About Erik Townsend

hedge fund manager Erik Townsend

Erik Townsend is a retired software entrepreneur turned hedge fund manager. Throughout his career, Erik has capitalized on his ability to understand complex systems and anticipate paradigm shifts far in advance of the mainstream. Read More...

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JulietteDeclercqHeadshot250xErik Townsend Patrick Ceresna welcome Juliette Declercq back to MacroVoices. Erik and Juliette discuss:

  • Outlook on the U.S. Dollar for 2018
  • Do rate differentials matter?
  • Has there been a regime shift?
  • Is equity risk premium just catching up to higher real yields?
  • How does the economic data tie back into bearish dollar narrative?
  • What has happened this year in the U.S. dollar?
  • Tactical considerations on a new U.S. dollar short
  • Market positioning on the interim
  • Can surprising strength in U.S. economy change the outlook?

SPECIAL POST GAME GUEST: TG MACRO'S TONY GREER

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Juliette will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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Gave Charles PicErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Charles Gave to MacroVoices. Erik and Charles discuss:

  • The corporate yield curve and what it is telling us about the equity market
  • The Hong Kong dollar peg
  • China’s debt and related risks
  • The risk parity trade with bonds and stocks selling off simultaneously
  • “The Upcoming Monetary War, With Gold as An Arbiter”
  • Gold bullish vs bearish
  • The return of secular inflation
  • What happened in the 70’s with inflation?
  • Preparing for the return of secular inflation

 

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RussellNapierMacroVoicesErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Russell Napier to MacroVoices. Erik and Russell discuss:

  • Deflationary risks in the U.S. 
  • Context on current higher inflation prints
  • How high are risks of a credit event
  • Contagion risk if China “sneezes”
  • Consideration on the impact of higher rates
  • Do we still need a world reserve currency?
  • Is there a concern of the US government not being able to fund itself?
  • Impact of the global de-dollarization trend
  • What is in store for the gold markets?
  • What do investors need to consider in the current environment?
  • What comes next for the equity markets?
  • Impact on emerging market and junk bond markets
  • The falling Yen and its impact on Japan

 

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Marin Katusa OfficeErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Marin Katusa to MacroVoices. Erik and Marin discuss:

  • Considerations on uranium exports to from Russia to the US
  • What options does the US have for new uranium sources?
  • Is there an investment play for uranium?
  • Electric vehicles and why they’ll be a dominant trend over the coming years
  • Why is copper a key component, and how to play it during this trend
  • Is copper a sole source material for EV or is there an alternative?
  • Will more efficient electric vehicles require more or less copper?
  • The copper industry and its ability to scale up
  • The investment play for copper and uranium prices going up

 

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BassmanCudmoreSniderErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Harley Bassman, Mark Cudmore and Jeffrey Snider to the show. Discussed this week:

Harley Bassman: 

  • How will we know when the real bear market is on?
  • The implicit and explicit VOL trade and how long will it take to play out?
  • How will a bond sell off impact inflation?
  • The USD over then next few years

Mark Cudmore: 

  • Is this a correction or something much bigger?
  • The USD and the recent sideways consolidation, what does it mean?
  • Outlook for the bond market
  • Commodities, China, Europe and EM
  • Current stress on the Hong Kong Dollar

Jeffrey Snider:

  • Where are the equity markets headed?
  • What is going on with the Hong Kong Dollar?
  • Principles of a “Dollar Short”

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview with Harley Bassman. Erik and Harley will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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DariusDaleMVheadshotErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Darius Dale to MacroVoices. Erik and Darius discuss:

  • The U.S. growth cycle and its peak
  • Considerations on inflation
  • Earnings outlook for the rest of the year
  • Global divergence reiterated
  • Prognostications vs the reality of the markets
  • China’s massive credit expansion
  • One final leg in the dollar?
  • USD breakdown in currency and interest differentials

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Darius will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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Simon WhiteErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Simon White to MacroVoices. Erik and Simon discuss:

  • Considerations on the equity markets
  • Post-crash dynamics
  • Medium-term drivers of the U.S. Dollar
  • Has something fundamentally changed in the U.S. treasury markets?
  • Where is the yield curve going?
  • TED and LIBOR OIS spreads
  • Outlook on the Canadian economy
  • Context on the Chinese economic outlook
  • Has the Japanese economy peaked?

