About Erik Townsend

hedge fund manager Erik Townsend

Erik Townsend is a retired software entrepreneur turned hedge fund manager. Throughout his career, Erik has capitalized on his ability to understand complex systems and anticipate paradigm shifts far in advance of the mainstream. Read More...

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Welcome to Macro Voices

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Keith McCullough headshotErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Keith McCullough to MacroVoices. Erik and Keith discuss:

  • How the investment landscape has evolved?
  • Marginal rates of change in growth and inflation
  • Why are deflationary pressures on the horizon? 
  • Global economic landscape
  • Staying ahead of the curve with the study of rates of change
  • U.S. real GDP and CPI forecasts
  • Key macro themes into the year-end
  • Closer look at the underlying drivers going into 2019
  • Are companies likely to experience a margin squeeze
  • Trouble for China in 2019

TD/TMX Options Education Day - Free to attend - November 21, 2018

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BONUS: Beyond Blockchain, The Death of the Dollar and the Rise of Digital Currency - Chapter 1 Preview

by Erik Townsend

The cryptocurrency trend of the past few years has continued to grow despite widespread predictions that it would just be a flash in the pan. Blockchain is suddenly everyone's favorite buzzword. But what if there's more to this story than meets the eye? What if Digital Currency is about to change the world in ways beyond our imagination? And what if geopolitical forces our politicians don't even understand have already inspired China and Russia to use Digital Currency to attack the U.S. Dollar's dominance over the global financial system?

Erik covers these subjects and more in his recently published book.Listen to a preview of Chapter 1 here.

For more information and to order the paperback, Kindle, or audiobook Click Here

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TepperErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Jonathan Tepper to MacroVoices. Erik and Jonathan discuss:

  • Is the market correction over?
  • Outlook for U.S. interest rates
  • Shorter and longer-term drivers in the dollar
  • China and trade war escalation
  • What are the leading indicators suggesting for inflation?
  • How to interpret the drop in oil prices?
  • What is next for Europe?
  • Update on Australian, Canadian & U.S. real estate
  • The Myth of Capitalism
  • Monopolies and competition

 

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pippa malmgrenErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Pippa Malmgren to MacroVoices. Erik and Pippa discuss:

  • Opportunities on drone technology
  • The leaders in unmanned aerial vehicles
  • Data privacy in the firmware
  • Drones and risks in being used for terrorism
  • Leadership and the new paradigms
  • Speed of technological change and government
  • Situational awareness

MacroVoices LIVE - VANCOUVER 2019 - Early Bird Special Available Now

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DanielLacalleHeadshot250x

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Daniel Lacalle to MacroVoices. Erik and Daniel discuss:

  • Market correction or end of the bull market?
  • Fed’s responsiveness to changing monetary policy
  • Where are bond yield’s heading from here?
  • ECB and Europe’s position on Italy
  • Risk of high yield corporate credit in Europe
  • Emerging markets currency crisis
  • China, trade war, and the credit bubble
  • Gold and the Yuan correlation
  • Is the U.S. economy at risk of a recession?
  • End of global synchronized growth
  • Outlook on commodities into 2019

 

 

MacroVoices LIVE - VANCOUVER 2019 - Early Bird Special Available Now

SPECIAL POST GAME GUEST- Marin Katusa - Katusa Research Marin Katusa 125x

  • Is the gold breakout for real?
  • Update on Mohammed bin Salman and Saudi Arabia

Information about the Silver & Gold Summit in San Francisco October 28-29, 2018 - 30%off promo code: MACRO

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Steve Hanke 250xErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Prof Steve Hanke to MacroVoices. Erik and Steve discuss:

  • Drivers of the recessions over the last 30 years
  • Perspectives on Lehman Brothers failure
  • M4 Money Supply as the broadest measure
  • Dangers in quantitative tightening
  • Commercial banks drive money supply
  • Stabilizing the U.S. Dollar Euro rate
  • Understanding past hyperinflation
  • Perspective on Venezuela's hyperinflation 

Information about the Silver & Gold Summit in San Francisco October 28-29, 2018 - 30%off promo code: MACRO

Chart Book for this week's episode

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PROFESSOR STEVE KEEN headshotErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Prof Steve Keen to MacroVoices. Erik and Steve discuss:

  • Perspective on global sovereign debt
  • Risks in private debt
  • Is government debt still a safe haven? 
  • Junk bonds, corporate debt and credit spreads
  • When does the market start to price risk into junk bonds?
  • How does another financial crisis occur?
  • Vulnerability of France, Canada and Australia
  • Understanding the debt situation in China
  • Global de-dollarization

Prof Steve Keen - Patreon Link 

SPECIAL POST GAME GUEST- CHARLIE MCELLIGOTT - UPDATE ON THE EQUITY MARKETS

Charles Mcelligott Headshot 125x

Discussing the market selloff and the drivers for the next move in the S&P500 .  

