About Erik Townsend

hedge fund manager Erik Townsend

Erik Townsend is a retired software entrepreneur turned hedge fund manager. Throughout his career, Erik has capitalized on his ability to understand complex systems and anticipate paradigm shifts far in advance of the mainstream. Read More...

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Josh Crumb to MacroVoices. Erik and Josh discuss:

  • Current opportunities in gold market
  • What is the range of possible prices for gold market
  • Gold-Oil ratio: will the gold prices get brought down with oil?
  • Important economic signals come from where people are hedging
  • Is oil price constraining the gold price despite recent central bank policy actions
  • What are the physical dislocations in the gold market due to COVID-19 impact?
  • Is there a disconnect forming between physical and paper price of gold?
  • Outlook on digital currency 
  • Possibilities of global digital reserve currency 

Download the podcast transcript: [Click Here]

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this episode, as Erik and Patrick will refer to it throughout postgame. If you are already registered at MacroVoices.com, just login and the download link will appear here once you're logged in. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

Click here to register or login for access to supporting materials.

 

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All-Star Louis-Vinecnt Gave and Erik discuss:

  • Why Asia and Europe had such profoundly different outcomes from the COVID19 Pandemic
  • Three crisis for the price of one: Why markets are currently experiencing three separate crises at once
  • Coming challenges for Europe

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Simon White to MacroVoices. Erik and Simon discuss:

  • This week’s unlimited QE by the FED and its implications
  • Comparison of exogenous shocks vs. recession
  • Are stocks and bonds both starting to sell off?
  • Are treasuries moving up due to the FED buying up bonds?
  • U.S. government’s reaction COVID-19 crisis and how will it impact asset markets

 

 

Download the podcast transcript: [Click Here]

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this episode, as Erik and Patrick will refer to it throughout postgame. If you are already registered at MacroVoices.com, just login and the download link will appear here once you're logged in. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

Click here to register for access to supporting materials.

 

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This episode of Hot Topic features...

  • Boots on the ground updates from Ground Zero: Northern Italy and Florida Healthcare preparedness updates
  • All the MDs agree Erik’s symptoms are NOT COVID19, yet dozens of listeners from all over the world wrote in with identical symptoms. How does Dr. Steve reconcile this conundrum?
  • What will it take to avoid a complete shutdown of the global economy?

Supporting Materials for Download

MUST READ ARTICLE: The Hammer and the Dance 

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All-Star Luke Gromen and Erik discuss:

  • The world is massively short USD and the only way out of this crisis is for the Fed to buy trillions of dollars of debt. Otherwise asset markets will crash.
  • How much is enough? Luke says in theory if the economy shuts down completely, the Fed would have to buy “all” the outstanding debt. That’s $47tn!
  • How is Luke positioned for what’s on the horizon?

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Jim Bianco to MacroVoices. Erik and Jim discuss:

  • Update on the COVID-19 
  • The impact of the virus on the economy and markets
  • Systemic risks to markets and impact on dealers
  • Has the FED put has expired?
  • Should the markets be shutdown, and what is the alternative?
  • Breaking of the stock vs. bond correlation 
  • Credit risks and the future impact on high yields 

Download the podcast transcript: [Click Here]

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this episode, as Erik and Patrick will refer to it throughout postgame. If you are already registered at MacroVoices.com, just login and the download link will appear here once you're logged in. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

 

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SPECIAL POST GAME GUEST- Kevin Muir

The MacroTourist 

Kevin Muir Macro Tourist: Governments Are Panicking 

Click here to register for access to supporting materials.

 

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This episode of Hot Topic features...

  • BLOCKBUSTER: The Imperial College Report—what it says and why it’s making such an impact on policymakers
  • Lessons from Hubei Province: Why shouldn’t we expect a similar outcome in the USA?
  • Making it Personal: Erik’s own experience with “probably having COVID19”

Supporting Materials for Download

Imperial College Report on COVID-19 Pandemic 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

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All-Star Jeff Snider and Erik discuss:

  • Despite modern complexities in finance and money, the basic issue is old fashioned currency elasticity. Central banks are not suited for it, and the results are obvious now.
  • September's repo event said that money dealers when faced with irregularities would sit on the sidelines regardless of Fed action. They are definitely sitting on the sidelines.
  • Market liquidations come down to repo market - on the collateral side.
  • Stocks, rates, credit, gold, crude; all these asset classes joined by the same factor.
  • QE's are coming not because they work but because that's what central banks do. Bureaucracies care more for their routines than the results.  

Supporting Materials for Download

Jeff Snider Chartbook: Elasticity - But What is the Currency 

                                                                 Jeff Snider: Since 2008 major turning points in Gold have been punctuated by Eurodollar anomalies

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This episode of Hot Topic features...

  • Before, After, and Inbetween: Lenore’s experience watching a society go from complete denial to new normal in 72 hours
  • Seeing it Coming: As the author of an article PREDICTING healthcare facilities being overwhelmed, how did Lenore’s experience in Italy compare to her predictions?
  • Lenore’s outlook for and advice to Americans, Brits, and others around the world: What’s coming and what you can expect it to be like
  • Economic impacts on stock indices, commodities, and other markets

Supporting Materials for Download

Coronavirus: Is It No Major Worry Or A Pandemic? Yes 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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This episode of Hot Topic features Tracy Shuchart. Erik and Tracy discuss:

  • The COVID19 Crisis: Recap on what Erik sees on the horizon (see also full podcast yesterday)
  • What COVID19 demand destruction means for energy markets
  • OPEC+ and Russia: What happened? Are they bluffing or is this really a price war?
  • What does it all mean for U.S. Shale, and is a shale industry bail-out politically tenable in an election year?

 

 

 

 

 

 

MACRO VOICES is presented for informational and entertainment purposes only. The information presented in MACRO VOICES should NOT be construed as investment advice. Always consult a licensed investment professional before making important investment decisions. The opinions expressed on MACRO VOICES are those of the participants. MACRO VOICES, its producers, and hosts Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna shall NOT be liable for losses resulting from investment decisions based on information or viewpoints presented on MACRO VOICES.

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