macroeconomics

  • Art Berman: Outlook for Oil for 2017

    Erik Townsend welcomes back Art Berman to MacroVoices. Erik and Art discuss the current catalyst for the decline in oil – the lack of confidence in OPEC. The discuss the record levels of oil inventories, the comparative inventories to past years, the world production surplus, the global liquids consumption growth, the OECD incremental liquids Inventory and the EIA U.S. crude oil forecast.

  • Art Berman: Shale Gas Magical Thinking And The Reality of Low Gas Prices

  • Art Berman: The market has de-valued the oil price yield curve

    Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Art Berman back to MacroVoices. Erik and Art discuss comparative inventory and inventory correlation to price on oil. They further look at price cycles, the oil-price yield curve and the impact of U.S. exporting oil. They further discuss why backwardation is collapsing on WTI, sensitivities to supply concerns and the discrepancies between IEA and OPEC forecasts.

  • Art Berman: The world is still over-supplied with oil

    Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Art Berman back to MacroVoices. Erik and Art ask the question was the oil price collapse more than just a correction? The look at world production surplus for 2019-2020, U.S. oil production and ask if OPEC matters anymore. The further look at trends in world liquid production, perspectives on the Brent and WTI curves and ask why is Brent trading at a premium to WTI.

  • Axel Merk: ECB/Fed/BOJ Policy and the Implications for Equities, Gold, the USD and More

    2014 02 13 Axel headshotErik Townsend welcomes Axel Merk to MacroVoices. Erik and Axel discuss:

    • The ECB, Fed, and BOJ statements and how policies are shifting
    • The upward trajectory of the Euro following a confusing ECB statement
    • The key differences between central banking in the US, and the Eurozone
    • TLTRO2: "a funding for lending scheme" - how does it work, what does it mean?
    • A potential bottoming in European interest rates
    • Will a Fed rate hike mean a stronger dollar, or have markets already priced this in?
    • The Fed members, structure, focus and process
    • Coming headwinds for asset prices as the Fed unwinds an unprecedented easing cycle
    • The counterproductivity of negative interest rates and extraordinary central bank policy
    • The Dollar rally - how did we get here and is the rally over?
    • Gold and other "safe havens" - where can investors hide in this challenging environment?

     

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  • Axel Merk: ECB/Fed/BOJ Policy and the Implications for Equities, Gold, the USD and More

    Erik welcomes Axel Merk and the two of them discuss recent central bank statements and how we can expect them to affect financial markets.

  • Axel Merk: Trump reflation trade is dead. Equity market hasn’t noticed yet.

    Erik Townsend welcomes back Axel Merk to MacroVoices. Erik and Axel discuss Europe, ECB policy, UK elections and the future of the European union. They further debate the Trump reflation trade, the U.S. dollar and fiscal/monetary policy. Looking around the globe, the look at the Chinese Yuan devaluation, Japan and the outlook on gold.

  • Barry Ritholtz: Quantitative tightening is not a good reason to be bearish

    Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Barry Ritholtz to MacroVoices. Erik and Barry start by defining bull and bear markets and discuss the bullish case for equities. They proceed to discuss the U.S Dollar, interest rate trends, junk bonds and the China credit risks. They then take a deep dive into populism, the growing trends in socialism, crony capitalism and what is wrong with MMT. Special post game guest Charlie McElligott.

  • Bassman/Cudmore/Snider: Market Correction Review

    MacroVoices welcomes Harley Bassman, Mark Cudmore and Jeffrey Snider for a triple header episode asking if the market correction is over. The further discuss, bonds, commodities and the U.S. Dollar.

  • Bill Fleckenstein: The Perils of Short Selling in a World Awash in Central Bank Liquidity

    Fleckenstein3Erik Townsend welcomes Bill Fleckenstein to MacroVoices. Erik and Bill discuss:

    • A coming correction in equities - what's different this time?
    • "The fumes of QE" and non-US sources of liquidity
    • The tactics one must necessarily employ to succed in short selling
    • 20 years of failed activist Fed policy
    • A potential bond market revolt and an end to the dollar bull market
    • The real rate of inflation and the irrelevance of the CPI
    • The destruction of the middle class by central bankers and politicians
    • The time to be short vs. the time to be patient
    • Gold, gold miners, and the end of the bear market in precious metals
    • Plus Erik's market recap and his own insights into short selling
    • and plenty more...

