About Erik Townsend

hedge fund manager Erik Townsend

Erik Townsend is a retired software entrepreneur turned hedge fund manager. Throughout his career, Erik has capitalized on his ability to understand complex systems and anticipate paradigm shifts far in advance of the mainstream. Read More...

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male silhouette.Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Dr. Peter Warburton to MacroVoices. Erik and Dr. Warburton discuss:

  • “Blowing Up the Box” – what is the policy box?
  • Factors that affect long term outlook for inflation
  • History of inflation and policy framework
  • Inflation is necessary for successful financial repression
  • What is causing the “policy box” to be redesigned
  • History of inflation targeting and inflation controls
  • Driving factors for inflation expectations
  • Is the recent breakout in gold a sign of inflation?
  • Outlook on next QE
  • Is stagflation imminent?

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, as Erik and Dr. Warburton will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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MVEnergyWeek6This week’s panel: Art Berman, Chris Cook and Patricia Hemsworth

  • Pat Hemsworth on the AMLO administration’s plans for Pemex
  • Chris Cook on geopolitical risk and why the Iranian situation hasn’t blown up oil prices
  • Art Berman on why gas prices haven’t fallen more given recent developments
  • EIA’s 10.8 mm bbl draw, and the market DROPS on the news???
  • Iran situation and why it hasn’t resulted in higher oil prices
  • 2020 Pemex Hedge
  • Under-reporting of Permian Basin Fracking

 We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, as Erik and the panelists will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

Click here to register for access to supporting materials.


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All-Star Julian Brigden and Erik discuss:

  • If central banks are powerless to contain deflationary pressures, what are the implications for Pensions?
  • Is it possible to enter recession without first seeing a 2s10s curve inversion?
  • Longer-term outlook for bond yields, esp. U.S. 10yr

 


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All-Star Luke Gromen and Erik discuss:

  • Luke says the real reason for the coming rate cut is to enable US private sector financing of government deficits
  • Luke elaborates on his views about balance sheet capacity driving FF>IOER
  • Luke’s expectations for market moves when a debt ceiling increase is confirmed


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All-Star Danielle DiMartino-Booth and Erik discuss:

  • As Danielle explained in her prior interview, the U.S. economy isn’t immune to the global growth slowdown.
  • But what about Brent Johnson’s view that a global safety trade could keep the stock market party going a while longer?
  • Danielle’s take on the possibility of President Trump bypassing the Fed and intervening to weaken the dollar through executive action
  • Why we should be thinking about the possibility of #DoubleEasing – both QE and rate cuts at the same time


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male silhouette.Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Jim Rickards to MacroVoices. Erik and Jim discuss:

  • Private debt problem and its breaking point
  • Progression of growing debt
  • History of US government debt to GDP ratio
  • History of the US treasury market
  • Cost of low growth and high debt
  • Drivers of inflationconfidence not money supply
  • Why Modern Monetary Theory is flawed
  • Why the current International Monetary System is unstable
  • Jim’s new boo“Aftermath: Seven Secrets of Wealth Preservation in the Coming Chaos”

 



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MVEnergyWeek6This week’s panel: Anas Alhajji, Joe McMonigle and Patricia Hemsworth

  • Pat Hemsworth on volatility in finished product markets and impacts of last week's hurricane
  • Dr. Anas Alhajji on IEA and other organizations' bearish price forecasts for 2020
  • Joe McMonigle's behind-the-scenes insights after attending the OPEC meeting in Vienna
  • Iran policy news and the abrupt price drop this week
  • Venezuela and whether Chevron's general license will be extended
  • Canadian crude differentials to WTI - what's causing them and how long will it last?

 

 

 

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SteveKeenArticle

All-Star Prof. Steve Keen and Erik discuss:

  • How the field of economics lost its way and lost touch with how the real world actually works
  • Several examples of clear disconnects between widely accepted economic theory and real-world actuality
  • Prof. Steve’s book recommendations for those who want an interpretation of Economics that’s a little closer to reality than the mainstream


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JeffSnider AllStars

All-Star Jeff Snider and Erik discuss: 

  • Review of Fed Funds rate and Interest on Excess Reserves (IOER) – what do they mean and why are they important
  • The theorydescribing how the Fed believed that IOER would effectively cap the Fed Funds rate within their target range
  • Hard data shows the theory doesn’t match actual reality
  • Jeff’s explanation of what’s really going on, and why a shortage of USD liquidity in the global offshore Eurodollar market is what’s really driving the observed behavior of Fed Funds and IOER

 All-Stars Jeff Snider Chartbook July 15 2019 


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IICFund manager Alex Gurevich is in the hot seat this month, pitching his “perfect trade” from 2014 long bonds and short the Euro. Alex explains why he believes this was truly a ‘perfect’ can’t lose trade, then we translate to current markets 

  • Why Alex believes there was no sane reason with any view to have been short the U.S. 10yr Treasury in 2014
  • The perfect trade: Long bonds and short the Euro, and why it worked in 2014
  • Julian and Juliette’s reactions to the trade itself and to the process question of whether ‘perfect trades’ really exist
  • Translating this to today’s markets, why Julian and Alex no longer agree completely on bond market outlook
  • Juliette teases us with a preview of a trade she got WRONG, which we’ll feature in Episode #3

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this episode, as Erik and the panelists will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

Click here to register for access to supporting materials.


Get embed code for this episode. | For other embed code options click here. | Download the audio MP3 File (36.57 MB) .

MACRO VOICES is presented for informational and entertainment purposes only. The information presented in MACRO VOICES should NOT be construed as investment advice. Always consult a licensed investment professional before making important investment decisions. The opinions expressed on MACRO VOICES are those of the participants. MACRO VOICES, its producers, and hosts Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna shall NOT be liable for losses resulting from investment decisions based on information or viewpoints presented on MACRO VOICES.

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