About Erik Townsend

hedge fund manager Erik Townsend

Erik Townsend is a retired software entrepreneur turned hedge fund manager. Throughout his career, Erik has capitalized on his ability to understand complex systems and anticipate paradigm shifts far in advance of the mainstream. Read More...

Welcome to Macro Voices

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PROFESSOR STEVE KEEN headshotErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Prof Steve Keen to MacroVoices. Erik and Steve discuss:

  • Perspective on global sovereign debt
  • Risks in private debt
  • Is government debt still a safe haven? 
  • Junk bonds, corporate debt and credit spreads
  • When does the market start to price risk into junk bonds?
  • How does another financial crisis occur?
  • Vulnerability of France, Canada and Australia
  • Understanding the debt situation in China
  • Global de-dollarization

Prof Steve Keen - Patreon Link 

SPECIAL POST GAME GUEST- CHARLIE MCELLIGOTT - UPDATE ON THE EQUITY MARKETS

Charles Mcelligott Headshot 125x

Discussing the market selloff and the drivers for the next move in the S&P500 .  

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Louis 201211Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Louis-Vincent Gave to MacroVoices. Erik and Louis discuss:

  • Drivers in emerging markets route
  • Perspective on global equity markets
  • How long can the divergence last between US and global equity markets?
  • Impact on U.S. treasuries
  • Is the global de-dollarization
  • Dissolution of Chimerica
  • NAFTA and the changing of the supply chain
  • Outlook for gold and precious metals

Information about the Silver & Gold Summit in San Francisco October 28-29, 2018 - 30%off promo code: MACRO

SPECIAL POST GAME GUEST- Julian Brigden: Update on the Breakout on Yieldsjulian brigden headshot 125x

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Keith Dicker headshotErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Keith Dicker to MacroVoices. Erik and Keith discuss:

  • Understanding the government bond bubble
  • Can equities rally during a bond route?
  • Rethinking bonds and portfolio allocations
  • Artificially suppressed interest rates
  • Has the bear market in bonds started?
  • Growth in the sovereign debt markets
  • Impact of higher rates on governments
  • Outlook on equities and the gold

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Information about the Silver & Gold Summit in San Francisco October 28-29, 2018 - 30%off promo code: MACRO

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Arthur Berman largeErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Art Berman back to MacroVoices. Erik and Art discuss:

  • Comparative inventory on oil
  • Inventory correlation to price
  • Price cycles and the oil-price yield curve
  • Impact of U.S. exporting oil
  • Trends in tight oil rig counts
  • Managed money unwinding net long positions
  • Distillate and gasoline inventories
  • Why is backwardation collapsing on WTI
  • Sensitivities to supply concerns
  • Discrepancies between IEA and OPEC forecasts
  • Where are oil prices going in 2019?

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Charles Mcelligott Headshot 250xErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Charlie McElligott to MacroVoices. Erik and Charlie discuss:

  • Curve steepener as a recession signal
  • Dollar, real rates and inflation expectations impact on S&P500
  • Gauging tighter financial conditions
  • Chinese credit/financing impulse
  • Late cycle behavior from autos and homebuilders
  • Fearing the inversion or the steepener on the yield curve?
  • Nabe wage surveys, unemployment and recessions
  • Hedge fund underperformance and the performance chase

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Marin Katusa OfficeErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Marin Katusa back to MacroVoices. Erik and Marin discuss:

  • Why uranium and why now?
  • Political and geopolitical considerations
  • Understanding the royalty and streaming business
  • Uranium royalties
  • Private placements in a streaming model
  • Understanding warrants on resource companies
  • Focusing on companies that are acquisition targets

Information about Marin Katusa's Premium Research 

MacroVoices LIVE Toronto 2018 - Trailer for Video Access

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DDB Headshot NewErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Danielle DiMartino Booth to MacroVoices. Erik and Danielle discuss:

  • Jay Powell as the new Fed Chair
  • Jackson Hole – Draghi and Kuroda absence
  • Jackson Hole – How did Powell do?
  • Impacts from the trade war
  • Should markets be concerned about QT
  • Impact of the rising dollar on Fed policy
  • Where is the economy headed?
  • Inflation expectations moving forward
  • Economic outlook in Europe and China
  • What is the trade into the year end?

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JeffreySniderEurodollar University 02 bErik Townsend welcomes back Jeffrey Snider to MacroVoices. Erik and Jeffrey discuss:

  • Considerations on Federal Reserve Intervention
  • Switzerland as a major supplier of dollars
  • Structural changes to the Eurodollar System
  • Riskless return shifts to returnless risk
  • Banks simply do not want to do it anymore
  • Impact to sustained economic growth
  • Impact on global economies including EM and China

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Jeff will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, click “Research Library” and Guest Publications near the top of the page. From there you can download the PDF.

