Macro Voices All-Stars

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All-Star Dr. Pippa Malmgren and Erik discuss:

  • Big picture macro outlook
  • Why Pippa thinks it’s not as bad as many fear
  • Why pensions will rush in to buy treasuries if China really divests its holdings en masse
  • Why Pippa predicts more Boomers will go back to work in coming years


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All-Star Luke Gromen and Erik discuss:

  • Recap of Luke’s viewpoints expressed in prior All-Stars Interviews for context
  • Why USD liquidity squeeze explains apparent disagreement between stock and bond markets
  • Why this is a U.S. Fiscal problem in the making, despite crashing bond yields
  • Luke’s outlook for risk assets


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All-Star Prof. Steve Keen and Erik discuss:

  • Update on Steve’s recession outlook for U.S. in the wake of the yield curve inversion
  • Balance sheet recessions 
  • Are negative interest rates evidence of central bank policy errors?
  • The “wildcard factor”: China


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All-Star Louis-Vincent Gave and Erik discuss:

  • History and drivers of the protests in Hong Kong and their implications in financial markets
  • Gold breakout and what comes next
  • Bonds and gold: Safety trade assets are clearly catching a bid!
  • So why hasn’t the S&P 500 taken the hint when other global stock markets clearly have?


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All-Star Jeff Snider and Erik discuss:

  • Why there’s more to the yuan devaluation story that meets the eye (or the mainstream narrative)
  • Comparison to prior devaluations and analysis of true driving forces
  • Why China’s U.S. Treasury holdings are encumbered and selling them doesn have the effects most people assume
  • China’s behind-the-scenes derivatives-based USD “War Chest”
  • Is China really manipulating its currency, and what are the consequences?

Jeff Snider Chartbook August 12 2019 

CNY 7 The Gears Behind the Clockface

The Aid of TIC In Sorting Shorts and Shortages


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All-Star Luke Gromen and Erik discuss:

  • Central Bank Gold Agreement (CBGA) not renewed for first time in 20 years
  • Yet central banks around the world are buying gold hand over fist!
  • Luke’s take on what’s driving this and why it’s so important
  • Fundamental case for gold (review) and is this a good time to buy?


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All-Star Brent Johnson and Erik discuss:

  • Why Brent remains convinced the USD has much higher to go
  • The case for gold, and analysis of recent moves in reaction to the Trump China Tweet
  • U.S. Stock market outlook


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All-Star Juliette Declercq and Erik discuss:

  •  The fed needed to take action in response to tightening global Dollar liquidity squeezing the USD higher, which will cause serious problems if not addressed.
  • They had their chance last week, but blew it!
  • In a rare moment of agreement with Donald Trump, Juliette says Powell should be fired!
  • Great graphs and charts support Juliette’s entire narrative
  • Despite these developments, Juliette believes recent dollar strength is still ultimately unsustainable

Juliette Declercq Chartbook August 5 2019 


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All-Star Professor Steve Keen and Erik discuss:

  • Why Steve doesn’t expect a U.S. recession
  • Steve’s economic outlook for the rest of the world
  • Why Steve is concerned about the financial sector
  • Will the secular bond bull market reverse or just plateau at sustained near-zero interest rates?


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All-Star Jeff Snider and Erik discuss:

  • Anomalous behavior of EFF relative to IOER in 2018/19
  • Why the Fed describes IOER as a floor or double-floor BELOW EFF
  • Why it doesn’t work that way in the real world
  • Contrasting Jeff’s views with Luke Gromen’s “balance sheet capacity” argument
  • Why treasuries and other sovereign credits are really balance sheet instruments, not investments
  • Japanese vs. U.S. over-indebtedness and implications

Jeff Snider Chartbook July 30 2019 


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All-Star Danielle DiMartino Booth and Erik discuss:

  • What to expect from this week’s FOMC
  • Will we get a 50bps cut or just 25?
  • Is there a risk that a 25bps cut would disappoint markets and still lead to a big correction?
  • How will the ECB and other central banks react?
  • What’s in store when Christine Lagarde eventually takes the helm of the ECB in November?


