Macro Voices

Weekly market commentary by Hedge Fund Manager Erik Townsend and interviews with the brightest minds in the world of finance and macroeconomics. Made possible by funding from Fourth Turning Capital Management, LLC
Title Date Author

Prof Steve Keen: The Real Risk is in Private Credit

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Prof Steve Keen to MacroVoices. Erik and Steve put perspective on global sovereign and private debt. Erik asks if government debt is still a safe haven? They further touch on junk bonds, corporate debt, credit spreads and ask how another financial crisis occurs and which countries are most vulnerable. After the interview, post game guest Charlie McElligott joins Erik and Patrick to dissect the current market drop and where the next opportunities lie.

2018-10-11 MacroVoices

Louis-Vincent Gave: Breakdown in Historical Norms between Emerging Markets and USTs

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Louis-Vincent Gave to MacroVoices. Erik and Louis discuss drivers in emerging markets route, the global equity markets and how long the divergence can last between US and global equity markets. The further discuss the impact on U.S. treasuries, global de-dollarization and the dissolution of Chimerica. They look at NAFTA and the changing of the supply chain as well as the outlook for gold and precious metals.

2018-10-04 MacroVoices

Keith Dicker: The next major financial crisis will happen in the Bond market

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Keith Dicker back to MacroVoices. Erik and Keith discuss the government bond bubble, artificially suppressed interest rates and rethinking bonds for portfolio allocations. They discuss what impact that a bond market route could have on equities and if the bond bear market has started. They conclude with their outlook on equities and gold.

2018-09-27 MacroVoices

Art Berman: The market has de-valued the oil price yield curve

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Art Berman back to MacroVoices. Erik and Art discuss comparative inventory and inventory correlation to price on oil. They further look at price cycles, the oil-price yield curve and the impact of U.S. exporting oil. They further discuss why backwardation is collapsing on WTI, sensitivities to supply concerns and the discrepancies between IEA and OPEC forecasts.

2018-09-20 MacroVoices

Charlie McElligott: Phase one is over. The easy money has already been made.

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Charlie McElligott to Macrovoices. Erik and Charlie discuss the curve steepener as a recession signal and the current impact that the dollar, real rates and inflation expectations have on the markets. They further touch on the Chinese credit/financing impulse and the late cycle behavior from autos and homebuilders. They discuss the yield curve, the Nabe wage surveys, unemployment and what they tell us about future recessions.

2018-09-13 MacroVoices

Marin Katusa: The setup for Uranium is better now than any time in the last decade

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Marin Katusa back to MacroVoices. Erik and Marin discuss uranium and why it is an opportunity now and the political and geopolitical considerations in picking your investments. They further discuss the royalty and streaming business model for uranium and the private placement opportunities in the streaming model. They further discuss warrants on resource companies and what to focus on when looking for companies that are acquisition targets.

2018-09-06 MacroVoices

Danielle DiMartino Booth: Jay Powell is a new breed of Fed Chairman

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Danielle DiMartino Booth to MacroVoices. Erik and Danielle discuss Jay Powell as the new Fed Chair. They discuss Jackson Hole, how Powell did and the absence of Draghi and Kuroda. They further discuss the impacts from the trade war, markets reaction to quantitative tightening, Fed policy and the economy. They further touch on inflation expectations, Europe and the outlook for China.

2018-08-30 MacroVoices

EuroDollar University, Season 2, Part 3

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Jeffrey Snider back to MacroVoices for Part 3 of Season 2 of the new Eurodollar University series. During this episode, Erik and Jeff delve in the federal reserve intervention, the structural changes in the Eurodollar system and the shift in bank views from riskless return to returnless risk. They further look into its impact on sustained economic growth and impact on global economies.

2018-08-23 MacroVoices

EuroDollar University, Season 2, Part 2

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Jeffrey Snider back to MacroVoices for Part 2 of Season 2 of the new Eurodollar University series. During this episode, Erik and Jeff discuss the collateral problems with gold during 2008. Jeff explains why the crisis was a liquidity risk, not a credit risk. They elaborate on the basic interbank functions, balance sheet capacity, negative swap spreads and the pro-cyclical positive monetary feedback loop.

2018-08-16 Erik Townsend

EuroDollar University, Season 2, Part 1

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Jeffrey Snider back to MacroVoices for Part 1 of Season 2 of the new Eurodollar University series. During this episode, Erik and Jeff discuss the lost dollar decade and put into context the global dollar markets. They further dive into the shadows of the great financial crisis and the liquidity crisis in the CDS markets.

2018-08-09 Erik Townsend

Jesse Felder: Equity Markets are in a Topping Process

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Jesse Felder to MacroVoices. Erik and Jesse discuss drivers behind the everything bubble, and will quantitative tightening be a trigger? Impacts of market leverage, the Buffet yard stick and what is in store for the FAANG stocks.