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  • Bill Fleckenstein: The Perils of Short Selling in a World Awash in Central Bank Liquidity

    Erik interviews Bill Fleckenstein and they discuss the tactics involved in short selling, and the dangers of doing so in a market fueled by central bank liquidity.

  • Brent Johnson: A big dollar rally could drag stocks higher with it

    Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Brent Johnson to MacroVoices. Erik and Brent discuss Brent’s “Dollar Milkshake Theory”, short term and long term outlook on gold, and what impacts the dollar breakout will have on US and the global economy.

  • Charles Biderman: The Monetary Policy Endgame

    Erik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Charles Biderman to MacroVoices. Erik and Charles discuss big picture and current market contexts beginning from Post-WW2, flight capital impact on U.S. markets, backstory related to sub-advisor relationship with and termination from AdvisorShares, and much more.

  • Charles Gave: Our Industry is NOT prepared for secular inflation!

    Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Charles Gave to MacroVoices. Erik and Charles discuss the corporate yield curve and what it is telling us about the equity market. They then delve into the Hong Kong dollar peg and perspective on China’s debt and related risks. They further discuss the risk parity trade with bonds and stocks selling off simultaneously and the return of secular inflation. They look at the upcoming monetary war and how gold will play the arbiter”. They further look into what happened in the 70’s with inflation and how one can prepare for the return of secular inflation.

  • Charlie McElligott: Fear the Steepener

    Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Charlie McElligott back to MacroVoices. Erik and Charlie discuss the china credit impulse and PBoC liquidity operations. The discuss if this is a bear market rally or continuation of bull market and fading the Fed’s economic optimism. They update CTA positioning across asset classes and positioning in risk parity funds. They finally end with a conversation on the yield curve steepener.

  • Charlie McElligott: Phase one is over. The easy money has already been made.

    Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Charlie McElligott to Macrovoices. Erik and Charlie discuss the curve steepener as a recession signal and the current impact that the dollar, real rates and inflation expectations have on the markets. They further touch on the Chinese credit/financing impulse and the late cycle behavior from autos and homebuilders. They discuss the yield curve, the Nabe wage surveys, unemployment and what they tell us about future recessions.

  • Charlie McElligott: The opportunity will be found selling puts. But not yet!

    Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Charlie McElligott to MacroVoices. Erik and Charlie discuss the impact of policy change on the yield curve, the drivers of volatility in rates, and futures driven equity unwind and more.

  • Chris Cole: The ‘BIG ONE’ (Vol event) hasn’t happened yet.

    Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Chris Cole back to MacroVoices. Erik and Chris dissect the Vol crash in February 2018 and the implicit/explicit short vol risks. They then put perspective on the next phase of the short vol unwind and the impacts of the reduction of central bank balance sheets. They further discuss the link between volatility and the credit cycle and the stock/bond correlation.

  • Chris Cole: Volatility and the Alchemy of Risk

    Erik Townsend welcomes Chris Cole to MacroVoices. Erik and Chris discuss all things about underlying risks in the current low volatility market. They discuss share buybacks, the explicit vs implicit short vol positions and the impact of risk parity, VAR control, funds. The look at the potential impact of the unwind in the short VIX trade and why the scenarios echo the period prior to the 1987 market drop.

  • Chris Cook: Energy Markets are Manipulated in Multiple Timeframe

    MacroVoices welcomes Chris Cook to the show. Erik and Chris discuss the blow out of time spreads in WTI, oil deals outside of the market and the impact of Syncrude going offline. They further discuss dark inventories, what is it and how does it fit into the big picture. They further discuss the China and the Petro-Yuan contract and gaming US exports and inventories.

MACRO VOICES is presented for informational and entertainment purposes only. The information presented in MACRO VOICES should NOT be construed as investment advice. Always consult a licensed investment professional before making important investment decisions. The opinions expressed on MACRO VOICES are those of the participants. MACRO VOICES, its producers, and hosts Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna shall NOT be liable for losses resulting from investment decisions based on information or viewpoints presented on MACRO VOICES.

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