About Erik Townsend

hedge fund manager Erik Townsend

Erik Townsend is a retired software entrepreneur turned hedge fund manager. Throughout his career, Erik has capitalized on his ability to understand complex systems and anticipate paradigm shifts far in advance of the mainstream. Read More...

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DSC06699 2Erik Townsend welcomes Jeffrey Snider to MacroVoices. Erik and Jeff discuss:

  • Understanding the Eurodollar Money Market 
  • Swap Spreads and Interbank Hierarchy

  • Dimensions in the Eurodollar Futures and Eurodollar Money Supply

  • Why does the World Need So Many Dollars?

  • How the Eurodollar market supplanted the Bretton Woods System

  • U.S. Dollar and the Dollar Funding Gap

  • Reflation Trade Debunked

  • Interest Rates Trapped

  • Failing Global Currency System

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Jeff will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, click “Research Library”  and Guest Publications near the top of the page. From there you can download the PDF.

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Jim Rogers largeErik Townsend welcomes Jim Rogers back to MacroVoices. Erik and Jim discuss:

  • What’s in store for the U.S. Equity Markets?
  • Outlook on the U.S. Dollar
  • Is the 35-year bond bull market over?
  • Where are junk bonds going?
  • History of government failures
  • His views on the global populist movements
  • Is there war on the horizon? 
  • Are the Russian’s being scapegoated? 
  • Update on his views on gold
  • His views on movement to cashless society
  • Are we moving away from a free society?

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JSchwager Photo Barcelona FINALErik Townsend welcomes Jack Schwager to MacroVoices. Erik and Jack discuss:

  • How has futures trading evolved over the last few decades?
  • Understanding leverage – stocks vs. futures
  • Technical Analysis vs Fundamental Analysis
  • The Most Important Rule in Technical Trading
  • Understanding Continuous Futures Contacts
  • Systems Trading
  • Understanding Fundamental Analysis on Futures
  • Lessons from the Market Wizards
  • What’s new at Fundseeder

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David Rosenberg headshot HRErik Townsend welcomes David Rosenberg to MacroVoices. Erik and David discuss:

  • How long does the Trump rally last?
  • Is inflation really a risk moving forward?  
  • When is it time to become bearish on the markets? 
  • When is it time to make your fundamental asset mix shift?
  • Fed will play an important role in how the cycle plays out
  • US dollar outlook
  • Canadian Dollar and Canadian Monetary Policy
  • Future of European Union
  • Is the 35-year bond bull market over?
  • Opportunities and Outlook for 2017 

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Raoul Pal

Erik Townsend welcomes back Raoul Pal, co-founder of Real Vision TV back to MacroVoices.  Erik and Raoul discuss:

  • Trump impact on the U.S. Dollar
  • Is the bond bull market over and where are yields moving from here
  • Update on the business cycle (spoiler alert: it is long in the tooth)
  • Looking at the European banks and can they survive the next recession
  • The overcrowded VIX contango trade
  • The short-term direction of gold
  • The big opportunities of 2017
  • Update on crude oil
  • Junk bonds, when do the credit risk return

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Rick RuleErik Townsend welcomes back Rick Rule from Sprott Global to MacroVoices. Erik and Rick discuss:

  • Trump impact on precious metal prices
  • Impact of real yields, inflation, debt and the U.S. Dollar on gold prices
  • Due Diligence in making private placements in gold and silver mining companies
  • Evaluating intellectual property and physical property
  • Characteristics successful and failed endeavors
  • The risk vs. reward of speculating in pre-revenue private placements
  • How much time and capital is needed to invest in early stage startups
  • Being a contrarian, looking where the market is not paying attention

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David HayErik Townsend welcomes David Hay to MacroVoices. Erik and David discuss:

  • Trump victory rally likely overbought
  • Recession risk remains high
  • Market fails to discount effect of Trump tax plan on corporate buybacks
  • USD Rally can’t continue indefinitely; Plaza Accord 2.0 is inevitable
  • Global debt burden poses serious risk to full recovery
  • Recession could still spell much lower treasury yields
  • China situation bad but probably not bad enough to trigger global downturn
  • Energy MLPs have tripled in 2016 – Dave still Bullish

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RealVision TV red 01An interview which was originally aired on June 2, 2016, between Raoul Pal of Real Vision and Edward Misrahi, Goldman Sachs alumni and founder of Eton Park.