2018-08-02 MacroVoices

Martin Armstrong: There is no alternative to the Equity Market

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome back Martin Armstrong to MacroVoices. Erik and Martin discuss if there is room for the equity bull market to continue. They further discuss the outlook on global bond, U.S. Dollar, and gold. They further discuss the geopolitics in Europe, Russia and China and look at domestic politics in the U.S. going into the mid-term elections.

2018-07-26 MacroVoices

David Rosenberg: The top is probably in already

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome David Rosenberg to MacroVoices. Erik asks Dave if there is one more leg higher in the S&P500 or is the top in? They further discuss the outlook on junk and investment grade bonds and how to play the short on low grade corporates. They further discuss inflation, USD, the business cycle and where yields are heading from hear. The end with the outlook on the Canadian dollar and the Canadian housing cycle.

2018-07-19 MacroVoices

Dr. Pippa Malmgren: Social Media Data Mining is the new Geopolitical Frontier

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Dr. Pippa Malmgren to MacroVoices. Erik and Pippa discuss Trump, art of the deal, trade wars and North Korea. They further discuss Russia, Syria, US and chemical warfare and global de-dollarization. They finally end discussing Facebook’s impact on geo-politics and financial markets, social media data mining and the Leadership Lab: Understanding Leadership in the 21st century

2018-07-12 MacroVoices

Chris Cook: Energy Markets are Manipulated in Multiple Timeframe

MacroVoices welcomes Chris Cook to the show. Erik and Chris discuss the blow out of time spreads in WTI, oil deals outside of the market and the impact of Syncrude going offline. They further discuss dark inventories, what is it and how does it fit into the big picture. They further discuss the China and the Petro-Yuan contract and gaming US exports and inventories.

2018-07-05 MacroVoices

Eric Peters: USD Reserve Status, Unfunded Liabilities, Inflation & More

MacroVoices and Erik Townsend welcomes Eric Peters as this week’s guest, co-hosted by Kevin Muir. Erik and Eric discuss the future of the USD as the world reserve currency, the impact of protectionist policies on financial markets and the FED reductions and their impact around the world. The further discuss inflation, entitlements and the changes we can expect in central bank attitudes moving forward. Later in the podcast the discuss demographics, baby boomers, and millennials and their impact over the coming years on financial markets.

2018-06-28 Erik Townsend

Luke Gromen: Secular Dollar Bear goes Tactically Dollar Bullish

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome back Luke Gromen to MacroVoices. Erik and Luke discuss the outlook on the U.S. dollar, funding the U.S. deficits and the U.S. “Impossible Trilemma”. They further discuss Luke’s perspective of the Fed taking the “Shoot the Hostage” stance on the markets and particularly the influence on the emerging markets. They discuss China accelerating global de-dollarization and the U.S. weaponizing the USD and oil against Russia and Iran.

2018-06-21 MacroVoices

Crude Oil Special: Anas Alhajji, Joe McMonigle, Dr. Ellen Wald

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Anas Alhajji, Joe McMonigle and Dr. Ellen Wald to the show. Erik and Ellen discuss how does Saudi Arabia looks at the oil market, perspective about Saudi Aramco, understanding Mohammad bin Salman and the social politics in Saudi Arabia. During the second part of the interview, Erik, Joe and Anas discuss what is driving the oil markets, Iranian sanctions, OPEC and backwardation.

2018-06-14 MacroVoices

DoubleLine’s Jeffrey Sherman: Bond Bear Market is Pausing but Not Over!

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Jeffrey Sherman to MacroVoices. Erik and Jeffrey discuss the big picture outlook on the economy, bonds and interest rates. They ask if there is a recession coming in the U.S. and how much upside on the U.S. Dollar? They further debate how will the economy deal with higher rates and inflation, the outlook on gold and commodities.

2018-06-07 MacroVoices

Nomi Prins: Central Bank Collusion; Pat Hemsworth: Crude Oil Update

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Nomi Prins to MacroVoices. Erik and Nomi discuss central bank collusion to prop up asset prices. They further look into why QE never led to runaway inflation and why there has been no consequences over the last 10 years. For the second interview Erik welcomes Pat Hemsworth to the show to discuss everything oil.

2018-05-31 MacroVoices

MACRO VOICES is presented for informational and entertainment purposes only. The information presented in MACRO VOICES should NOT be construed as investment advice. Always consult a licensed investment professional before making important investment decisions. The opinions expressed on MACRO VOICES are those of the participants. MACRO VOICES, its producers, and hosts Erik Townsend and Nathan Egger shall NOT be liable for losses resulting from investment decisions based on information or viewpoints presented on MACRO VOICES.

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