About Erik Townsend

hedge fund manager Erik Townsend

Erik Townsend is a retired software entrepreneur turned hedge fund manager. Throughout his career, Erik has capitalized on his ability to understand complex systems and anticipate paradigm shifts far in advance of the mainstream. Read More...

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All-Star Prof. Steve Keen on Richard Vague’s new book, A Brief History of Doom

Today’s MacroVoices All-Star is Professor SteveKeen, who weighs in on Richard Vague’s new book, A Brief History of Doom. Steve says Vague has it exactly right, and his analysis of what caused 2008’s Great Financial Crisis jibes almost exactly with Steve’s own analysis of that event.

 Prof. Steve Keen's Article on Richard Vague's book (PDF) 

or on his website: A Brief History of Doom: The New Kindleberger and Mackay

 

 


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All-Star Juliette Declercq on Populism

Juliette Declercq believes the surprise outcome of the Australian elections is an important signal as the global populist movement calls for more socialism, yet Australia’s Labor Party was defeated in a surprise ‘upset’ election. Juliette examines the costs of socialism and concludes that deficit spending can continue indefinitely, until inflation re-emerges as a macro risk

 


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All-Star Brent Johnson: Much higher stock prices possible

Santiago Capital founder Brent Johnson says that U.S. Dollar appreciation could make U.S. stocks (yes, stocks, not treasuries) the preferred safe-haven asset for foreign investors who’ll realize a double-return from investing in U.S. stocks in an appreciating U.S. Dollar macro environment where the return on the stock’s appreciation is enhanced by the foreign exchange performance of the investor’s conversion from his local currency into USD in order to purchase U.S. equities


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male silhouette.Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Simon White to MacroVoices. Erik and Simon discuss:

  • Variant Perception data driven approach
  • Something's got to give
  • Where leading indicators are pressuring USD
  • Outlook on US equities and bonds
  • Perspective on the Fed's cut to its IOER
  • Collateral, lending conditions and tighter bank-credits
  • China, liquidity and growth
  • External headwinds remain growth impediment

 

 

 

 We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, as Erik and Simon will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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This week's panelists: Joe McMonigle, Chris Cook and Tracy Shuchart.

  • Joe McMonigle weighs in on OPEC/JMMC meeting outlook
  • Tracy Shuchart on OPEX and contract roll
  • Chris Cook on forward curves
  • Group discussion on Geopolitics (Game of drones / Saudi Tanker attacks, Iran Sanctions, Venezuela, China trade war)
  • Group discussion on bull/bear arguments and crude oil price outlook

Supporting Materials for Download

Tracy Shuchart Chartbook


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All-Star Julian Brigden: The Fed should cut rates NOW!

MI2 Partners founder Julian Brigden explains why the Fed is already late to cut interest rates, and the reason has nothing to do with a China-U.S. trade war.


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male silhouette.On today's episode of MacroVoices All Stars, our host Erik Townsend welcomes Danielle DiMartino Booth to talk about why she thinks Jay Powell is "the Grinch that stole liquidity"


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male silhouette.On today's episode of MacroVoices All Stars, our host Erik Townsend welcomes Luke Gromen to talk about the trade war between US and China


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male silhouette.Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Charlie McElligott to MacroVoices. Erik and Charlie discuss:

  • Impact of policy change on the yield curve
  • Drivers of volatility in rates
  • Fed taking the pro-inflationary stance
  • Futures driven equity unwind
  • CTA positioning on the SPX
  • SPX/SPY/QQQ Gamma/Delta extremes
  • Consolidated Gamma flip
  • VVIX and VIX positioning
  • Vol is either "too high" or S&P should be a lot lower
  • Buyside embrace economic pessimism

 

 

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, as Erik and Charlie will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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The inaugural episode of MacroVoices ENERGY WEEK featuring panelists Art Berman, Anas Alhajjii and Patricia Hemsworth.

  • Topic 1: Glut or crisis on the horizon? 
  • Topic 2: Crude Quality Matters.

Supporting Materials for Download

 Art Berman Chartbook

 Anas Alhajji Chartbook


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male silhouette.Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Juliette Declercq to MacroVoices. Erik and Juliette discuss:

  • Current status of inflation
  • The FED's inflation framework and its credibility
  • How the FED is failing to meet its inflation mandate
  • Lower rates and its effect on the yield curve and inflation expectations
  • Possibility of a financial crash and economic downturn
  • FED-induced inflation shock and its effect on bond yields and risk asset valuations
  • How the higher break in the US dollar will affect inflation expectations and the FED's cutting cycle
  • What is ahead - policy path and inflation outlook
  • China/US trade negotiations and its effect on global liquidity and global reflation

 

 

 

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, as Erik and Juliette will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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male silhouette.MacroVoices HOT TOPICS are a new offering in conjunction with MacroVoices Premium.

Hot Topics interviews are scheduled and produced in reacting to events that come up in markets, independent of our regular podcasts in which the guests are usually scheduled in advance. Today’s Hot Topic is fund manager Kyle Bass’ recent investor letter questioning Hong Kong’s ongoing relevance in the global financial system. Louis-Vincent Gave runs Gavekal, a Hong Kong-based institutional advisor. In today’s Hot Topic interview, Louis offers an “opposing editorial” view, strongly at odds with Kyle Bass’ views on Hong Kong.

