About Erik Townsend

hedge fund manager Erik Townsend

Erik Townsend is a retired software entrepreneur turned hedge fund manager. Throughout his career, Erik has capitalized on his ability to understand complex systems and anticipate paradigm shifts far in advance of the mainstream. Read More...

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Charles Mcelligott Headshot 250xErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Charlie McElligott back to MacroVoices. Erik and Charlie discuss:

  • China Trade Collapse
  • Update on China Credit Impulse
  • PBoC Liquidity Operations
  • Bear market rally or continuation of bull market?
  • Fading the Fed’s economic optimism
  • Sequencing that could cause a force in on the equity markets
  • CTA Model Positioning across asset classes
  • Positioning in risk parity funds
  • Purge in equity fund flows in Q4 2018
  • Fear the steepener

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Christopher Cole Headshot 2019Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Chris Cole back to MacroVoices. Erik and Chris discuss:

  • Dissecting what happened in February 2018
  • Implicit and explicit short vol risk
  • Perspective on the next phase of the short vol unwind
  • Impacts of the reduction of central bank balance sheets
  • Link between volatility and the credit cycle
  • Will the Fed have the ammunition to come to rescue?
  • Perspective of the risk parity funds
  • Stock/bond correlation risk to pension funds
  • What does it take to make money long volatility?

You are strongly advised to listen to Chris Cole’s prior interview, The Alchemy of Risk before listening to this update
Click to listen to Chris Cole's interview back in Janauary 2018

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Marin Katusa OfficeErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Marin Katusa to MacroVoices. Erik and Marin discuss:

  • Update on uranium and uranium producers
  • Outlook on oil prices
  • Opportunities in the steel industry
  • Investing in the diamond industry
  • What is happening in the resource industry?
  • How to be a successful resource investor

Katusa Research Promo for MacroVoice Listeners

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YearEndShowImage2018Join Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna as they spend an episode reviewing the best market calls of 2018:

  • Calling the top of Bitcoin
  • Francesco Filia and Kevin Muir on the VIX ETNs
  • Chris Cole on VIX and system risks
  • Darius Dale on Chinese economy
  • Buy the dip calls in Q2
  • Russell Napier on the Emerging Markets
  • David Rosenberg on markets and corporate bonds
  • Jesse Felder on the FAANG
  • Charlie McElligott on liquidity
  • Keith McCullough on bond yields peaked

 

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DanielWantx250Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Daniel Want to MacroVoices. Erik and Daniel discuss:

  • Understanding system thinking
  • Perspective on the OTC derivative markets
  • Counter party risk in the derivative markets
  • System wide margin calls back in 2007-08
  • Financial aggregates – the world in perspective
  • Understanding the global financial situation
  • Market analytics tools

SPECIAL POST GAME GUEST- BRENT JOHNSON BrentJohnsonx125

  • Where is the U.S. Dollar going post FOMC
  • What is the outlook for gold
  • Where are the stock markets going next

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EdwardAltman250xErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Prof. Edward Altman to MacroVoices. Erik and Edward discuss:

  • Credit cycle outlook
  • Length of benign credit cycles
  • Historical default rates and recessions
  • Surge in U.S. corporate leverage
  • Non-financial Corporate Debt to GDP
  • Considerations on Global Debt
  • 2007 vs 2017 Health of High Yield Firms
  • Major risks going forward

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SPECIAL POST GAME GUEST- LOUIS-VINCENT GAVE - AN IMPORTANT CROSSROADLouis Gave 125x

  • Why a Liquidity Squeeze?
  • Havoc in the US corporate bond market
  • The end of Chin-America

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JulietteDeclercqHeadshot250xErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Juliette Declercq to MacroVoices. Erik and Juliette discuss:

  • Impact of trade war on the global economy
  • PBOC and Chinese monetary policy
  • Global growth outlook
  • U.S. Dollar and U.S. monetary policy outlook
  • Is the Powell dovish pivot a game changer?
  • What is in the cards for 2019?
  • Perspective on U.S. housing and its impact
  • Political turmoil in France and outlook on Europe

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JulianBrigden 250xErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Julian Brigden back to MacroVoices. Erik and Julian discuss:

  • What is driving the bond market right now?
  • Is it all about demographics?
  • The global excesses in the equity markets
  • Are the U.S. housing markets overpriced?
  • Where is the next trade in treasuries?
  • Putting on the steepener
  • Is the stock market due for a big bubble bounce?
  • Inflation considerations in 2019
  • What is the next move for the Fed?

