About Erik Townsend

hedge fund manager Erik Townsend

Erik Townsend is a retired software entrepreneur turned hedge fund manager. Throughout his career, Erik has capitalized on his ability to understand complex systems and anticipate paradigm shifts far in advance of the mainstream. Read More...

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Welcome to Macro Voices

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Juliette Declercq to MacroVoices. Erik and Juliette discuss:

  • Perspectives on the latest FOMC meeting
  • Is China a part of reflation equation?
  • Perspectives on inflation
  • Will ECB hike or the Fed lower to zero in 2020?
  • Expectations of fiscal responses to macroeconomic challenges
  • Translating the macro views to trading strategies
  • Outlook on US equities 
  • US/China trade deal news driven move in the market – should we take it seriously?
  • Outlook on gold

Download the podcast transcript: [Click Here

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this episode, as Erik and Juliette will refer to it throughout the interview. If you are already registered at MacroVoices.com, just login and the download link will appear here once you're logged in. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

 

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SPECIAL POST GAME GUEST- Jeff Snider




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All-Star Jeff Snider and Erik discuss:

  • Comparing the popular narrative of rapidly improving sentiment with global dollar liquidity indicators
  • Beyond Trade Wars and Trump Tweets: What liquidity indicators are actually telling us about the global economic outlook
  • The “King Dollar” meme: Why a strong USD doesn’t necessarily imply U.S. economic outperformance

Supporting Materials for Download

It Is A Eurodollar World : There Are No Strong Dollars - Jeff Snider 2019 12 09 

Reuters article: BIS on Causes of Repo Shock 

BIS Quarterly Review 

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Mark Gordon to MacroVoices. Erik and Mark discuss:

  • Inventory is not what drives the price
  • Hubbert’s peak –regime change from the age of peak oil to the age of abundance
  • Has conventional production reached its peak?
  • Shale oil vs. offshore oil
  • Why “the day of reckoning” will happen soon
  • Electric vehicles – declining sales and outlook going forward
  • Possible impacts the recession will have on oil prices

Download the podcast transcript: [Click Here]

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this episode, as Erik and Mark will refer to it throughout the interview. If you are already registered at MacroVoices.com, just login and the download link will appear here once you're logged in. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

Click here to register for access to supporting materials.

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All-Star Dr. Pippa Malmgren and Erik discuss:

  • The real reason the Hong Kong protests have centered on Hong Kong Polytechnic University
  • Faith in large institutions and the complacency of investors relative to associated risks
  • Why Pippa remains bullish on technology innovation and global growth despite geopolitical risks

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All-Star Brent Johnson and Erik discuss:

  • Two potential trajectories for the U.S. Dollar Index
  • Why Brent thinks stocks still have higher to go, even from these lofty levels
  • China, trade deal, and currency rate component of the trade deal
  • Canadian Interest Rates
  • Gold outlook

Supporting Materials for Download

All-Stars #81 Brent Johnson Slidedeck 

 

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Jeffrey Christian to MacroVoices. Erik and Jeffrey discuss:

  • Electric Vehicles – where is the energy coming from?
  • Is “nuclear renaissance” imminent?
  • What is going to be the mode of power in the future and how will it be delivered
  • Replacing petroleum and what impact it has on geopolitics
  • Changing roles of Russia and China in geopolitics

Download the podcast transcript: [Click Here]

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this episode, as Erik and Jeffrey will refer to it throughout the interview. If you are already registered at MacroVoices.com, just login and the download link will appear here once you're logged in. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

Click here to register for access to supporting materials.

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All-Star Prof. Steve Keen and Erik discuss:

  • Steve’s 2016 prediction that the Fed would eventually be forced to return to QE and why current events prove it true
  • Costs and benefits of QE in the real world
  • Private debt and the inflated corporate bond market as a result of QE translates to higher risk for the next financial crisis

Supporting Materials for Download

Tilting At Windmills: The Faustian Folly Of Quantitative Easing 

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Peter Boockvar to MacroVoices. Erik and Peter discuss:

  • Global macro outlook 
  • Will US get to negative interest rates?
  • The recent back-up in yields - is this a trend reversal or a correction
  • Inevitability of inflation and its effects on central banks
  • Is this the end of the bond bubble?
  • Perspectives on Christine Lagarde, ECB and Brexit
  • Outlook on US/China trade negotiations
  • Fed’s “insurance” cuts– what’s next?
  • Portfolio positioning strategies 
  • Gold-Silver ratio and portfolio allocation in precious metals.

Download the podcast transcript: [Click Here]

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this episode, as Erik and Patrick will refer to it throughout postgame. If you are already registered at MacroVoices.com, just login and the download link will appear here once you're logged in. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

Click here to register for access to supporting materials.

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All-Star Louis-Vincent Gave and Erik discuss:

  • Update on latest status from Hong Kong
  • The bigger picture: Civil unrest around the globe, what’s driving it, what we should expect next
  • The return of Inflation: Louis’ market outlook

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All-Star Jeff Snider and Erik discuss:

  • Markets grinding to new all-time highs on relief that the recession scare is now over and forgotten.
  • History teaches us it’s not over, but widespread complacency that it is typifies this point in the cycle
  • Everyone is assuming that a trade deal will “fix everything”. Jeff says that belief is misplaced as well.

Supporting Materials for Download

Is It Over? Or just Intermission of a Two Act "Dollar" Play - Jeff Snider 

MACRO VOICES is presented for informational and entertainment purposes only. The information presented in MACRO VOICES should NOT be construed as investment advice. Always consult a licensed investment professional before making important investment decisions. The opinions expressed on MACRO VOICES are those of the participants. MACRO VOICES, its producers, and hosts Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna shall NOT be liable for losses resulting from investment decisions based on information or viewpoints presented on MACRO VOICES.

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