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Pippa Malmgren

All-Star Pippa Malmgren and Erik discuss:

  • Iran geopolitical situation – what’s at risk and what comes next?
  • Update to Pippa’s prediction Donald Trump has aspirations of a major media empire after the White House
  • Personal data monetization trends and Facebook’s record $5bn fine for privacy violations


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All-Star Julian Brigden and Erik discuss:

  • If central banks are powerless to contain deflationary pressures, what are the implications for Pensions?
  • Is it possible to enter recession without first seeing a 2s10s curve inversion?
  • Longer-term outlook for bond yields, esp. U.S. 10yr

 


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All-Star Luke Gromen and Erik discuss:

  • Luke says the real reason for the coming rate cut is to enable US private sector financing of government deficits
  • Luke elaborates on his views about balance sheet capacity driving FF>IOER
  • Luke’s expectations for market moves when a debt ceiling increase is confirmed


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All-Star Danielle DiMartino-Booth and Erik discuss:

  • As Danielle explained in her prior interview, the U.S. economy isn’t immune to the global growth slowdown.
  • But what about Brent Johnson’s view that a global safety trade could keep the stock market party going a while longer?
  • Danielle’s take on the possibility of President Trump bypassing the Fed and intervening to weaken the dollar through executive action
  • Why we should be thinking about the possibility of #DoubleEasing – both QE and rate cuts at the same time


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SteveKeenArticle

All-Star Prof. Steve Keen and Erik discuss:

  • How the field of economics lost its way and lost touch with how the real world actually works
  • Several examples of clear disconnects between widely accepted economic theory and real-world actuality
  • Prof. Steve’s book recommendations for those who want an interpretation of Economics that’s a little closer to reality than the mainstream


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JeffSnider AllStars

All-Star Jeff Snider and Erik discuss: 

  • Review of Fed Funds rate and Interest on Excess Reserves (IOER) – what do they mean and why are they important
  • The theorydescribing how the Fed believed that IOER would effectively cap the Fed Funds rate within their target range
  • Hard data shows the theory doesn’t match actual reality
  • Jeff’s explanation of what’s really going on, and why a shortage of USD liquidity in the global offshore Eurodollar market is what’s really driving the observed behavior of Fed Funds and IOER

 All-Stars Jeff Snider Chartbook July 15 2019 


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JulianArticle

All-Star Julian Brigden and Erik discuss:

  • What should we make of crypto currencies suddenly making a come-back? And what about Facebook’s Libra project?
  • Why Julian remains bullish Gold, and his outlook for Silver
  • Why Julian is turning bearish on the USD


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MVAS Luke

All-Star Luke Gromen and Erik discuss:

  • Everyone was so focused on the Jobs number that they missed the re-widening of Fed Funds over IOER, which is more important according to Luke
  • Luke explains the significance of FF > IOER, what it means, and what the consequences are
  • Luke’s take on the global dollar squeeze thesis we’ve discussed extensively on MacroVoices
  • Why the dollar squeeze doesn’t deter Luke from being bearish on the USD and bullish on risk assets, gold, and Bitcoin
  • Luke’s outlook for how things will play out from here in markets


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BrentJohnsonArticle

All-Star Brent Johnson and Erik discuss:

  • Brent says he was caught by surprise by the Gold breakout, but he’s still not chasing it
  • Ultimately, Brent thinks Gold will move much higher, but still questions whether this is really the time
  • Brent’s conviction that the USD is headed higher has never been stronger
  • But he also points out that he las long predicted Gold and the Dollar would eventually move higher together, and this may have begun
  • Brent says 4,000+ on the S&P 500 is entirely possible in the next year or two, not because of strong fundamentals but because Brent believes the U.S. Stock market will become the global safety trade benefactor


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MACRO VOICES is presented for informational and entertainment purposes only. The information presented in MACRO VOICES should NOT be construed as investment advice. Always consult a licensed investment professional before making important investment decisions. The opinions expressed on MACRO VOICES are those of the participants. MACRO VOICES, its producers, and hosts Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna shall NOT be liable for losses resulting from investment decisions based on information or viewpoints presented on MACRO VOICES.

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