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J ChristianErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Jeffrey Christian to MacroVoices. Erik and Jeffrey discuss:

  • Perspective on the gold and USD price action in October
  • Outlook for gold for 2019 and beyond
  • How does silver playout relative to gold?
  • Gold:silver ratio in perspective
  • Why investment demand has dropped and is it finally bottoming?
  • Drivers on the dollar, bonds and the equity markets
  • What is the risk gold could decline during an equity bear market?
  • Intermarket relationships of gold to other assets
  • Perspective on statistics from the gold and silver markets
  • Platinum and palladium outlook

SPECIAL POST GAME GUEST- Art BermanArthur Berman x125

Art joins Erik and Patrick to discuss the current bear market in oil and asking where is the right price for oil. Chart book available to registered listenered. 

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Keith McCullough headshotErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Keith McCullough to MacroVoices. Erik and Keith discuss:

  • How the investment landscape has evolved?
  • Marginal rates of change in growth and inflation
  • Why are deflationary pressures on the horizon? 
  • Global economic landscape
  • Staying ahead of the curve with the study of rates of change
  • U.S. real GDP and CPI forecasts
  • Key macro themes into the year-end
  • Closer look at the underlying drivers going into 2019
  • Are companies likely to experience a margin squeeze
  • Trouble for China in 2019

TD/TMX Options Education Day - Free to attend - November 21, 2018

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BONUS: Beyond Blockchain, The Death of the Dollar and the Rise of Digital Currency - Chapter 1 Preview

by Erik Townsend

The cryptocurrency trend of the past few years has continued to grow despite widespread predictions that it would just be a flash in the pan. Blockchain is suddenly everyone's favorite buzzword. But what if there's more to this story than meets the eye? What if Digital Currency is about to change the world in ways beyond our imagination? And what if geopolitical forces our politicians don't even understand have already inspired China and Russia to use Digital Currency to attack the U.S. Dollar's dominance over the global financial system?

Erik covers these subjects and more in his recently published book.Listen to a preview of Chapter 1 here.

For more information and to order the paperback, Kindle, or audiobook Click Here

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TepperErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Jonathan Tepper to MacroVoices. Erik and Jonathan discuss:

  • Is the market correction over?
  • Outlook for U.S. interest rates
  • Shorter and longer-term drivers in the dollar
  • China and trade war escalation
  • What are the leading indicators suggesting for inflation?
  • How to interpret the drop in oil prices?
  • What is next for Europe?
  • Update on Australian, Canadian & U.S. real estate
  • The Myth of Capitalism
  • Monopolies and competition

 

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pippa malmgrenErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Pippa Malmgren to MacroVoices. Erik and Pippa discuss:

  • Opportunities on drone technology
  • The leaders in unmanned aerial vehicles
  • Data privacy in the firmware
  • Drones and risks in being used for terrorism
  • Leadership and the new paradigms
  • Speed of technological change and government
  • Situational awareness

MacroVoices LIVE - VANCOUVER 2019 - Early Bird Special Available Now

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DanielLacalleHeadshot250x

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Daniel Lacalle to MacroVoices. Erik and Daniel discuss:

  • Market correction or end of the bull market?
  • Fed’s responsiveness to changing monetary policy
  • Where are bond yield’s heading from here?
  • ECB and Europe’s position on Italy
  • Risk of high yield corporate credit in Europe
  • Emerging markets currency crisis
  • China, trade war, and the credit bubble
  • Gold and the Yuan correlation
  • Is the U.S. economy at risk of a recession?
  • End of global synchronized growth
  • Outlook on commodities into 2019

 

 

MacroVoices LIVE - VANCOUVER 2019 - Early Bird Special Available Now

SPECIAL POST GAME GUEST- Marin Katusa - Katusa Research Marin Katusa 125x

  • Is the gold breakout for real?
  • Update on Mohammed bin Salman and Saudi Arabia

Information about the Silver & Gold Summit in San Francisco October 28-29, 2018 - 30%off promo code: MACRO

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Steve Hanke 250xErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Prof Steve Hanke to MacroVoices. Erik and Steve discuss:

