macroeconomics

  • Josh Steiner: Global Housing Market Analysis

    Erik Townsend welcomes Josh Steiner to MacroVoices. Erik and Josh discuss the macro drivers of the Canadian and Australian real estate markets. They look at Canada’s minsky moment, the new government policies and the impact on the Canadian banks. They move on to discuss the Australian one-cylinder economy, perspectives on the Australian construction boom and the high levels of home equity withdrawal. They further discuss the U.S. real estate markets and why there is still room to run.

  • Julian Brigden: Inflation, U.S. Dollar, Peak Central Bank Omnipotence, Further PM Weakness, and More

    Erik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Julian Brigden to MacroVoices. Erik and Julian discuss waxing and waning of U.S. Dollar cycles driving global crises, potentially materially higher headline inflation and wage numbers in 2017, peak central bank omnipotence, potential for sub-$1,000 and sub-$14 gold and silver prices, impact of U.S. Dollar repatriation on Eurodollar funding, and much more.

  • Julian Brigden: Secular Bond Bear Doesn’t Preclude Significant Rallies

    Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Julian Brigden back to the show. Erik and Julian discuss what is driving the bond market, demographics and the global excesses in the equity markets. They ask is the U.S. housing markets overpriced, where is the next trade in treasuries and is the stock market due for a big bubble bounce? They finally touch on inflation considerations in 2019 and what is the next move for the Fed?

  • Julian Brigden: Stock collapse under own weight or Fed/yields do it for them

    Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Julian Brigden to MacroVoices. Erik and Julian discuss what is on the horizon for inflation and is there a risk of runaway inflation? They look at today’s market and what comes next for equities. They discuss if the market highs in already and if bonds and stocks sell off, where does the money go? They look at the US dollar, the correlation breakdown between the USD and US bonds and where to focus the bond short.

  • Julian Brigden: The “Trump Gap”, the Dollar and Bonds

    Erik Townsend welcomes Julian Brigden back to MacroVoices. Erik and Julian discuss the U.S. Dollars impact on the US shale bubble, the peak acceleration in ISM manufacturing and the risk that headline inflation is peaking. They further discuss if the Fed tightening is going to start to impact data. Julian also points out that the bond shorting opportunity is over and the subsequent risks to the reflationary trades. Also discussed are the wage trends in the U.S., perspectives on European growth and inflation and the relative pricing between U.S. and European bunds.

  • Julian Brigden: Where we stand in the US Dollar Story

     

    julian brigden headshotErik Townsend welcomes Julian Brigden to MacroVoices. Erik and Julian discuss:

    • The difference between the DXY and the trade weighted broad Dollar index
    • The effect of emerging market fluctuations on the broad Dollar
    • Dollar pause or Dollar reversal?
    • The return of cyclical inflation in the US
    • Chinese capital outflows and the effect on real estate markets
    • How the Dollar story will affect precious metals
    • Emerging market equites
    • A lack of real cooperation between central banks
    • Global sovereign debt markets and what they are signaling about inflation
    • How a perfect storm of Dollar strength and a return of inflation will take away the central bank "put"
    • ...and bunches upon bunches more...

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  • Julian Brigden: Where we stand in the US Dollar Story

    Erik Townsend and Julian Brigden of Macro Intelligence 2 Partners discuss the Dollar from a multitude of angles, as well as emerging markets, precious metals, equities and global bond markets.

  • Juliette Declercq: “Dovish Pivot” is not a game-changer yet

    Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Juliette Declercq back to MacroVoices. Erik and Juliette discuss the impact of trade war on the global economy. They then discuss the PBOC, the Chinese monetary policy and the broader global growth outlook. They move on to touch on the U.S. Dollar, the U.S. monetary policy outlook and ask if the Powell dovish pivot a game changer?

  • Juliette Declercq: 2018 Macro Outlook

    Erik Townsend welcomes Juliette Declercq to MacroVoices. Erik and Juliette discuss the US and Chinese economy, inflation and the cautious outlook on equities for 2018. They further discuss interest rates, bond and the potential of a yield curve inversion. Finally, they discuss the Fed and her bearish outlook for the US dollar.

  • Juliette Declercq: A Red string of fate ties U.S. to China

    Erik Townsend welcomes Juliette Declercq to MacroVoices. Erik and Juliette discuss the US Dollar, 10-year UST and the FOMC. They reflect on Juliette’s perspectives on the red string of fate ties U.S. to China, future FOMC policy and the current business cycle. They further discuss where is the ISM heading next, the impact on Trump’s tax and infrastructure spending and the potential surprises for the upcoming French election.

