Macro Voices

Weekly market commentary by Hedge Fund Manager Erik Townsend and interviews with the brightest minds in the world of finance and macroeconomics. Made possible by funding from Fourth Turning Capital Management, LLC
Title Date Author

Luke Gromen: Secular Dollar Bear goes Tactically Dollar Bullish

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome back Luke Gromen to MacroVoices. Erik and Luke discuss the outlook on the U.S. dollar, funding the U.S. deficits and the U.S. “Impossible Trilemma”. They further discuss Luke’s perspective of the Fed taking the “Shoot the Hostage” stance on the markets and particularly the influence on the emerging markets. They discuss China accelerating global de-dollarization and the U.S. weaponizing the USD and oil against Russia and Iran.

2018-06-21 MacroVoices

Crude Oil Special: Anas Alhajji, Joe McMonigle, Dr. Ellen Wald

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Anas Alhajji, Joe McMonigle and Dr. Ellen Wald to the show. Erik and Ellen discuss how does Saudi Arabia looks at the oil market, perspective about Saudi Aramco, understanding Mohammad bin Salman and the social politics in Saudi Arabia. During the second part of the interview, Erik, Joe and Anas discuss what is driving the oil markets, Iranian sanctions, OPEC and backwardation.

2018-06-14 MacroVoices

DoubleLine’s Jeffrey Sherman: Bond Bear Market is Pausing but Not Over!

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Jeffrey Sherman to MacroVoices. Erik and Jeffrey discuss the big picture outlook on the economy, bonds and interest rates. They ask if there is a recession coming in the U.S. and how much upside on the U.S. Dollar? They further debate how will the economy deal with higher rates and inflation, the outlook on gold and commodities.

2018-06-07 MacroVoices

Nomi Prins: Central Bank Collusion; Pat Hemsworth: Crude Oil Update

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Nomi Prins to MacroVoices. Erik and Nomi discuss central bank collusion to prop up asset prices. They further look into why QE never led to runaway inflation and why there has been no consequences over the last 10 years. For the second interview Erik welcomes Pat Hemsworth to the show to discuss everything oil.

2018-05-31 MacroVoices

Dr. Lacy Hunt: The Bond Bull Market is NOT over!

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Dr. Lacy Hunt back to MacroVoices. Erik and Lacy ask if the bond bear market has really started and what are the opposing views? They further discuss shorting high yield debt, junk credit and ask where to be on the yield curve right now. They then move on to discuss the bigger picture as to whether America ever be able to repay the debt and where is the point of no return.

2018-05-24 MacroVoices

Juliette Declercq: The bear argument for the USD

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Juliette Declercq back to MacroVoices. Erik and Juliette discuss the U.S. Dollar, rate differentials and ask if there has been a regime shift. They further discuss how does the economic data tie back into bearish dollar narrative and what are the tactical considerations on a dollar short. They further touch on how traders can position themselves on the interim.

2018-05-17 MacroVoices

Charles Gave: Our Industry is NOT prepared for secular inflation!

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Charles Gave to MacroVoices. Erik and Charles discuss the corporate yield curve and what it is telling us about the equity market. They then delve into the Hong Kong dollar peg and perspective on China’s debt and related risks. They further discuss the risk parity trade with bonds and stocks selling off simultaneously and the return of secular inflation. They look at the upcoming monetary war and how gold will play the arbiter”. They further look into what happened in the 70’s with inflation and how one can prepare for the return of secular inflation.

2018-05-10 MacroVoices

Russell Napier: Signs of incipient inflation are a false alarm and won’t last long

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Russell Napier to MacroVoices. Erik and Russell discuss deflationary risks in the U.S. and context on current higher inflation prints. Erik asks Russell how high are risks of a credit event and what risks are there emanating from China.
They further consider the impact of higher interest rates and ask if there a concern of the U.S. government not being able to fund itself. They ask what comes next for the equity markets, the impacts on junk bonds and what is next for Japan.

2018-05-03 MacroVoices

Marin Katusa: Copper, Uranium & the EV Revolution

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Marin Katusa to the show. They discuss uranium exports to from Russia to the U.S. and what options does the US have for new uranium sources? They further explore electric vehicles and why they’ll be a dominant trend over the coming years and why copper is a key component in playing the EV trend. They discuss if copper is a sole source material for EV or is there an alternative?

2018-04-26 MacroVoices

Bassman/Cudmore/Snider: Market Correction Review

MacroVoices welcomes Harley Bassman, Mark Cudmore and Jeffrey Snider for a triple header episode asking if the market correction is over. The further discuss, bonds, commodities and the U.S. Dollar.