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Simon will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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julian brigden headshotErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Julian Brigden to MacroVoices. Erik and Julian discuss:

  • How do things look in today’s market?
  • What is on the horizon for inflation?
  • Risks of runaway inflation
  • What comes next for equities?
  • Are the market highs in already?
  • What if bonds and stocks sell off, where does the money go?
  • US Dollar structural issues
  • What is causing the correlation breakdown between the USD and US bonds?
  • What levels should we be watching on the US Dollar?
  • Where to focus the bond short

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Julian will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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JeffreySniderErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Jeffrey Snider to MacroVoices. Erik and Jeff discuss:

  • What does the yield curve tell us?
  • US Treasury Curve
  • Changes from an Era of Fed Funds Rate Targeting
  • Reflections on the 2006-2009 curves
  • Reflation trends in the post GFC
  • Deconstructing Rates
  • Negative Term Premiums
  • Market Inflation Expectations
  • Eurodollar Futures & Effective Money
  • Central Bank Failure
  • This Flat Curve is the Bad One

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Jeff will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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John Mauldin MVErik Townsend welcomes John Mauldin to MacroVoices. Erik and John discuss:

  • Is this the end or just the beginning of this small market dislocation?
  • What is the reason that we have a back up of interest rates?
  • How far can the 10-year go before something breaks and what are the risks?
  • With China’s banking assets now at 44 trillion how will this end?
  • Is inflation coming and what are the consequences?
  • What were some of the surprises from the SIC conference this year?

SPECIAL POSTGAME GUEST AND CO-HOST - Kevin Muir – market strategist at East West Investment Management and author of the MacroTourist. We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies the post game interview as Erik and Kevin will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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Jim Grant MacroVoicesErik Townsend welcomes Jim Grant to MacroVoices. Erik and Jim discuss:

  • The state of the FED under J Powell 
  • What to make of rising treasury yields?
  • How far can the FED go before something breaks?
  • Outlook on Inflation
  • Perspective on gold
  • What can be the outcome of such a massive credit expansion?
  • Shorting junk bonds
  • What drivers of long term cycles and what can we expect to see next?
  • What happened when the FED did not bail out the banks in 1920?
  • Considerations on what actions the government can take to deal with the debt

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JeffreySniderErik Townsend welcomes Jeffrey Snider to MacroVoices. Erik and Jeffrey discuss:

  • Gold swaps and how do central banks engage in them
  • What has changed in gold swaps, how are they done today?
  • The gold bug’s conspiracy theory about “gold pukes”
  • What happened to gold in the 2008 crisis
  • What caused gold to turn at the end of 2008
  • Why do central banks still hold gold after 2008 and why are others not?
  • Why did gold peak in 2011 and what was so bearish about it in 2013?
  • How do dollar index futures fit into the gold story?
  • How has the mood changed in gold starting 2017?
  • How will gold play out if the dollar continues to slide
  • Topic nnInterbank lending statistics discontinued, what does it mean

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Jeffrey will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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Rick Rule eErik Townsend welcomes Rick Rule to MacroVoices. Erik and Rick discuss:

  • Why focus on investing natural resources?
  • Using top down macro in resource investing
  • Rare earths and lithium 
  • What resources should investors focus on?
  • Uranium and nuclear energy
  • Liquid Fluoride Thorium Reactors
  • Copper, Potash and Dry Bulk Shipping
  • Water as a commodity
  • China and the future of rare earths

 

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Eric Peters HeadshotErik Townsend welcomes Eric Peters to MacroVoices. Erik and Eric discuss:

  • Is this just a small equity market dislocation or is this bigger?
  • Is this all about rates or the VIX complex?
  • Why were the Inverse VIX products flawed
  • Context on the increasing rates and the movement of the dollar
  • Stagflation and inflation risks
  • Considerations on corporate debt and buybacks
  • Impact of the changes of leadership at the FED
  • Context on FED policy tools during the next recession
  • Is this a Bear Stearns moment for the markets?

