About Erik Townsend

hedge fund manager Erik Townsend

Erik Townsend is a retired software entrepreneur turned hedge fund manager. Throughout his career, Erik has capitalized on his ability to understand complex systems and anticipate paradigm shifts far in advance of the mainstream. Read More...

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All-Star Juliette Declercq weighs in on what we can expect from this week's FOMC statement, and the disparity between equity and fixed income markets discounting different growth expectations. Also Yuan deval risk. 

  • Factors that will determine the Fed’s “reaction function”
  • Growth & Inflation outlook
  • Discrepancy between equity and fixed income markets in growth expectations
  • Powell’s Priorities: Curve Inversion or Financial Conditions?
  • China’s role in stabilizing the global economy
  • Risk of yuan devaluation


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DanielleAll-Star Danielle DiMartino-Booth: BRACE FOR IMPACT… The Fed is getting ready to launch NIRP!

  • Jay Powell replaced ‘zero lower bound’ in his lexicon with ‘EFFECTIVE lower bound’
  • This is no coincidence; Danielle says they’re getting markets ready for negative interest rates
  • But… wouldn’t that lead to cash hording? Do they have a plan for that?? (Spoiler alert: No, they don’t)
  • What to watch for in next week’s FOMC statement


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male silhouette.Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Josh Steiner to MacroVoices. Erik and Josh discuss:

  • Update on U.S. Housing
  • Residential Construction % of GDP
  • U.S. home affordability remains favorable
  • Rate Shock Redux
  • Lagged effects of rising rates
  • Canadian real estate 
  • Swelling mortgage debt in Canada
  • Deterring foreign ownership
  • Deteriorating household finances 
  • Exposure for the Canadian banks 

SPECIAL POST GAME GUEST- Pete Wargent: Update on Australian Housing Marketmale silhouette

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MVEnergyWeek6This week’s panel: Commercial broker Pat Hemsworth, former regulator Chris Cook, and petroleum geologist Art Berman

  • How can natural gas be in backwardation (Jul-Aug’19) in the summertime, when contango is the norm?
  •  The energy price sell-off has continued even as the stock market has mostly recovered. What’s next for energy prices?

 We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, as Erik and the panelists will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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All-Star Brent Johnson: This past weekend’s developments don’t change Brent’s Dollar-bullish view

 

  • Brent was just featured on last week’s MacroVoices podcast, where he expressed a secular dollar-bullish view
  • Brent says this past weekend’s developments (ECB alluding to rate cuts and U.S.-Mexico tariff deal) don’t change his outlook for the USD
  • Brent explains why there’s still plenty of upside in U.S. stocks, especially if he’s right about the USD


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LukeGromen

All-Star Luke Gromen: The USD-centric system is slowly losing ground

  • Luke opens by reviewing the predictions he made at MacroVoices Live in Toronto, and comparing his predictions with how things have actually turned out in the marketplace
  • Luke reviews the four choices China faces in navigating their monetary policy in the face of ongoing trade negotiations
  • Luke says the implications of China moving to non-dollar settlement for a wide variety of commodities are poorly understood (he then explains them)
  • Luke reviews a variety of indications suggesting the Fed will have to inject liquidity again soon


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JeffSnider AllStarsAll-Star Jeffrey Snider: Yield curves and Eurodollar futures say something is very broken!

  • Why Jeff thinks the Fed has been ‘hiking for all the wrong reasons’
  • What happened on May 29, 2018
  • Eurodollar calendar spreads and what they mean
  • Rate CUTS (not hikes) are coming to an open market committee near you!

Jeff Snider Chartbook - Alhambra Investments June 2019


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male silhouette.Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Brent Johnson to MacroVoices. Erik and Brent discuss:

  • The “Dollar Milkshake Theory”
  • US Economy vs. global economy 
  • Short-term and long-term outlook on gold
  • How the dollar breakout can affect gold
  • Bond yields collapsing - sign of recession?
  • How the Fed’s interest rate cut will affect the dollar
  • The dollar rally and its impact on stocks to move higher
  • Stronger dollar and its deflationary effects on the global economy
  • Why the dollar devaluation is necessary
  • The dollar breakout and its possible effects on the US equity markets

