Macro Voices

Weekly market commentary by Hedge Fund Manager Erik Townsend and interviews with the brightest minds in the world of finance and macroeconomics. Made possible by funding from Fourth Turning Capital Management, LLC
Title Date Author

Francesco Filia: Stock market CRASH entirely possible

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome back Francesco Filia to MacroVoices. Erik and Francesco discuss bear markets, complex dynamic systems, and the phase transitions and the twin bubbles. The continue discussing tipping points, crash hallmarks and butterflies. They ask why are the risks now and will treasury bonds going to be the benefactor? The end asking how to play the short side of the markets?

2019-02-14 MacroVoices

Alex Gurevich: Interest rate momentum is an excellent predictor of equity market performance

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome back Alex Gurevich to MacroVoices. Erik and Alex discuss the bigger picture outlook on the business cycle, the yield curve, Treasury bonds and the dollar. They further discuss the current quantitative tightening cycle and when the Fed will again begin easing. They then go around the world discussing the global economies in Australia, Canada, China Japan and Europe. The end with a discussion on where is gold heading in the bigger picture and interest rates momentum as a predictor of equity markets.

2019-02-07 MacroVoices

Grant Williams: The Trouble in Europe Has Only Just Begun

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Grant Williams back to MacroVoices. Erik asks Grant if we in a cyclical bear market and where he feels treasury bond yields are headed next. They discuss tensions between China and Taiwan, the rise of global populism and the future of France and Europe. Grant shares his update on how things are developing on Australian Real Estate and the risks of a recession. They end with touching on gold and the U.S. dollar.

2019-01-31 MacroVoices

Russell Napier: PBOC dictating global inflation

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Russell Napier back to MacroVoices. Erik and Patrick discuss treasury bonds, China and the tightening of Chinese monetary policy. They ask which central bank is dictating global inflation, the fed monetary policy and ask if the Fed is out of bullets? They end with an outlook for developed stock markets and ask if the decade long bull market over?

2019-01-23 MacroVoices

Charlie McElligott: Fear the Steepener

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Charlie McElligott back to MacroVoices. Erik and Charlie discuss the china credit impulse and PBoC liquidity operations. The discuss if this is a bear market rally or continuation of bull market and fading the Fed’s economic optimism. They update CTA positioning across asset classes and positioning in risk parity funds. They finally end with a conversation on the yield curve steepener.

2019-01-15 MacroVoices

Chris Cole: The ‘BIG ONE’ (Vol event) hasn’t happened yet.

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Chris Cole back to MacroVoices. Erik and Chris dissect the Vol crash in February 2018 and the implicit/explicit short vol risks. They then put perspective on the next phase of the short vol unwind and the impacts of the reduction of central bank balance sheets. They further discuss the link between volatility and the credit cycle and the stock/bond correlation.

2019-01-10 MacroVoices

Marin Katusa: Oil, Steel & Diamonds on the Natural Resources Radar

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Marin Katusa to MacroVoices. Erik and Marin discuss uranium producers and the recent drop in oil prices. They then go on to discuss the opportunities in the steel and diamond industries. They finally wrap things up with a broader look at resource investing and what it takes to be a successful resource investor.

2019-01-03 MacroVoices

Year-end Special: Best Market Calls of 2018

Join Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna as they spend an episode reviewing the best market calls of 2018. They discuss which guests nailed the Bitcoin top, the VIX crash, the Chinese economic turn, emerging markets top, S and P 500 top, the turn in corporate bonds, FAANG, and the peak in bond yields.

2018-12-27 MacroVoices

Daniel Want: Systems View of OTC Derivatives

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Daniel Want to MacroVoices. Erik and Daniel discuss system thinking, OTC derivative markets and the counter party risks that exist in the system. They look back at the system wide margin calls back in 2007-08 and discuss the global financial situation today. Brent Johnson joins the conversation in the postgame to discuss the U.S. Dollar, gold and the stock markets.

2018-12-20 MacroVoices

Prof. Edward Altman: High Yield Benevolent Cycle Not Yet Over

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Prof. Edward Altman to MacroVoices. Erik and Edward discuss the credit cycle and the length of the current benign cycle. They elaborate on historical default rates, recessions and the surge in U.S. corporate leverage. In the postgame following the interview, Louis-Vincent Gave joins the team to discuss the liquidity squeeze and the end of Chin-America.

2018-12-13 MacroVoices

Juliette Declercq: “Dovish Pivot” is not a game-changer yet

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Juliette Declercq back to MacroVoices. Erik and Juliette discuss the impact of trade war on the global economy. They then discuss the PBOC, the Chinese monetary policy and the broader global growth outlook. They move on to touch on the U.S. Dollar, the U.S. monetary policy outlook and ask if the Powell dovish pivot a game changer?