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JeffreySniderEurodollar University 02 bErik Townsend welcomes back Jeffrey Snider to MacroVoices. Erik and Jeffrey discuss:

  • Collateral problems with gold in 2008
  • Liquidity risk, not credit
  • Basic Interbank Function – Basel ‘Conjuring’
  • Larger issue of balance sheet capacity
  • Management of the asset side – dark leverage
  • Impaired assets and OTTI
  • Negative swap spreads assaulting conventional financial sense
  • Pro-cyclical positive monetary feedback loop
  • Balance sheet capacity – the modern bank run

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Jeff will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, click “Research Library” and Guest Publications near the top of the page. From there you can download the PDF.

Click here to register for access to supporting materials.

Get embed code for this episode. | For other embed code options click here. | Download the audio MP3 File (55.73 MB) . | Download the podcast transcript:  pdf Here (327 KB)

JeffreySniderEurodollar University 02 bErik Townsend welcomes back Jeffrey Snider to MacroVoices. Erik and Jeffrey discuss:

  • The Lost Dollar Decade
  • LIBOR and EFF spreads over Fed funds target
  • Global dollar markets in perspective
  • Into the shadows of the crisis
  • Financial crisis and the gross outstanding CDS
  • CDS liquidity crisis

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Jeff will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, click “Research Library” and Guest Publications near the top of the page. From there you can download the PDF.

Click here to register for access to supporting materials.

Get embed code for this episode. | For other embed code options click here. | Download the audio MP3 File (61.37 MB) . | Download the podcast transcript:  pdf Here (317 KB)

jessefeldermacrovoicepicErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Jesse Felder to MacroVoices. Erik and Jesse discuss:

  • Drivers behind the everything bubble
  • Will Quantitative Tightening be a trigger?
  • Is this a topping process in the markets?
  • Impacts of a high degree of market leverage
  • The Buffet yard stick
  • What is in store for the FAANG stocks?
  • How to position yourself defensively in this market?
  • Positioning on agricultural and gold mining stocks
  • Inflation and the risks of an inflation pickup

Throughout the interview Erik and Jesse refer to the chart book.  This chart book is available free for registered users.  Register now for free and find the links below. 

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maa photoErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome back Martin Armstrong to MacroVoices. Erik and Martin discuss:

  • Is there room for the equity bull market to continue?
  • Outlook on the global bond markets
  • Is a monetary crisis on the horizon?
  • Outlook for the U.S. Dollar
  • How do the geopolitics playout in Europe?
  • Short bonds long equities?
  • Perspectives on China and their credit markets
  • Where is gold headed next?
  • U.S. politics and the midterm elections
  • What is next for Russia/U.S. relations

SPECIAL POST GAME GUEST- Brent Johnson: CEO of Santiago Capitalbrent johnson

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcom Brent Johnson to the show to discuss everything gold.  They discuss the dollar, short-term and long-term outlook for gold.  

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David Rosenberg headshot 250Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome David Rosenberg to MacroVoices. Erik and Dave discuss:

  • One more leg higher in the S&P500 or is the top in? 
  • Outlook on junk and investment grade bonds
  • How do you do play the short on low grade corporates?
  • Secular and cyclical outlook on inflation
  • Where is the US Dollar heading?  
  • What is going on with 10-year treasury yields and where are they heading?  
  • Update as to where we are in the business cycle 
  • Cyclical vs. defensive stocks in the 2nd half of the year 
  • Outlook on the Canadian dollar 
  • Where are we in the Canadian housing cycle?

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, as Erik and David will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

SPECIAL POST GAME GUEST- Angie Setzer @GoddessofGrainAngieSetzer HeadShot

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Angie Setzer to the show to discuss everything about the grain markets.

During the interview, they discuss wheat, corn and soybeans, food inflation and the impact of tariffs.