SPECIAL POST GAME GUEST- Adam Collins: Putting CoT data into contextmale silhouette

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male silhouette.This week's MacroVoices Energy Week features Art Berman, Anas Alhajji and Tracy Shuchart

  • Dr. Anas Alhajji on deteriorating U.S. data quality
  • Tracy Shuchart on crude oil spread trades
  • Art Berman on refined product consumption & storage
  • The sea change of sentiment in energy markets & what’s driving it
  • Iran, Saudi Arabia & Venezuela: A deeper look at their options
  • Will OPEC ever stop pricing oil in USD?
  • Upcoming OPEC+ meeting and its significance

 

 

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, as Erik and the panelists will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

Click here to register for access to supporting materials.


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male silhouette.The inaugural episode of MacroVoices INSIDE THE INVESTMENT COMMITTEE featuring Julian Brigden, Juliette Declercq and Alex Gurevich takes you inside the process professional fund managers and their advisers use to source and vet macro trading strategies. 

  • Inside the Investment Committee (IIC) is a brand new podcast format for very advanced traders and investors. The concept is to take you inside the investment committee of a hedge fund, so that you can experience the conversation between a professional hedge fund manager and his advisors and consultants, as they discuss and evaluate new macro trading strategies.
  • The inaugural episode focuses on a trade Julian Brigden first recommended to his institutional clients on July 7th, 2016. The recommended trade was to short fixed income generally, through the 5-year inflation breakevens for sophisticated fixed income traders, and through outright shorts on 5-yr and 10-yr USTs for other traders
  • Julian pitches his trade idea to the critical ears of fund manager Alex Gurevich and fellow institutional adviser Juliette Declercq, and they have plenty of comments to challenge Julian’s thinking.
  • The rationale for putting the original trade on back in the summer of 2016 is discussed first, then the conversation continues to how the UST market has evolved in the 3 years since, and where the opportunities lie today for new trades. On that point, there’s plenty of disagreement between panelists
  • Finally, Alex Gurevich gives a quick income to the pairs trade involving both the Euro currency and USTs which he’ll be pitching to the panel in episode #2.
  • This is the first “new concept” podcast on the MacroVoices Podcast Network, and listener feedback and suggestions are welcome on how to improve the format

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this episode, as Erik and the panelists will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

Click here to register for access to supporting materials.


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JulianArticle

All-Star Julian Brigden: The Fed needs to ease

  • Why the dollar is crucial to kick off the next wave of the cycle
  • Why the feedback loop between asset prices and the real economy is toxic
  • Why the risk reward has deteriorated in the bond market / why bonds aren’t necessarily the correct risk off trade


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SteveKeenArticleAll-Star Steve Keen: Debunking the fake climate science of William Nordhause

  • Prof. Keen’s debunking of the Nobel prize-winning work of economics William Nordhaus
  • The role of Energy in the economy and why classical economic models fail to consider it
  • Why Prof. Keen says the risks posed by climate change are far worse that Nordhaus estimates
  • Prof. Keen’s prediction of an eventual energy short for traders (and our host’s disagreement)

Climate Change and the Nobel Prize in Economics by Steve Keen


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DanielleArticleAll-Star Danielle DiMartino-Booth: Deflation is the name of the game unless/until helicopter money hits the stage

  • We review Danielle’s market calls from her Christmas 2018 newsletter to see how they performed
  • Danielle says USD has reached her upside target and trajectory from here is less clear
  • Danielle still sees lower treasury yields, low inflation, and lower commodity prices on the horizon
  • But she emphasizes that investors must stay nimble, because a change in political winds in favor of Modern Monetary Theory or other “Helicopter Money” benefits could be a game changer

Shadow Boxing the Consensus

Living to Tell


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male silhouette.Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Lakshman Achuthan to MacroVoices. Erik and Lakshman discuss:

  • Are we actually in late cycle dynamics?
  • Concept of late cycle: what is the cycle and how does the cycle work
  • Business cycle vs. Inflation cycle 
  • Using cyclical indicators to monitor where we are in the cycle
  • Growth rate cycle downturns and recoveries
  • Correlation between growth rate downturn and risks of recession
  • 3 P’s: Pronounced, Pervasive and Persistent decline in the growth rate
  • What the leading indicators show when the cycle is ending
  • Length of expansion vs. the severity of recession
  • Characteristics of business cycle, credit cycle and inflation cycle
  • Changes in productivity growth is needed in order to attain higher trend growth
  • Recession serves a purpose in a free market economy

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, as Erik and Lakshman will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

Click here to register for access to supporting materials.


