative failure to portfolio positioning: Who wins and who loses?
  • Reconciling Luke’s narrative failure thesis with the treasury bid evidenced by low yields

MACRO VOICES is presented for informational and entertainment purposes only. The information presented in MACRO VOICES should NOT be construed as investment advice. Always consult a licensed investment professional before making important investment decisions. The opinions expressed on MACRO VOICES are those of the participants. MACRO VOICES, its producers, and hosts Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna shall NOT be liable for losses resulting from investment decisions based on information or viewpoints presented on MACRO VOICES.

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