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pippa malmgrenErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Dr. Pippa Malmgren to MacroVoices. Erik and Pippa discuss:

  • Trump, art of the deal, trade wars
  • North Korea, a renegade or Chinese puppet
  • Russia, Syria, US and chemical warfare
  • Russia and a new global reserve currency
  • Facebook’s impact on geo-politics and financial markets
  • Where is social media data mining leading us?
  • The Leadership Lab: Understanding Leadership in the 21st century

 

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ChrisCookimageErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Chris Cook to MacroVoices. Erik and Chris discuss:

  • How regulators look at markets
  • The blow out of time spreads in WTI
  • Oil deals outside of the market
  • Syncrude going offline and its impact
  • What is the “big long” and what it predicts
  • Who is buying futures contracts 2.5 years out and why?
  • Dark inventory, what is it and how does it fit into the big picture?
  • Energy dominance and the white house
  • China and the Petro-Yuan contract
  • Gaming US exports and inventory
  • Time spreads and war

SPECIAL POST GAME GUEST-  Josh Steiner:  Update on Australian and U.S. Housing Markets. 

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Eric Peters HeadshotErik Townsend welcomes Eric Peters to MacroVoices. Erik and Eric discuss:

  • Replacing the USD as the world reserve currency
  • The impact of protectionist policies on financial markets
  • FED reductions and their impact around the world
  • How accurate is the current unemployment rate and what does it mean?
  • Entitlements and they will become a serious problem
  • The changes we can expect in central bank attitudes moving forward
  • Demographics, baby boomers, and millennials and their impact over the coming years on financial markets
  • Inflation vs deflation which is right and how to be sure

SPECIAL GUEST: Kevin Muir - This week's co-host and post-game guest.  Make sure to download the post-game chart book as Erik and Kevin will be refering to it through the podcast.  

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LukeGromenErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome back Luke Gromen to MacroVoices. Erik and Luke discuss:

  • Current outlook on the U.S. dollar
  • Shift of funding in the U.S. deficits
  • U.S. “Impossible Trilemma”
  • Treasury bonds trading like a risky asset
  • Fed taking the “Shoot the Hostage” stance
  • Emerging market considerations
  • China accelerating global de-dollarization
  • U.S. weaponizing the USD and oil against Russia and Iran
  • Gold and the gold/oil ratio
  • How to trade the second half of 2018

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, as Erik and Luke will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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EllenAnasJoe

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Anas Alhajji, Joe McMonigle and Dr. Ellen Wald to the show. Discussed this week:

Dr. Ellen Wald

  • Saudi Arabia's perspective on the oil markets?
  • Perspective about Saudi Aramco
  • Understanding Mohammad bin Salman
  • Social Politics in Saudi Arabia

Anas Alhajji & Joe McMonigle

  • What is driving the oil markets right now?
  • Considerations on the Iranian sanctions
  • Insights into next week’s OPEC meeting
  • Bigger picture geopolitical outlook for the oil markets
  • How to interpret the backwardation on oil?

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, as Erik, Anas and Joe will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

Click here to register for access to supporting materials.


Get embed code for this episode | For other embed code options click here | Download the audio MP3 File (72.50 MB) | Download the podcast transcript:   pdf Here (318 KB)

JeffreyShermanHeadShotErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Jeffrey Sherman to MacroVoices. Erik and Jeffrey discuss:

  • Big picture outlook on bonds, interest rates and inflation
  • Considerations on the treasury COT reports
  • Is there a recession coming in the U.S.?
  • How much upside on the U.S. Dollar?
  • Is the trade being short global high yield bonds?
  • How does the economy deal with higher rates and inflation?
  • Bullish outlook on gold?
  • Investing into commodities and commodity funds

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Jeffrey will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

Click here to register for access to supporting materials.


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nomi PrinsErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Nomi Prins to MacroVoices. Erik and Nomi discuss:

  • Why has QE never led to runaway inflation?
  • How has the market been propped up for 10 years without consequence?
  • What does the ECB own today?
  • The bank of Japan, their program and what it contains?
  • Central banks around the world and how they compare?
  • When does tapering occur on a global scale?

For the second featured interview Erik Townsend welcomes Pat Hemsworth to discuss:

  • Why Saudi Arabia and Russia can’t make up their minds about oil prices?
  • Iran sanctions, expectations and what they mean?
  • Venezuela, production and what is next?
  • OPEC, faking it till they make it?
  • What is the forward curve telling us about the market?

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Pat will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

Click here to register for access to supporting materials.


Get embed code for this episode | For other embed code options click here | Download the audio MP3 File (71.00 MB) | Download the podcast transcript:   pdf Here (271 KB)

MACRO VOICES is presented for informational and entertainment purposes only. The information presented in MACRO VOICES should NOT be construed as investment advice. Always consult a licensed investment professional before making important investment decisions. The opinions expressed on MACRO VOICES are those of the participants. MACRO VOICES, its producers, and hosts Erik Townsend and Nathan Egger shall NOT be liable for losses resulting from investment decisions based on information or viewpoints presented on MACRO VOICES.

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