About Erik Townsend

hedge fund manager Erik Townsend

Erik Townsend is a retired software entrepreneur turned hedge fund manager. Throughout his career, Erik has capitalized on his ability to understand complex systems and anticipate paradigm shifts far in advance of the mainstream. Read More...

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male silhouette.Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Mark Cudmore to MacroVoices. Erik and Mark discuss:

  • Outlook on global growth and economy
  • US growth outlook
  • US/China trade negotiations
  • Unemployment rates and recession forecast
  • US equity market and its effects on emerging markets
  • Factors that drove the recent rally and the outlook on the next two quarters
  • US treasury market, the yield curve and the US dollar
  • The decline in the US share of global GDP
  • Outlook on the British Pound and the Hong Kong dollar

SPECIAL POST GAME GUEST- Danielle DiMartino-Booth: Follow up on FOMCmale silhouette

  • Is this a midcycle adjustment
  • Will the ECB cut in September
  • What is the next move for Powell

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MVEnergyWeek13This week’s panel: Art Berman, Anas Alhajji and Tracy Shuchart

  • Anas Alhajji on the various proposals on the table for 2020 Election Season
  • Art Berman on whether the popular “cashflow narrative” really explains the sell-off in E&P stocks
  • Tracy Shuchart on the macro backdrop and price outlook
  • EIA’s 8.5mm bbl drawdown doesn’t jibe with increased production and lower exports
  • Form 914 (EIA monthly data for May)
  • Tight oil company valuations with slide deck from Art Berman

 We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, as Erik and the panelists will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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All-Star Jeff Snider and Erik discuss:

  • Anomalous behavior of EFF relative to IOER in 2018/19
  • Why the Fed describes IOER as a floor or double-floor BELOW EFF
  • Why it doesn’t work that way in the real world
  • Contrasting Jeff’s views with Luke Gromen’s “balance sheet capacity” argument
  • Why treasuries and other sovereign credits are really balance sheet instruments, not investments
  • Japanese vs. U.S. over-indebtedness and implications

Jeff Snider Chartbook July 30 2019 


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All-Star Danielle DiMartino Booth and Erik discuss:

  • What to expect from this week’s FOMC
  • Will we get a 50bps cut or just 25?
  • Is there a risk that a 25bps cut would disappoint markets and still lead to a big correction?
  • How will the ECB and other central banks react?
  • What’s in store when Christine Lagarde eventually takes the helm of the ECB in November?


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Pippa Malmgren

All-Star Pippa Malmgren and Erik discuss:

  • Iran geopolitical situation – what’s at risk and what comes next?
  • Update to Pippa’s prediction Donald Trump has aspirations of a major media empire after the White House
  • Personal data monetization trends and Facebook’s record $5bn fine for privacy violations


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male silhouette.Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Dr. Peter Warburton to MacroVoices. Erik and Dr. Warburton discuss:

  • “Blowing Up the Box” – what is the policy box?
  • Factors that affect long term outlook for inflation
  • History of inflation and policy framework
  • Inflation is necessary for successful financial repression
  • What is causing the “policy box” to be redesigned
  • History of inflation targeting and inflation controls
  • Driving factors for inflation expectations
  • Is the recent breakout in gold a sign of inflation?
  • Outlook on next QE
  • Is stagflation imminent?

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, as Erik and Dr. Warburton will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

Click here to register for access to supporting materials.


Get embed code for this episode. | For other embed code options click here. | Download the audio MP3 File (55.76 MB) . | Download the podcast transcript:   pdf Here (132 KB)

MVEnergyWeek6This week’s panel: Art Berman, Chris Cook and Patricia Hemsworth

  • Pat Hemsworth on the AMLO administration’s plans for Pemex
  • Chris Cook on geopolitical risk and why the Iranian situation hasn’t blown up oil prices
  • Art Berman on why gas prices haven’t fallen more given recent developments
  • EIA’s 10.8 mm bbl draw, and the market DROPS on the news???
  • Iran situation and why it hasn’t resulted in higher oil prices
  • 2020 Pemex Hedge
  • Under-reporting of Permian Basin Fracking

 We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, as Erik and the panelists will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

Click here to register for access to supporting materials.


Get embed code for this episode. | For other embed code options click here. | Download the  audio MP3 File (47.15 MB) .

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All-Star Julian Brigden and Erik discuss:

  • If central banks are powerless to contain deflationary pressures, what are the implications for Pensions?
  • Is it possible to enter recession without first seeing a 2s10s curve inversion?
  • Longer-term outlook for bond yields, esp. U.S. 10yr

 


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All-Star Luke Gromen and Erik discuss:

  • Luke says the real reason for the coming rate cut is to enable US private sector financing of government deficits
  • Luke elaborates on his views about balance sheet capacity driving FF>IOER
  • Luke’s expectations for market moves when a debt ceiling increase is confirmed


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All-Star Danielle DiMartino-Booth and Erik discuss:

  • As Danielle explained in her prior interview, the U.S. economy isn’t immune to the global growth slowdown.
  • But what about Brent Johnson’s view that a global safety trade could keep the stock market party going a while longer?
  • Danielle’s take on the possibility of President Trump bypassing the Fed and intervening to weaken the dollar through executive action
  • Why we should be thinking about the possibility of #DoubleEasing – both QE and rate cuts at the same time


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MACRO VOICES is presented for informational and entertainment purposes only. The information presented in MACRO VOICES should NOT be construed as investment advice. Always consult a licensed investment professional before making important investment decisions. The opinions expressed on MACRO VOICES are those of the participants. MACRO VOICES, its producers, and hosts Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna shall NOT be liable for losses resulting from investment decisions based on information or viewpoints presented on MACRO VOICES.

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