 

 

 

 

 

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E 4552Color 1Erik Townsend and Aaron Chan introduce the Accredited Investor Academy Series, Part 4. We’re taking this week off from our regular show format, so instead of a featured interview guest, we’re airing the final part of a four-part series about learning to be a sophisticated private investor.

Erik and Aaron discuss:

  • Definition and origins of the hedge fund
  • Whether active managers are able to outperform the market
  • Impediments to investing in the "top name" hedge funds
  • Various hedge fund strategies
  • How to learn and gather more information on hedge funds
  • CTA's and managed futures commodity pools
  • Fund of funds

 

 

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RealVision TV red 01An interview which was originally published on August 2, 2016, between Grant Williams of Real Vision and Paul J. Isaac, CEO and Founder of Arbiter Partners Capital Management.

 

 

 

 

  

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David S Rose 2013Erik Townsend and Aaron Chan introduce the Accredited Investor Academy Series, Part 3A. We’re taking this week off from our regular show format, so instead of a featured interview guest, we’re airing the third of a four-part series about learning to be a sophisticated private investor.

Erik and David discuss:

  • Background and introduction to angel investing and entrepreneurship through his great uncle David Rose
  • What angel investing actually is, how it might fit in a portfolio, and who it is suited for
  • The time-horizon, temperament, and risk-tolerance required for angel investing
  • The appropriate mind-set when approaching angel investing
  • Expected investment returns from angel investing and the role of diversification
  • Why it's “far better to invest in the jockey than on the horse”
  • Balancing and matching between entrepreneurial execution and bright ideas
  • Mechanics and funding sequence of an angel deal
  • Post-investment lifecycle
  • The importance of networking with veteran angel investors prior to initial investments
  • How the Angel Capital Association vets angel investing groups
  • Learning through reading, finding a mentor, and investing
  • Gust.com angel investing platform, Singularity University and exponential technology

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E 4552Color 1Erik Townsend and Aaron Chan introduce the Accredited Investor Academy Series, Part 3. We’re taking this week off from our regular show format, so instead of a featured interview guest, we’re airing the third of a four-part series about learning to be a sophisticated private investor.

Erik and Aaron discuss:

  • The definition of angel investing
  • Profile of a successful angel investor
  • Professionally-managed alternative investment vehicles
  • Mechanics and nuances involved with investing in alternative vehicles
  • Difference between con men and the true outperformers
  • Investment minimums and investor quotas in 3(c)(1) and 3(c)(7) funds
  • Origins of the 2/20 fee structure and appropriate due diligence
  • Particulars of venture capital and private equity limited partnerships
  • Benefits of getting marketing material from funds

 

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RealVision TV red 01An interview which was originally published on April 29, 2016 between Grant Williams of Real Vision and Jawad Mian, Founder and Managing Editor of Stray Reflections, a global macro research and trading advisory with a focus on major investment themes and actionable trade ideas.

 

 

 

  

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julian brigden headshotErik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Julian Brigden to MacroVoices. Erik and Julian discuss:

  • Waxing and waning of U.S. Dollar cycles driving global crises
  • Central bank over-reaction to oil crash and now cyclical inflation
  • Potentially materially higher headline inflation and wage numbers in 2017
  • China moving from exporting deflation to inflation
  • Peak central bank omnipotence
  • Potential for sub-$1,000 and sub-$14 gold and silver prices
  • Similarities between present conditions and 1986-87
  • Impact of U.S. Dollar repatriation on Eurodollar funding
  • U.S. oil substitution leading to a deficit of reserves around the world
  • Timeline for replacing the U.S. Dollar as the global reserve currency
  • Real Vision Publications Homepage and Launch Video

 

 

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PROFESSOR STEVE KEEN headshotErik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Professor Steve Keen to MacroVoices. Erik and Professor Keen discuss:

  • How Trump might be the most Keynesian President since Reagan
  • Possibility of a recession occurring before U.S. fiscal stimulus is implemented
  • Private debt level's inability to absorb higher rates
  • Prospects for a debt jubilee and subsequent credit boom
  • Implementation and distribution of debt jubilee as "people's QE"
  • Unconstrained QE from central banks
  • European Union disintegration making Lehman look like a picnic
  • Knock-on effects from European Union disintegration
  • Last gasps of neoliberalism evidenced by upcoming UK university classification system

 

 

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Arthur Berman largeErik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Art Berman to MacroVoices. Erik and Art discuss:

  • OPEC's latest production cut agreement and what it means
  • Production cut being more akin to a floor than a ceiling
  • False conception of cutting production to bring balance to an already-balanced market
  • How excess oil in storage will suppress prices for some time to come
  • Weak demand growth similar to late-2014 won't support higher prices
  • Resumption of U.S. production in response to higher prices
  • OPEC not being as desperate as portrayed by the media
  • Weakening global economy as the main driver for low oil prices

 

 

 

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E 4552Color 1

Erik Townsend and Aaron Chan introduce the Accredited Investor Academy Series, Part 2. We’re taking this week off from our regular show format, so instead of a featured interview guest, we’re airing the second of a four-part series about learning to be a sophisticated private investor.

Erik and Aaron discuss:

  • The process of re-inventing oneself from running a company as an entrepreneur to managing and running money
  • Skillset required for investing versus entrepreneurship
  • Resources for re-educating yourself into a sophisticated investor
  • Options in alternative financial media
  • The utility of financial and private investor conferences and groups
  • The different categories of private investors and the work required
  • How to take a more active role in managing your own investments
  • Difference between an asset allocator and a full-time investor

 

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RealVision TV red 02An interview which was originally published on April 8, 2016 between Raoul Pal, founder of Real Vision and Edward Bonham Carter, Vice Chairman of Jupiter Fund Management Plc.

 

 

 

 

  

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Paul Krake 1Erik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Paul Krake to MacroVoices. Erik and Paul discuss:

  • The bond market blowup in the context of the U.S. Presidential election 
  • Prevailing narrative of fiscal stimulus given a Republican sweep of Congress
  • Ripping up the investment playbook under a Trump presidency
  • Violent rotation out of long-bond proxies into higher growth, higher rate assets
  • The resulting balance sheet and pension destruction from the rotation
  • Validity of rising inflation expectations and timeline for commodity price uplift
  • U.S. Dollar breakout's adverse effects on Emerging Market equities and fixed income
  • Potential for a disorderly rise in interest rates and the U.S. Dollar
  • Unwinding of overcrowded Emerging Markets trades
  • Gold losing its predictive ability and relevance
  • China debt dynamics and potential RMB devaluation in the context of limiting social unrest
  • China's growing sphere of influence in Asia-Pacific as the U.S. embraces isolationism
  • 'Legal grabs' leading to waning U.S. hegemony
  • State of the global commodities supercycle
  • Tailwinds for the Japanese economy and equities despite structural demographic issues

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pippa malmgren harald malmgren

Erik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Dr. Harald Malmgren and Dr. Pippa Malmgren to MacroVoices. Erik, Harald, and Pippa discuss:

  • Trump's governance effectiveness in light of the enemies he has made on the campaign trail
  • What Trump's dollar-spend per voter portends for the moneyed lobbyists
  • Sources and potential escalation of social unrest and riots in the aftermath of Trump's victory
  • The long-running trend of repressive economic conditions and Fed policy leading to unrest
  • The potential for Trump to galvanize the determination, grit, and work ethic of the American electorate
  • Whether markets are prematurely jumping to the conclusion that Trump is necessarily inflationary
  • Constitutional limitations pertaining to specific policies espoused by Trump during the campaign
  • Outlook for foreign relations with China, Russia, and Mexico
  • The big picture behind the global populist movement and where it might be headed next
  • Breakdown of the social contract and the collapse in the government's ability to function and meet entitlements

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MACRO VOICES is presented for informational and entertainment purposes only. The information presented in MACRO VOICES should NOT be construed as investment advice. Always consult a licensed investment professional before making important investment decisions. The opinions expressed on MACRO VOICES are those of the participants. MACRO VOICES, its producers, and hosts Erik Townsend and Nathan Egger shall NOT be liable for losses resulting from investment decisions based on information or viewpoints presented on MACRO VOICES.

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