  • Juliette Declercq: Questioning the Fed’s ability to service its inflation mandate

    Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Juliette Declercq to MacroVoices. Erik and Juliette discuss the current status of inflation, the FED’s failure to meet its inflation mandate, and what is ahead for policy path and inflation outlook.

  • Juliette Declercq: The bear argument for the USD

    Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Juliette Declercq back to MacroVoices. Erik and Juliette discuss the U.S. Dollar, rate differentials and ask if there has been a regime shift. They further discuss how does the economic data tie back into bearish dollar narrative and what are the tactical considerations on a dollar short. They further touch on how traders can position themselves on the interim.

  • Keith Dicker: The next major financial crisis will happen in the Bond market

    Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Keith Dicker back to MacroVoices. Erik and Keith discuss the government bond bubble, artificially suppressed interest rates and rethinking bonds for portfolio allocations. They discuss what impact that a bond market route could have on equities and if the bond bear market has started. They conclude with their outlook on equities and gold.

  • Keith McCullough: Bond Yields May Have Peaked

    Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Keith McCullough to MacroVoices. Erik and Keith discuss how the investment landscape has evolved, why deflationary pressures are on the horizon. They further discuss the marginal rates of change in growth and inflation, U.S. real GDP and CPI forecasts, the global economic landscape and the key macro themes into the year end.

  • Keith McCullough: Bullish Real Growth

    Erik Townsend welcomes back Keith McCullough to MacroVoices. Erik and Keith discuss the bull narrative on equities and why valuations are not a catalyst. They further go into the trends in growth and inflation, and where we are in the economic cycle. They look at growth acceleration, earnings and the valuations on technology stocks.

  • Lacy Hunt: The secular bond bull market is not over!

    Erik Townsend welcomes Dr. Lacy Hunt to MacroVoices. Erik and Lacy discuss the important question as to if the secular lows are in for U.S. interest rates. The further discuss the work of Minsky and Kindelberger and ask the important question as if the world is turning Japanese? The further explore the impact of demographics, negative interest rates and the Fed hiking into deteriorating economy.

  • Lance Roberts: Record margin debt threatens fed-fueled bull market

    Erik Townsend welcomes Lance Roberts to MacroVoices. Erik and Lance discuss the liquidity driven markets and the Fed balance sheet driving asset prices. They further discuss the margin debt vs. the net credit balance and as a % of real GDP. The further discuss the total system leverage, the economic deficit and peaks in real profit margins.

  • Louis-Vincent Gave: Breakdown in Historical Norms between Emerging Markets and USTs

    Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Louis-Vincent Gave to MacroVoices. Erik and Louis discuss drivers in emerging markets route, the global equity markets and how long the divergence can last between US and global equity markets. The further discuss the impact on U.S. treasuries, global de-dollarization and the dissolution of Chimerica. They look at NAFTA and the changing of the supply chain as well as the outlook for gold and precious metals.

  • Louis-Vincent Gave: Translating 2016 Events to 2017 Strategies

    Erik Townsend welcomes Louis-Vincent Gave to MacroVoices. Erik and Louis discuss the China reflation trade and asking when Chinese growth will roll over? They further discuss Brexit and the future of the European Union, Philippines and Rodrigo Duterte and the rise of the Chinese empire. It is closed off with the investment themes and risks for 2017.

  • Luke Gromen: Secular Dollar Bear goes Tactically Dollar Bullish

    Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome back Luke Gromen to MacroVoices. Erik and Luke discuss the outlook on the U.S. dollar, funding the U.S. deficits and the U.S. “Impossible Trilemma”. They further discuss Luke’s perspective of the Fed taking the “Shoot the Hostage” stance on the markets and particularly the influence on the emerging markets. They discuss China accelerating global de-dollarization and the U.S. weaponizing the USD and oil against Russia and Iran.

MACRO VOICES is presented for informational and entertainment purposes only. The information presented in MACRO VOICES should NOT be construed as investment advice. Always consult a licensed investment professional before making important investment decisions. The opinions expressed on MACRO VOICES are those of the participants. MACRO VOICES, its producers, and hosts Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna shall NOT be liable for losses resulting from investment decisions based on information or viewpoints presented on MACRO VOICES.

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