Supporting Materials for Download

Louis-Vincent Gave Chartbook


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pippa malmgren Arthur Berman x125 PROFESSOR STEVE KEEN headshot
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We’re launching MacroVoices Premium with the first episode of the new MacroVoices All-Stars format!

This week’s All-Stars episode includes short-form interviews with:

  • Dr. Pippa Malmgren
  • Art Berman
  • Prof. Steve Keen
  • Julian Brigden
  • Luke Gromen
  • Danielle DiMartino Booth

Supporting Materials for Download

Art Berman Chartbook

male silhouette.Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Dr.Lacy Hunt to MacroVoices. Erik and Dr.Hunt discuss:

  • Outlook on US economy and the global economy
  • Synchronized global downturn and risks of a recession
  • Zero bound for policy rates and its risk
  • How long can the system sustain in a ZIRP environment
  • Debt induced weakness undermining growth rate
  • What's next, quantitative easing or debt monetization
  • Perspective on the FEDs ability to print money
  • Destabilization of the global monetary system
  • Where to position trades on the bond yield curve
  • Deflationary risks in this environment
  • Perspectives on Modern Monetary Theory

 

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male silhouette.Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Jeff Snider to MacroVoices. Erik and Jeff discuss:

  • The definition and the history of Eurodollar
  • Eurodollar as global reserve currency
  • Who really governs US dollar
  • Interbank borrowing, shadow money and Eurodollar transactions
  • Bretton Woods gold exchange system vs. Eurodollar system
  • How the global economy and the global financial system depend on Eurodollar system
  • The breakdown of Eurodollar system and the Great Global Monetary Crisis
  • The Eurodollar squeeze and its effect on the global system
  • Correlation between the Eurodollar squeeze and the US dollar index

 

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, as Erik and Jeff will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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PROFESSOR STEVE KEEN headshotErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Prof. Steve Keen to MacroVoices. Erik and Steve discuss:

  • Benefits of the U.S. losing its reserve currency status
  • International trade and deindustrialization of U.S.
  • U.S. Government budget and trade deficits
  • Possible fiscal crisis and the increase of US Treasury Yields
  • Devaluation of the dollar, imports and inflation shock
  • Risk of global currency to replace the US dollar as the world's reserve currency
  • Consequences of decrease in demand for US dollar
  • Runaway inflation and runaway trade deficit
  • Government spending, current inequality in income tax system
  • Risks and opportunities of MMT

 

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Howe HeadshotErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Neil Howe to MacroVoices. Erik and Neil discuss:

  • Insights from Neil on how the Fourth Turning is unfolding
  • Climax’s at the end of the Fourth Turning
  • Socialism, populism and extremism in politics
  • What is in store for the second half of the fourth turning
  • Current economic expansion is running out of workers
  • Effect of population composition
  • Late-cycle dynamics and real GDP growth trends
  • Correlations of term spreads and consumer confidence
  • Term spreads, credit cycles and volatility
  • Demographic trends for the long-term future

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, as Erik and Neil will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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Eric Peters HeadshotErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Eric Peteres to MacroVoices. Erik and Eric discuss:

  • Where are the equity markets heading next?
  • What are the biggest risks in the markets today?
  • Considerations on volatility on FX and interest rates.
  • Will the current trend in Treasury yields continue?
  • How will the next 10 years economically look?
  • Eric Peters perspective on MMT
  • Where are the China/US relations going?
  • Rise of populism around the world
  • Growth of U.S. Isolationism

SPECIAL POST GAME GUEST- Juliette Declercq - Financial Repression ThemeJulietteDeclercqHeadshot 125x

  • Perspective on the Fed pivot
  • What is the trade in this market environment

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David Rosenberg headshot 250Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome David Rosenberg back to MacroVoices. Erik and David discuss:

  • Thoughts on the Fed policy shift
  • Is the market still in a topping formation?
  • Are we in an earnings recession?
  • How low will yields go on Treasury Bonds?
  • Has the MMT crowd discovered something new?
  • Will we see helicopter money during the next downturn?
  • What can go wrong with the implementation of Modern Monetary Theory?
  • Looking back to the Ben Bernanke playbook from 2002
  • What is in store for the corporate bond market?

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, as Erik and David will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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The Big Picture Trading Post Game Chart Book

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Arthur Berman largeErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Art Berman back to MacroVoices. Erik and Art discuss:

  • Oil price collapse was more than a correction
  • World production surplus for 2019-2020
  • Asking if OPEC matters anymore?
  • U.S. Oil production
  • Trends in world liquid production
  • Perspective on the Brent and WTI curves
  • Why is Brent trading at a premium to WTI
  • Increasing short bets on oil
  • Future of U.S. E&P companies
  • Cost of drilling wells

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Art will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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Get embed code for this episode | For other embed code options click here | Download the audio MP3 File (73.53 MB) | Download the podcast transcript:   pdf Here (289 KB)

MACRO VOICES is presented for informational and entertainment purposes only. The information presented in MACRO VOICES should NOT be construed as investment advice. Always consult a licensed investment professional before making important investment decisions. The opinions expressed on MACRO VOICES are those of the participants. MACRO VOICES, its producers, and hosts Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna shall NOT be liable for losses resulting from investment decisions based on information or viewpoints presented on MACRO VOICES.

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