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Louis 201211Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Louis-Vincent Gave to MacroVoices. Erik and Louis discuss:

  • Drivers in emerging markets route
  • Perspective on global equity markets
  • How long can the divergence last between US and global equity markets?
  • Impact on U.S. treasuries
  • Is the global de-dollarization
  • Dissolution of Chimerica
  • NAFTA and the changing of the supply chain
  • Outlook for gold and precious metals

Information about the Silver & Gold Summit in San Francisco October 28-29, 2018 - 30%off promo code: MACRO

SPECIAL POST GAME GUEST- Julian Brigden: Update on the Breakout on Yieldsjulian brigden headshot 125x

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Keith Dicker headshotErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Keith Dicker to MacroVoices. Erik and Keith discuss:

  • Understanding the government bond bubble
  • Can equities rally during a bond route?
  • Rethinking bonds and portfolio allocations
  • Artificially suppressed interest rates
  • Has the bear market in bonds started?
  • Growth in the sovereign debt markets
  • Impact of higher rates on governments
  • Outlook on equities and the gold

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Information about the Silver & Gold Summit in San Francisco October 28-29, 2018 - 30%off promo code: MACRO

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Arthur Berman largeErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Art Berman back to MacroVoices. Erik and Art discuss:

  • Comparative inventory on oil
  • Inventory correlation to price
  • Price cycles and the oil-price yield curve
  • Impact of U.S. exporting oil
  • Trends in tight oil rig counts
  • Managed money unwinding net long positions
  • Distillate and gasoline inventories
  • Why is backwardation collapsing on WTI
  • Sensitivities to supply concerns
  • Discrepancies between IEA and OPEC forecasts
  • Where are oil prices going in 2019?

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Charles Mcelligott Headshot 250xErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Charlie McElligott to MacroVoices. Erik and Charlie discuss:

  • Curve steepener as a recession signal
  • Dollar, real rates and inflation expectations impact on S&P500
  • Gauging tighter financial conditions
  • Chinese credit/financing impulse
  • Late cycle behavior from autos and homebuilders
  • Fearing the inversion or the steepener on the yield curve?
  • Nabe wage surveys, unemployment and recessions
  • Hedge fund underperformance and the performance chase

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Marin Katusa OfficeErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Marin Katusa back to MacroVoices. Erik and Marin discuss:

  • Why uranium and why now?
  • Political and geopolitical considerations
  • Understanding the royalty and streaming business
  • Uranium royalties
  • Private placements in a streaming model
  • Understanding warrants on resource companies
  • Focusing on companies that are acquisition targets

Information about Marin Katusa's Premium Research 

MacroVoices LIVE Toronto 2018 - Trailer for Video Access

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DDB Headshot NewErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Danielle DiMartino Booth to MacroVoices. Erik and Danielle discuss:

  • Jay Powell as the new Fed Chair
  • Jackson Hole – Draghi and Kuroda absence
  • Jackson Hole – How did Powell do?
  • Impacts from the trade war
  • Should markets be concerned about QT
  • Impact of the rising dollar on Fed policy
  • Where is the economy headed?
  • Inflation expectations moving forward
  • Economic outlook in Europe and China
  • What is the trade into the year end?

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JeffreySniderEurodollar University 02 bErik Townsend welcomes back Jeffrey Snider to MacroVoices. Erik and Jeffrey discuss:

  • Considerations on Federal Reserve Intervention
  • Switzerland as a major supplier of dollars
  • Structural changes to the Eurodollar System
  • Riskless return shifts to returnless risk
  • Banks simply do not want to do it anymore
  • Impact to sustained economic growth
  • Impact on global economies including EM and China

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Jeff will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, click “Research Library” and Guest Publications near the top of the page. From there you can download the PDF.

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JeffreySniderEurodollar University 02 bErik Townsend welcomes back Jeffrey Snider to MacroVoices. Erik and Jeffrey discuss:

  • Collateral problems with gold in 2008
  • Liquidity risk, not credit
  • Basic Interbank Function – Basel ‘Conjuring’
  • Larger issue of balance sheet capacity
  • Management of the asset side – dark leverage
  • Impaired assets and OTTI
  • Negative swap spreads assaulting conventional financial sense
  • Pro-cyclical positive monetary feedback loop
  • Balance sheet capacity – the modern bank run

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Jeff will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, click “Research Library” and Guest Publications near the top of the page. From there you can download the PDF.