 

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JaredDillianErik Townsend welcomes Jared Dillian to MacroVoices. Erik and Jared discuss:

  • Drivers of this stock market drop
  • Is higher volatility here to stay?
  • The beginning of a sustained unwinding of the short vol trade
  • Future regulation of these specialty ETF products
  • Where are the markets heading from here? 
  • Bonds, interest rates and how high can rates go?
  • Where is the U.S. dollar heading next?
  • Dollars relationship to gold
  • Outlook on the Canadian economy

SPECIAL POSTGAME GUESTS:

Chris Cole from Artemis Capital - Follow up on his January 25th interview on Volatility and the Alchemy of Risk.
Devin Anderson - Managing Director - Postmortem on the implosion of the vol ETNs  

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Arthur Berman largeErik Townsend welcomes Art Berman to MacroVoices. Erik and Art discuss:

  • Reflecting on the current oil market
  • Where are the comparative inventories
  • OPEC decisions and actions dominating price
  • Context on OPEC production cuts
  • How much new oil is coming from higher prices
  • Economics on the shale oil fields
  • Perspective on US oil exports
  • Exports primary reason behind U.S. inventory reductions
  • Underinvestment in exploration and development

SPECIAL POSTGAME GUEST: Energy Markets Commercial Broker Patricia Hemsworth to discuss producer hedging, WTI/Brent spreads and the forward curve price dynamics.

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Art will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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chris cole picErik Townsend welcomes Chris Cole to MacroVoices. Erik and Chris discuss:

  • Risks in share buybacks
  • Defining the short volatility trade
  • Explicit vs implicit short vol positions
  • Risk parity, VAR control, Risk Premia and CTAs
  • Considerations on the unwind of the short VIX trade
  • History of correlations on stocks and bonds
  • The scenario where we can have another 1987 market drop again
  • Consideration on the growing trend to passive investing
  • Potential catalysis for market triggers

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Chris will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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mark imageErik Townsend welcomes Mark Cudmore to MacroVoices. Erik and Mark discuss:

  • Outlook for the US dollar for 2018
  • Are rate differentials going to impact the dollar move?
  • Considerations on the Yuan oil contract
  • Is the bond bull market over?
  • Low inflation vs. stagnation
  • Is the oil rally sustainable?
  • Outlook on the commodity markets
  • Considerations on the equity markets
  • Perspectives on China’s economy
  • Will the European Union survive?
  • Outlook for the Euro currency
  • Bullish emerging markets and currencies

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JoshSteinerHeadshotErik Townsend welcomes Josh Steiner to MacroVoices. Erik and Josh discuss:

  • Macro drivers of the Canadian and Australian real estate markets
  • Canada’s "Minsky Moment"
  • Turning up the heat with policies
  • Impact on Canadian Banks
  • Australian one-cylinder economy
  • Perspective on the Australian construction boom
  • Negative gearing in Australia and home equity withdrawal
  • Considerations on U.S. real estate
  • There is still room to run in the U.S. markets

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Josh will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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YuskoSniderGromenfinalMacroVoices and Erik Townsend welcome Jeffrey Snider, Mark Yusko and Luke Gromen to the show.  In Part 5 of the 5 Part Series, the panel discuss the possible outcomes:

  • What sign posts for the big change?
  • Potential triggers for a lower U.S. dollar
  • Can structural changes be implemented
  • Which investment assets will work the best?
  • Which investment assets will work the worst?
  • Considerations on investment portfolios

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, as they will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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Get embed code for this episode | For other embed code options click here | Download the audio MP3 File (69.81 MB) | Download the podcast transcript:   pdf Here (584 KB)

MACRO VOICES is presented for informational and entertainment purposes only. The information presented in MACRO VOICES should NOT be construed as investment advice. Always consult a licensed investment professional before making important investment decisions. The opinions expressed on MACRO VOICES are those of the participants. MACRO VOICES, its producers, and hosts Erik Townsend and Nathan Egger shall NOT be liable for losses resulting from investment decisions based on information or viewpoints presented on MACRO VOICES.

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