About Erik Townsend

hedge fund manager Erik Townsend

Erik Townsend is a retired software entrepreneur turned hedge fund manager. Throughout his career, Erik has capitalized on his ability to understand complex systems and anticipate paradigm shifts far in advance of the mainstream. Read More...

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Jim Bianco to MacroVoices. Erik and Jim discuss:

  • Update on the COVID-19 
  • The impact of the virus on the economy and markets
  • Systemic risks to markets and impact on dealers
  • Has the FED put has expired?
  • Should the markets be shutdown, and what is the alternative?
  • Breaking of the stock vs. bond correlation 
  • Credit risks and the future impact on high yields 

Download the podcast transcript: [Click Here]

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this episode, as Erik and Patrick will refer to it throughout postgame. If you are already registered at MacroVoices.com, just login and the download link will appear here once you're logged in. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

 

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SPECIAL POST GAME GUEST- Kevin Muir

The MacroTourist 

Kevin Muir Macro Tourist: Governments Are Panicking 

Click here to register for access to supporting materials.

 

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This episode of Hot Topic features...

  • BLOCKBUSTER: The Imperial College Report—what it says and why it’s making such an impact on policymakers
  • Lessons from Hubei Province: Why shouldn’t we expect a similar outcome in the USA?
  • Making it Personal: Erik’s own experience with “probably having COVID19”

Supporting Materials for Download

Imperial College Report on COVID-19 Pandemic 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

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All-Star Jeff Snider and Erik discuss:

  • Despite modern complexities in finance and money, the basic issue is old fashioned currency elasticity. Central banks are not suited for it, and the results are obvious now.
  • September's repo event said that money dealers when faced with irregularities would sit on the sidelines regardless of Fed action. They are definitely sitting on the sidelines.
  • Market liquidations come down to repo market - on the collateral side.
  • Stocks, rates, credit, gold, crude; all these asset classes joined by the same factor.
  • QE's are coming not because they work but because that's what central banks do. Bureaucracies care more for their routines than the results.  

Supporting Materials for Download

Jeff Snider Chartbook: Elasticity - But What is the Currency 

                                                                 Jeff Snider: Since 2008 major turning points in Gold have been punctuated by Eurodollar anomalies

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This episode of Hot Topic features...

  • Before, After, and Inbetween: Lenore’s experience watching a society go from complete denial to new normal in 72 hours
  • Seeing it Coming: As the author of an article PREDICTING healthcare facilities being overwhelmed, how did Lenore’s experience in Italy compare to her predictions?
  • Lenore’s outlook for and advice to Americans, Brits, and others around the world: What’s coming and what you can expect it to be like
  • Economic impacts on stock indices, commodities, and other markets

Supporting Materials for Download

Coronavirus: Is It No Major Worry Or A Pandemic? Yes 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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This episode of Hot Topic features Tracy Shuchart. Erik and Tracy discuss:

  • The COVID19 Crisis: Recap on what Erik sees on the horizon (see also full podcast yesterday)
  • What COVID19 demand destruction means for energy markets
  • OPEC+ and Russia: What happened? Are they bluffing or is this really a price war?
  • What does it all mean for U.S. Shale, and is a shale industry bail-out politically tenable in an election year?

 

 

 

 

 

 

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This episode of Hot Topic features...

  • Outlook: 1 month before USA and all of Europe experience total failure of their healthcare systems (Italy is already there)
  • Review of what led to Wuhan outbreak
  • Why Hong Kong and Singapore were able to get their outbreaks under control
  • Lessons learned from South Korea
  • What went so wrong in Italy and why are USA and all of Europe about to repeat those mistakes?
  • USA – the Land of Denial
  • Market and Economic effects
  • Election dynamics in USA

Supporting Materials for Download

The W.H.O. (Finally!) Declares Coronavirus A "Pandemic" 

Peak Prosperity 

 

 

 

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Axel Merk to MacroVoices. Erik and Axel discuss:

  • COVID-19 driving bonds to new all-time highs 
  • What’s contributing to US Dollar breakdown?
  • Why are treasury yields crashing and will it continue?
  • What is the threshold for zero-bound treasury yield?
  • Is it time to short high-yield and what are its risks?
  • Perspectives on possible bail-out for shale oil producers
  • Impacts of the COVID-19 crisis on the upcoming presidential elections
  • Outlook on gold and gold mining shares
  • FED’s emergency cut – what’s next? 

Download the podcast transcript: [Click Here]

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this episode, as Erik and Patrick will refer to it throughout postgame. If you are already registered at MacroVoices.com, just login and the download link will appear here once you're logged in. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

Click here to register for access to supporting materials.

 

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All-Star Juliette and Erik discuss:

  • Juliette’s analysis of market risks created by the COVID-19 pandemic
  • Understanding why serious complication rate is (economically) more important than case fatality rate or mortality rate
  • Juliette’s guidance on translating these views to actionable trading strategies

 

Supporting Materials for Download

A real macroeconomic plague - MARCH 2020 

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Jesse Felder to MacroVoices. Erik and Jesse discuss:

  • Is COVID-19 the catalyst that changed the direction in the market?
  • FED stimulus – how long will this bounce last?
  • How much downside is expected in order to take excess buying out of the market
  • Upside in the market caused by central bank response – what happens next?
  • Will inflation return in the near future and what are its systemic risks
  • Asset allocation strategy to accommodate the return of inflation
  • Current buying opportunities in value investing 

Download the podcast transcript: [Click Here]

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this episode, as Erik and Patrick will refer to it throughout postgame. If you are already registered at MacroVoices.com, just login and the download link will appear here once you're logged in. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

Click here to register for access to supporting materials.

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All-Star Brent Johnson and Erik discuss:

  • Dollar update: Still in a long-term uptrend despite recent weakness
  • Why Brent would buy stocks hand over fist if we see another 10% sell-off from here
  • Why gold has been weak despite bullish fundamentals, and outlook for precious metals

Supporting Materials for Download

Brent Johnson Chartbook - MacroVoices All-Stars 03 04 2020

MACRO VOICES is presented for informational and entertainment purposes only. The information presented in MACRO VOICES should NOT be construed as investment advice. Always consult a licensed investment professional before making important investment decisions. The opinions expressed on MACRO VOICES are those of the participants. MACRO VOICES, its producers, and hosts Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna shall NOT be liable for losses resulting from investment decisions based on information or viewpoints presented on MACRO VOICES.

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