2018-12-06 MacroVoices

Julian Brigden: Secular Bond Bear Doesn’t Preclude Significant Rallies

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Julian Brigden back to the show. Erik and Julian discuss what is driving the bond market, demographics and the global excesses in the equity markets. They ask is the U.S. housing markets overpriced, where is the next trade in treasuries and is the stock market due for a big bubble bounce? They finally touch on inflation considerations in 2019 and what is the next move for the Fed?

2018-11-29 MacroVoices

Jeffrey Christian: Investment demand for precious metals is bottoming

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Jeffrey Christian to MacroVoices. Jeffrey is the Managing Director and Founder of CPM Group. Erik and Jeffrey discuss the recent moves in gold and look at the forecast for 2019 and beyond. They further discuss why investment demand has dropped and more importantly, is it turning? The touch on silver and give perspective on the gold:silver ratio. Finally, they discuss the intermarket relationships of gold to other assets and give an update on the platinum and palladium markets. Stay tuned for the post-game where geologist Art Berman joins us to discuss the recent drop in crude oil prices.

2018-11-21 MacroVoices

Keith McCullough: Bond Yields May Have Peaked

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Keith McCullough to MacroVoices. Erik and Keith discuss how the investment landscape has evolved, why deflationary pressures are on the horizon. They further discuss the marginal rates of change in growth and inflation, U.S. real GDP and CPI forecasts, the global economic landscape and the key macro themes into the year end.

2018-11-15 MacroVoices

BONUS: Beyond Blockchain Audiobook Chapter 1

Audiobook Chapter 1 FREE Preview
The cryptocurrency trend of the past few years has continued to grow despite widespread predictions that it would just be a flash in the pan. Blockchain is suddenly everyone’s favorite buzzword. But what if there’s more to this story than meets the eye? What if Digital Currency is about to change the world in ways beyond our imagination? And what if geopolitical forces our politicians don’t even understand have already inspired China and Russia to use Digital Currency to attack the U.S. Dollar’s dominance over the global financial system?

2018-11-14 Erik Townsend

Jonathan Tepper: The Myth of Capitalism

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Jonathan Tepper to MacroVoices. Erik and Jonathan discuss if the market correction over, the outlook for U.S. interest rates and the short and longer-term drivers in the U.S. Dollar. They further touch on China, Europe, inflation, oil, and real estate in Australia, Canada and the United States. Finally, they discuss his new book, the Myth of Capitalism and delve into monopolies and competition.

2018-11-08 MacroVoices

Dr. Pippa Malmgren: Embracing Entrepreneurship

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Dr. Pippa Malmgren to MacroVoices. Erik and Pippa discuss the opportunities on drone technology and the leaders in unmanned aerial vehicles. They further discuss the issues of data privacy in the firmware and the risks of drones being used for terrorism. They go on to discuss her new book Leadership Lab. They discuss the new paradigms of leadership, the speed of technological change and slow rate at which governments are adapting.

2018-11-01 MacroVoices

Daniel Lacalle: Synchronized Global Growth was always a False Narrative

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Daniel Lacalle to MacroVoices. Erik and Daniel debate if this is a market correction or is it the end of the bull market? They touch on the Fed’s responsiveness to changing monetary policy and ask where bond yields are heading from here? They proceed to touch on Europe, the ECB, Italy, European junk bonds, Emerging Markets and more. During the post game Marin Katusa joins us to discuss Mohammed bin Salman, Saudi Arabia, oil prices and gold.

2018-10-24 MacroVoices

Prof Steve Hanke: M4 is the most under appreciated indicator

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Prof Steve Hanke to MacroVoices. Erik and Steve discuss drivers of the recessions over the last 30 years,
perspectives on Lehman Brothers failure,
M4 Money Supply as the broadest measure,
dangers in quantitative tightening,
commercial banks drive money supply,
stabilizing the U.S. Dollar Euro rate,
understanding past hyperinflation,
and some perspective on Venezuela's hyperinflation

2018-10-18 MacroVoices

Prof Steve Keen: The Real Risk is in Private Credit

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Prof Steve Keen to MacroVoices. Erik and Steve put perspective on global sovereign and private debt. Erik asks if government debt is still a safe haven? They further touch on junk bonds, corporate debt, credit spreads and ask how another financial crisis occurs and which countries are most vulnerable. After the interview, post game guest Charlie McElligott joins Erik and Patrick to dissect the current market drop and where the next opportunities lie.

2018-10-11 MacroVoices

MACRO VOICES is presented for informational and entertainment purposes only. The information presented in MACRO VOICES should NOT be construed as investment advice. Always consult a licensed investment professional before making important investment decisions. The opinions expressed on MACRO VOICES are those of the participants. MACRO VOICES, its producers, and hosts Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna shall NOT be liable for losses resulting from investment decisions based on information or viewpoints presented on MACRO VOICES.

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