  • Drivers of the recessions over the last 30 years
  • Perspectives on Lehman Brothers failure
  • M4 Money Supply as the broadest measure
  • Dangers in quantitative tightening
  • Commercial banks drive money supply
  • Stabilizing the U.S. Dollar Euro rate
  • Understanding past hyperinflation
  • Perspective on Venezuela's hyperinflation 

Information about the Silver & Gold Summit in San Francisco October 28-29, 2018 - 30%off promo code: MACRO

Chart Book for this week's episode

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PROFESSOR STEVE KEEN headshotErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Prof Steve Keen to MacroVoices. Erik and Steve discuss:

  • Perspective on global sovereign debt
  • Risks in private debt
  • Is government debt still a safe haven? 
  • Junk bonds, corporate debt and credit spreads
  • When does the market start to price risk into junk bonds?
  • How does another financial crisis occur?
  • Vulnerability of France, Canada and Australia
  • Understanding the debt situation in China
  • Global de-dollarization

Prof Steve Keen - Patreon Link 

SPECIAL POST GAME GUEST- CHARLIE MCELLIGOTT - UPDATE ON THE EQUITY MARKETS

Charles Mcelligott Headshot 125x

Discussing the market selloff and the drivers for the next move in the S&P500 .  

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Louis 201211Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Louis-Vincent Gave to MacroVoices. Erik and Louis discuss:

  • Drivers in emerging markets route
  • Perspective on global equity markets
  • How long can the divergence last between US and global equity markets?
  • Impact on U.S. treasuries
  • Is the global de-dollarization
  • Dissolution of Chimerica
  • NAFTA and the changing of the supply chain
  • Outlook for gold and precious metals

Information about the Silver & Gold Summit in San Francisco October 28-29, 2018 - 30%off promo code: MACRO

SPECIAL POST GAME GUEST- Julian Brigden: Update on the Breakout on Yieldsjulian brigden headshot 125x

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Keith Dicker headshotErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Keith Dicker to MacroVoices. Erik and Keith discuss:

  • Understanding the government bond bubble
  • Can equities rally during a bond route?
  • Rethinking bonds and portfolio allocations
  • Artificially suppressed interest rates
  • Has the bear market in bonds started?
  • Growth in the sovereign debt markets
  • Impact of higher rates on governments
  • Outlook on equities and the gold

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Information about the Silver & Gold Summit in San Francisco October 28-29, 2018 - 30%off promo code: MACRO

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Arthur Berman largeErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Art Berman back to MacroVoices. Erik and Art discuss:

  • Comparative inventory on oil
  • Inventory correlation to price
  • Price cycles and the oil-price yield curve
  • Impact of U.S. exporting oil
  • Trends in tight oil rig counts
  • Managed money unwinding net long positions
  • Distillate and gasoline inventories
  • Why is backwardation collapsing on WTI
  • Sensitivities to supply concerns
  • Discrepancies between IEA and OPEC forecasts
  • Where are oil prices going in 2019?

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Charles Mcelligott Headshot 250xErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Charlie McElligott to MacroVoices. Erik and Charlie discuss:

  • Curve steepener as a recession signal
  • Dollar, real rates and inflation expectations impact on S&P500
  • Gauging tighter financial conditions
  • Chinese credit/financing impulse
  • Late cycle behavior from autos and homebuilders
  • Fearing the inversion or the steepener on the yield curve?
  • Nabe wage surveys, unemployment and recessions
  • Hedge fund underperformance and the performance chase

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Marin Katusa OfficeErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Marin Katusa back to MacroVoices. Erik and Marin discuss:

  • Why uranium and why now?
  • Political and geopolitical considerations
  • Understanding the royalty and streaming business
  • Uranium royalties
  • Private placements in a streaming model
  • Understanding warrants on resource companies
  • Focusing on companies that are acquisition targets

Information about Marin Katusa's Premium Research 

MacroVoices LIVE Toronto 2018 - Trailer for Video Access

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MACRO VOICES is presented for informational and entertainment purposes only. The information presented in MACRO VOICES should NOT be construed as investment advice. Always consult a licensed investment professional before making important investment decisions. The opinions expressed on MACRO VOICES are those of the participants. MACRO VOICES, its producers, and hosts Erik Townsend and Nathan Egger shall NOT be liable for losses resulting from investment decisions based on information or viewpoints presented on MACRO VOICES.

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