About Erik Townsend

hedge fund manager Erik Townsend

Erik Townsend is a retired software entrepreneur turned hedge fund manager. Throughout his career, Erik has capitalized on his ability to understand complex systems and anticipate paradigm shifts far in advance of the mainstream. Read More...

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Welcome to Macro Voices

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Axel Merk to MacroVoices. Erik and Axel discuss:

  • COVID-19 driving bonds to new all-time highs 
  • What’s contributing to US Dollar breakdown?
  • Why are treasury yields crashing and will it continue?
  • What is the threshold for zero-bound treasury yield?
  • Is it time to short high-yield and what are its risks?
  • Perspectives on possible bail-out for shale oil producers
  • Impacts of the COVID-19 crisis on the upcoming presidential elections
  • Outlook on gold and gold mining shares
  • FED’s emergency cut – what’s next? 

Download the podcast transcript: [Click Here]

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this episode, as Erik and Patrick will refer to it throughout postgame. If you are already registered at MacroVoices.com, just login and the download link will appear here once you're logged in. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

Click here to register for access to supporting materials.

 

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All-Star Juliette and Erik discuss:

  • Juliette’s analysis of market risks created by the COVID-19 pandemic
  • Understanding why serious complication rate is (economically) more important than case fatality rate or mortality rate
  • Juliette’s guidance on translating these views to actionable trading strategies

 

Supporting Materials for Download

A real macroeconomic plague - MARCH 2020 

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Jesse Felder to MacroVoices. Erik and Jesse discuss:

  • Is COVID-19 the catalyst that changed the direction in the market?
  • FED stimulus – how long will this bounce last?
  • How much downside is expected in order to take excess buying out of the market
  • Upside in the market caused by central bank response – what happens next?
  • Will inflation return in the near future and what are its systemic risks
  • Asset allocation strategy to accommodate the return of inflation
  • Current buying opportunities in value investing 

Download the podcast transcript: [Click Here]

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this episode, as Erik and Patrick will refer to it throughout postgame. If you are already registered at MacroVoices.com, just login and the download link will appear here once you're logged in. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

Click here to register for access to supporting materials.

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All-Star Brent Johnson and Erik discuss:

  • Dollar update: Still in a long-term uptrend despite recent weakness
  • Why Brent would buy stocks hand over fist if we see another 10% sell-off from here
  • Why gold has been weak despite bullish fundamentals, and outlook for precious metals

Supporting Materials for Download

Brent Johnson Chartbook - MacroVoices All-Stars 03 04 2020

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This episode of Hot Topic features...

  • Rebroadcast of Jan 30 interview with Dr. Chris Martenson (covered all major aspects of COVID19 pandemic)
  • New developments in R0, CFR, community testing
  • Analysis of why markets and the general public have still yet to fully come to terms with the extent of the pandemic

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Francesco Filia to MacroVoices. Erik and Francesco discuss:

  • 50-Year swap rate in negative territory
  • Why the US treasury bond is no longer an investment and its systemic implications
  • The upcoming daily liquidity crisis and it means for the market
  • Complexity-based systemic risk alerts and tools to manage risks
  • How to translate these concepts into actionable strategies
  • Why is flash-crash is likely to happen
  • Perspectives on economic impacts of COVID-19

Download the podcast transcript: [Click Here]

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this episode, as Erik and Francesco will refer to it throughout the interview. If you are already registered at MacroVoices.com, just login and the download link will appear here once you're logged in. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

Click here to register for access to supporting materials.

 

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All-Star Jeff Snider and Erik discuss:

  • Why Jeff’s indicators showed a global slowdown before the Coronavirus story emerged in the news
  • Dollar-positive effects of the global Eurodollar system are in play, independent of the virus story
  • Why dollar strength is a bad thing, not a good thing, and what to expect from here

Supporting Materials for Download

Jeff Snider MacroVoices 2020 02 26

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This episode of Hot Topic features panelists Jim Bianco, Mike Shedlock, Dr. Ben Hunt & Dr. Chris Martenson. Erik and the panelists discuss:

  • Why a super-spreader driven silent global contagion may have alreadyoccurred
  • Why draconian lockdown measures may be the only effective remedies against #COVID19’s high R0
  • Contrasting views on the range of possible economic and market outcomes from our expert guest panel

 

Supporting Materials for Download

Jim Bianco Slides 02 24 2020 

Mike Shedlock Slides 02 24 2020 

 

 

 

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Ralph Delguidice to MacroVoices. Erik and Ralph discuss:

  • What are some knock-on implications of the US Treasury bond?
  • Difference between Government money market funds vs. Prime money market funds
  • Why treasury and investment grade bond demand flows will remain solid
  • Declining German bunds in circulation
  • The growing USD funding gap
  • What are LCRs and why are they falling?
  • The US treasury demand impact of Dodd Frank
  • Knock-on implications as treasuries no longer being suitable as investments
  • What are the implications of systemic risks?

Download the podcast transcript: [Click Here]

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this episode, as Erik and Ralph will refer to it throughout the interview. If you are already registered at MacroVoices.com, just login and the download link will appear here once you're logged in. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

Click here to register for access to supporting materials.

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Chris Cole to MacroVoices. Erik and Chris discuss:

  • “The Allegory of the Hawk and Serpent”
  • Is 60/40 portfolio allocation strategy really the proven long term solution?
  • The law of cosmic duality in investing
  • Dragon portfolio – how can a portfolio be protected with a consistent return in any market cycle
  • What is the role of long-vol and commodity trends following have in dragon portfolio
  • Tail risk hedging strategy, gamma hedging activity and short-vol trades

Download the podcast transcript: [Click Here]

We strongly recommend that you download the document that accompanies this episode, as Erik and Chris will refer to it throughout this interview. If you are already registered at MacroVoices.com, just login and the download link will appear here once you're logged in. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

 

 

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SPECIAL POST GAME GUEST- Emil Kalinowski

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MACRO VOICES is presented for informational and entertainment purposes only. The information presented in MACRO VOICES should NOT be construed as investment advice. Always consult a licensed investment professional before making important investment decisions. The opinions expressed on MACRO VOICES are those of the participants. MACRO VOICES, its producers, and hosts Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna shall NOT be liable for losses resulting from investment decisions based on information or viewpoints presented on MACRO VOICES.

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