Get embed code for this episode. | For other embed code options click here. | Download the audio MP3 File (63.82 MB) . | Download the podcast transcript:   pdf Here (157 KB)

male silhouette.This week's MacroVoices Energy Week features Ole Hansen, Chris Cook and Patricia Hemsworth. 

  • There’s been a disturbance in the force! (market roller-coaster ride)
  • Is this about energy fundamentals or the stock market driving energy market direction?
  • Where is the market headed from here?
  • Iran military conflict scenario: Is it really bullish for oil prices?
  • Signposts to watch in the week ahead

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All-Star Luke Gromen: There’s reason to think the U.S. Dollar is topping here

Today’s MacroVoices All-Star is Luke Gromen. Luke says that the Fed Funds rate moving stubbornly over IOER is a clear sign that the Fed will soon be forced to supply more dollar liquidity, a bearish sign given current sentiment extremes.

  • It’s possible both stocks AND bonds have it right, and the USD has it wrong
  • Fed Funds moving above IOER “isn’t supposed to happen”
  • This is a real-time indicator that USA is headed for a fiscal crisis
  • The Fed will be forced to resume balance sheet expansion soon
  • Boston Fed governor Lael Brainard’s comments about targeting long-term UST rates

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All-Star Dr.Pippa Malmgren : Geopolitics is increasingly important for investors!

Today’s MacroVoices All-Star is Dr.Pippa Malmgren. Erik and Pippa discuss:

  • U.S.-China Trade Talks and the Huawei debacle
  • Populism winning European Elections (and spreading elsewhere)
  • U.S.-Iran Situation

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KevinMuirArticle

All-Star Kevin Muir says the market is way ahead of the Fed in pricing in easing!

Today’s MacroVoices All-Star is Kevin Muir. Erik and Kevin discuss:

  • Kevin says the market is way ahead of the Fed pricing in accommodative monetary policy
  • Kevin thinks bond longs betting on economic collapse will be disappointed
  • Skew in Eurodollar futures offers trading opportunity
  • Fixed income vol is dirt cheap relative to equity vol
  • Why shorting an INDEX is the wrong way to play a bearish view on U.S./China trade negotiations

Kevin Muir MacroTourist Chartbook

 

 


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male silhouette.Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome John Greenwood to MacroVoices. Erik and John discuss:

  • Where are we in the business cycle and what comes next?
  • The mechanics of what really drives the cycle
  • Understanding the importance of broad money
  • Relationship of money growth and GDP
  • The signs at the end of the business cycle
  • The role the debt plays in the business cycle
  • Money supply measured by M2/M3
  • Money and the shadow banking system
  • Broad money growth vs. inflation average

 

 

 

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, as Erik and John will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

Click here to register for access to supporting materials.


Get embed code for this episode. | For other embed code options click here. | Download the audio MP3 File (66.71 MB) . | Download the podcast transcript: pdf Here (139 KB)

male silhouette.This week's panelists: Art Berman, Anas Alhajji and Patricia Hemsworth

  • Anas Alhajji on pricing oil in USD vs. other currencies
  • Pat Hemsworth on finished product inventories as refinery maintenance season winds downTopic 3
  • Art Berman on sustainability/growth of U.S. shale production
  • Iran/Geopolitical Risk Update
  • Why are front-month oil prices trading flat-to-down even as backwardation steepens in forward curves?
  • Brent-WTI Spread: What’s driving it to such a wide discount ($9.49 as of today’s close), and what comes next?

Supporting Materials for Download

Art Berman Chartbook


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MACRO VOICES is presented for informational and entertainment purposes only. The information presented in MACRO VOICES should NOT be construed as investment advice. Always consult a licensed investment professional before making important investment decisions. The opinions expressed on MACRO VOICES are those of the participants. MACRO VOICES, its producers, and hosts Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna shall NOT be liable for losses resulting from investment decisions based on information or viewpoints presented on MACRO VOICES.

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