2018-04-19 MacroVoices

Darius Dale: Hedgeye turn BEARISH U.S. Growth

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Darius Dale to MacroVoices. Erik and Darius discuss the peak in the U.S. growth cycle, inflation and earnings. They further discuss the global divergence reiterated and the prognostications vs the reality of the markets.
They further discuss China’s massive credit expansion, the US dollar and the breakdown in currency and interest differentials.

2018-04-12 MacroVoices

Simon White: Equities are running out of road

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Simon White to MacroVoices. Erik and Simon discuss the equity markets and the post-crash dynamics. They look at the medium-term drivers of the U.S. dollar and ask if something has fundamentally changed in the U.S. treasury markets. They look that the yield curve, TED and LIBOR OIS spreads and conclude by looking at the outlook on the Canadian, Chinese and Japanese economies.

2018-04-05 MacroVoices

Julian Brigden: Stock collapse under own weight or Fed/yields do it for them

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Julian Brigden to MacroVoices. Erik and Julian discuss what is on the horizon for inflation and is there a risk of runaway inflation? They look at today’s market and what comes next for equities. They discuss if the market highs in already and if bonds and stocks sell off, where does the money go? They look at the US dollar, the correlation breakdown between the USD and US bonds and where to focus the bond short.

2018-03-29 MacroVoices

Jeff Snider: U.S. Treasury Yield Curve Deep Dive

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Jeffrey Snider to MacroVoices. Erik and Jeff discuss what the current yield curve is telling us? They touch on the changes from an era of fed funds rate targeting and reflect on the 2006-2009 period for interest rates and the reflation trends in the post “Great Financial Crisis”. Jeff continues to deconstruct rates, the negative term premiums and the markets inflation expectations. They conclude looking at central bank failure and why this flat curve is bad.

2018-03-22 MacroVoices

John Mauldin: No sign of imminent recession

Erik Townsend welcomes John Mauldin to MacroVoices. Erik starts by asking John if this is the end or just the beginning of this small market dislocation? They further discuss drivers behind the back up of interest rates and ask how far can the 10-year go before something breaks and what are the risks? They proceed to discuss inflation, China and some of the surprises from the SIC conference this year.

2018-03-15 Erik Townsend

Jim Grant: The great Bond BEAR Market has already begun!

Erik Townsend welcomes Jim Grant to MacroVoices. Erik and Jim discuss new Fed governor Powell, treasury yields and how far the FED go before something breaks. They discuss his outlook on inflation, gold, junk bonds, China and the drivers of long term debt cycles. They reflect on History and what happened when the FED did not bail out the banks in 1920 and considerations on what actions the US government can take to deal with the debt.

2018-03-08 MacroVoices

Jeffrey Snider: Since 2008 major turning points in Gold have been punctuated by Eurodollar anomalies

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Jeffrey Snider to MacroVoices. Erik and Jeffrey discuss gold swaps, how central banks engage in them and what has changed in gold swap markets today. They further investigate the gold bug’s conspiracy theory about “gold pukes” and what happened to gold in the 2008 crisis. They finally touch on how has the mood changed in gold starting 2017?

2018-03-01 MacroVoices

Rick Rule: Natural Resource Investing

Erik Townsend welcomes back Rick Rule from Sprott Global to MacroVoices. Erik and Rick discuss using a top down macro perspective on resource investing. The delve into rare earths, lithium uranium and nuclear energy. The discuss the future of liquid fluoride thorium reactors, copper, potash and investing in water as a commodity.

2018-02-22 MacroVoices

Eric Peters: Systemic Risks are Mounting

Erik Townsend welcomes Eric Peters to MacroVoices. Erik and Eric discuss if this is just a small equity market dislocation or is this bigger, the VIX complex and why the Inverse VIX products were flawed. They put context on the increasing rates, the movement of the dollar, stagflation and inflation risks. They further consider the impact of the changes of leadership at the FED and the policy tools they will be able to use during the next recession.

2018-02-15 MacroVoices

Jared Dillian: The week short vol imploded

Erik Townsend welcomes Jared Dillian to MacroVoices. Erik and Jared discuss the drivers of this stock market drop and ask if higher volatility here to stay? The further discuss if this is the beginning of a sustained unwinding of the short vol trade and where are the markets heading from here. They further discuss bonds, interest rates, the US dollar and gold.

2018-02-08 MacroVoices

MACRO VOICES is presented for informational and entertainment purposes only. The information presented in MACRO VOICES should NOT be construed as investment advice. Always consult a licensed investment professional before making important investment decisions. The opinions expressed on MACRO VOICES are those of the participants. MACRO VOICES, its producers, and hosts Erik Townsend and Nathan Egger shall NOT be liable for losses resulting from investment decisions based on information or viewpoints presented on MACRO VOICES.

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