Macro Voices All-Stars

All-Star Prof. Steve Keen and Erik discuss:

• Steve’s 2016 prediction that the Fed would eventually be forced to return to QE and why current events prove it true
• Costs and benefits of QE in the real world
• Private debt and the inflated corporate bond market as a result of QE translates to higher risk for the next financial crisis

Supporting Materials for Download

Tilting At Windmills: The Faustian Folly Of Quantitative Easing 

All-Star Louis-Vincent Gave and Erik discuss:

• Update on latest status from Hong Kong
• The bigger picture: Civil unrest around the globe, what’s driving it, what we should expect next
• The return of Inflation: Louis’ market outlook

All-Star Jeff Snider and Erik discuss:

• Markets grinding to new all-time highs on relief that the recession scare is now over and forgotten.
• History teaches us it’s not over, but widespread complacency that it is typifies this point in the cycle
• Everyone is assuming that a trade deal will “fix everything”. Jeff says that belief is misplaced as well.

Supporting Materials for Download

Is It Over? Or just Intermission of a Two Act "Dollar" Play - Jeff Snider 

All-Star Luke Gromen and Erik discuss:

• Update on monetary policy: Monetization by any other time is ok, but call it what it is and you’re a crackpot conspiracy theorist!
• Market outlook for non-monetization: Gold bull run could pause a little longer, but stocks already heading higher
• What if the ‘risk off event everyone’s been waiting for’ already happened in the form of the Repo crisis?

All-Star Juliette Declercq and Erik discuss:

• Monetary policy outlook
• Are central banks using up all their ammunition, leaving themselves vulnerable to the next crisis?
• Translating Juliette’s macro outlook to actionable trading strategies

All-Star Dr. Pippa Malmgren and Erik discuss:

• Civil unrest around the globe: What’s driving it and what does it mean?
• How technology will contribute to both the problem and its solution
• Update on President Trump’s post-White House aspirations for a news media empire
• Why Pippa remains optimistic on global growth and stock prices

All-Star Brent Johnson and Erik discuss:

• Why Brent was able to see new highs coming for stocks, despite his own reservations about the economy
• Why Brent expects Christine Lagarde to make a big splash when she takes office as the new ECB chief
• Gold market update, including why Brent still thinks a deeper correction is coming before Gold moves to new all time highs

All-Star Prof. Steve Keen and Erik discuss:

• Changing of t Guard: Populism on the rise globally and what it means
• Brexit: Will it happen and what does it mean for markets?

All-Star Jeff Snider and Erik discuss:

• Why “base money” really isn’t base money
• Fed announcements in perspective
• What’s really missing: The dealers who used to supply global dollar liquidity

Supporting Materials for Download

What Is Money? Misplaced Focus on Bank Reserves & the Fed 

All-Star Julian Brigden and Erik discuss:

• Julian weighs in on Saudi oil infrastructure attacks and the rise of geopolitical risk generally
• Chinese monetary policy: Is it as important now as it was in 2016?
• Understanding why the Fed is discouraging investors from thinking of Friday’s treasury buying announcement as “QE”

All-Star Luke Gromen and Erik discuss:

• Why the narrative just failed and what it means
• Translating narrative failure to portfolio positioning: Who wins and who loses?
• Reconciling Luke’s narrative failure thesis with the treasury bid evidenced by low yields

All-Star Louis-Vincent Gave and Erik discuss:

• Global markets have been rangebound for well over a year
• Equity and Gold outlooks
• Hong Kong update

All-Star Danielle DiMartino-Booth and Erik discuss:

• Making sense of a 50-yr low in unemployment, and putting it in perspective
• Why the numbers aren’t as clear as the headline sounds
• Why a disproportionate number of jobs are going to 55+ baby-boomers going back to work

Supporting Materials for Download

The Daily Feather - A Fork in the Labour Dam

All-Star Jeff Snider and Erik discuss:

• It’s true that foreigners have stopped buying treasuries in many cases
• But price sends a clear signal – the full treasury issuance is being snatched up
• Bid-to-cover ratios are a reflection of primary market activity only; most of the action is in the secondary market

Supporting Materials for Download

Too Many Treasuries? Low Treasury Yields Provoke Emotion

All-Star Juliette Declercq and Erik discuss:

• Deteriorating data paint a clear picture
• Still awaiting latest PMIs, but the available data are pretty clear
• U.S. “Cleanest Dirty Shirt” phenomenon – can it continue or is the U.S. the proverbial last shoe that’s about to drop?

All-Star Luke Gromen and Erik discuss:

• Barton Biggs on how the Nomura Family’s ability to recognize “Narrative Failure” made Nomura Japan’s #1 financial firm
• Why we’re experiencing our own “Narrative Failure” today, and what specifically is failing
• Portfolio positioning for the narrative failure and beyond
• Outlook for the coming merger of monetary and fiscal narratives, and how that might unfold

All-Star Brent Johnson and Erik discuss:

• Brent disagrees with those who predict QE3 in the U.S., but says even if it does happen, the direction reversal for the USD would only be temporary
• Brent expects a big pull-back in gold—back to the 1350-1377 breakout zone, and he explains why and what will drive it
• Why Brent thinks the SPX is headed higher, with or without QE4
• Brent’s take on the repo crisis and dollar liquidity generally

All-Star Juliette Declercq and Erik discuss:

• Drivers of the present liquidity crisis
• Why Juliette predicts that QE4 is coming in Q4, and why she thinks it’s needed
• Why Juliette thinks the stock market could move much higher when this occurs

All-Star Prof. Steve Keen and Erik discuss:

• Big picture: What happened and why it’s important
• Comparing the writings of Nathan Tankus, Zoltan Poszar and George Seglin as they relate to this event
• Why Steve doesn’t think the fiat sky is falling, as some in the crypto community have suggested

All-Star Danielle DiMartino Booth and Erik discuss:

• Repo market mayhem and the Fed’s losing touch with markets
• Danielle’s reactions to Jeff Snider’s insights on the repo market blow-up
• Watch the MOVE index, not the stock market, for signs of distress

Supporting Materials for Download

The Daily Feather - Noise Silencing Policy 

The Daily Feather - Deadpool of Labor  (from All Stars Episode #55 September 11th 2019)