Click here to register for access to supporting materials.

Get embed code for this episode. | For other embed code options click here. | Download the audio MP3 File (55.73 MB) . | Download the podcast transcript:  pdf Here (327 KB)

JeffreySniderEurodollar University 02 bErik Townsend welcomes back Jeffrey Snider to MacroVoices. Erik and Jeffrey discuss:

  • The Lost Dollar Decade
  • LIBOR and EFF spreads over Fed funds target
  • Global dollar markets in perspective
  • Into the shadows of the crisis
  • Financial crisis and the gross outstanding CDS
  • CDS liquidity crisis

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Jeff will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, click “Research Library” and Guest Publications near the top of the page. From there you can download the PDF.

Click here to register for access to supporting materials.

Get embed code for this episode. | For other embed code options click here. | Download the audio MP3 File (61.37 MB) . | Download the podcast transcript:  pdf Here (317 KB)

jessefeldermacrovoicepicErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Jesse Felder to MacroVoices. Erik and Jesse discuss:

  • Drivers behind the everything bubble
  • Will Quantitative Tightening be a trigger?
  • Is this a topping process in the markets?
  • Impacts of a high degree of market leverage
  • The Buffet yard stick
  • What is in store for the FAANG stocks?
  • How to position yourself defensively in this market?
  • Positioning on agricultural and gold mining stocks
  • Inflation and the risks of an inflation pickup

Throughout the interview Erik and Jesse refer to the chart book.  This chart book is available free for registered users.  Register now for free and find the links below. 

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maa photoErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome back Martin Armstrong to MacroVoices. Erik and Martin discuss:

  • Is there room for the equity bull market to continue?
  • Outlook on the global bond markets
  • Is a monetary crisis on the horizon?
  • Outlook for the U.S. Dollar
  • How do the geopolitics playout in Europe?
  • Short bonds long equities?
  • Perspectives on China and their credit markets
  • Where is gold headed next?
  • U.S. politics and the midterm elections
  • What is next for Russia/U.S. relations

SPECIAL POST GAME GUEST- Brent Johnson: CEO of Santiago Capitalbrent johnson

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcom Brent Johnson to the show to discuss everything gold.  They discuss the dollar, short-term and long-term outlook for gold.  

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David Rosenberg headshot 250Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome David Rosenberg to MacroVoices. Erik and Dave discuss:

  • One more leg higher in the S&P500 or is the top in? 
  • Outlook on junk and investment grade bonds
  • How do you do play the short on low grade corporates?
  • Secular and cyclical outlook on inflation
  • Where is the US Dollar heading?  
  • What is going on with 10-year treasury yields and where are they heading?  
  • Update as to where we are in the business cycle 
  • Cyclical vs. defensive stocks in the 2nd half of the year 
  • Outlook on the Canadian dollar 
  • Where are we in the Canadian housing cycle?

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, as Erik and David will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

SPECIAL POST GAME GUEST- Angie Setzer @GoddessofGrainAngieSetzer HeadShot

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Angie Setzer to the show to discuss everything about the grain markets.

During the interview, they discuss wheat, corn and soybeans, food inflation and the impact of tariffs.

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pippa malmgrenErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Dr. Pippa Malmgren to MacroVoices. Erik and Pippa discuss:

  • Trump, art of the deal, trade wars
  • North Korea, a renegade or Chinese puppet
  • Russia, Syria, US and chemical warfare
  • Russia and a new global reserve currency
  • Facebook’s impact on geo-politics and financial markets
  • Where is social media data mining leading us?
  • The Leadership Lab: Understanding Leadership in the 21st century

 

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ChrisCookimageErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Chris Cook to MacroVoices. Erik and Chris discuss:

  • How regulators look at markets
  • The blow out of time spreads in WTI
  • Oil deals outside of the market
  • Syncrude going offline and its impact
  • What is the “big long” and what it predicts
  • Who is buying futures contracts 2.5 years out and why?
  • Dark inventory, what is it and how does it fit into the big picture?
  • Energy dominance and the white house
  • China and the Petro-Yuan contract
  • Gaming US exports and inventory
  • Time spreads and war

SPECIAL POST GAME GUEST-  Josh Steiner:  Update on Australian and U.S. Housing Markets. 

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MACRO VOICES is presented for informational and entertainment purposes only. The information presented in MACRO VOICES should NOT be construed as investment advice. Always consult a licensed investment professional before making important investment decisions. The opinions expressed on MACRO VOICES are those of the participants. MACRO VOICES, its producers, and hosts Erik Townsend and Nathan Egger shall NOT be liable for losses resulting from investment decisions based on information or viewpoints presented on MACRO VOICES.

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