About Erik Townsend

hedge fund manager Erik Townsend

Erik Townsend is a retired software entrepreneur turned hedge fund manager. Throughout his career, Erik has capitalized on his ability to understand complex systems and anticipate paradigm shifts far in advance of the mainstream. Read More...

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Welcome to Macro Voices

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All-Star Julian Brigden and Erik discuss:

  • Julian weighs in on Saudi oil infrastructure attacks and the rise of geopolitical risk generally
  • Chinese monetary policy: Is it as important now as it was in 2016?
  • Understanding why the Fed is discouraging investors from thinking of Friday’s treasury buying announcement as “QE”

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All-Star Luke Gromen and Erik discuss:

  • Why the narrative just failed and what it means
  • Translating narrative failure to portfolio positioning: Who wins and who loses?
  • Reconciling Luke’s narrative failure thesis with the treasury bid evidenced by low yields

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All-Star Louis-Vincent Gave and Erik discuss:

  • Global markets have been rangebound for well over a year
  • Equity and Gold outlooks
  • Hong Kong update

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Tian Yang to MacroVoices. Erik and Tian discuss:

  • Economic and liquidity leading indicators
  • Growth slowdown and risks of a recession
  • US/China trade war and its implications on the markets
  • Translating economic signals into market decisions
  • Impacts of Europe/ECB on global market system
  • Tail hedges and the risks in the market
  • Perspectives on global dollar shortage and the repo market
  • Possibilities of QE in Q4
  • Recent divergence in value and growth
  • Outlook on emerging markets

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this episode, as Erik and Tian will refer to it throughout the interview. If you are already registered at MacroVoices.com, just login and the download link will appear here once you're logged in. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

Download the podcast transcript: [Click Here]

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SPECIAL POST GAME GUEST- Amir Adnani

Click here to register for access to supporting materials.

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All-Star Danielle DiMartino-Booth and Erik discuss:

  • Making sense of a 50-yr low in unemployment, and putting it in perspective
  • Why the numbers aren’t as clear as the headline sounds
  • Why a disproportionate number of jobs are going to 55+ baby-boomers going back to work

Supporting Materials for Download

The Daily Feather - A Fork in the Labour Dam

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All-Star Jeff Snider and Erik discuss:

  • It’s true that foreigners have stopped buying treasuries in many cases
  • But price sends a clear signal – the full treasury issuance is being snatched up
  • Bid-to-cover ratios are a reflection of primary market activity only; most of the action is in the secondary market

Supporting Materials for Download

Too Many Treasuries? Low Treasury Yields Provoke Emotion

All-Star Juliette Declercq and Erik discuss:

  • Deteriorating data paint a clear picture
  • Still awaiting latest PMIs, but the available data are pretty clear
  • U.S. “Cleanest Dirty Shirt” phenomenon – can it continue or is the U.S. the proverbial last shoe that’s about to drop?

male silhouette.Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Eric Peters to MacroVoices. Erik and Eric discuss:

  • Has monetary policy lost its effectiveness
  • Shift in dominance from monetary policy to fiscal policy
  • Political drivers of changes in monetary policy
  • Generational and political gap and its impact on the economy
  • Outlook on equity market
  • Perspectives on the current bond market
  • Outlook on precious metals

Download the podcast transcript: [Click Here]

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this episode, as Erik and Patrick will refer to it throughout postgame. If you are already registered at MacroVoices.com, just login and the download link will appear here once you're logged in. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

Click here to register for access to supporting materials.

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All-Star Luke Gromen and Erik discuss:

  • Barton Biggs on how the Nomura Family’s ability to recognize “Narrative Failure” made Nomura Japan’s #1 financial firm
  • Why we’re experiencing our own “Narrative Failure” today, and what specifically is failing
  • Portfolio positioning for the narrative failure and beyond
  • Outlook for the coming merger of monetary and fiscal narratives, and how that might unfold

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All-Star Brent Johnson and Erik discuss:

  • Brent disagrees with those who predict QE3 in the U.S., but says even if it does happen, the direction reversal for the USD would only be temporary
  • Brent expects a big pull-back in gold—back to the 1350-1377 breakout zone, and he explains why and what will drive it
  • Why Brent thinks the SPX is headed higher, with or without QE4
  • Brent’s take on the repo crisis and dollar liquidity generally

MACRO VOICES is presented for informational and entertainment purposes only. The information presented in MACRO VOICES should NOT be construed as investment advice. Always consult a licensed investment professional before making important investment decisions. The opinions expressed on MACRO VOICES are those of the participants. MACRO VOICES, its producers, and hosts Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna shall NOT be liable for losses resulting from investment decisions based on information or viewpoints presented on MACRO VOICES.

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