Macro Voices

Weekly market commentary by Hedge Fund Manager Erik Townsend and interviews with the brightest minds in the world of finance and macroeconomics. Made possible by funding from Fourth Turning Capital Management, LLC
Title Date Author

Year-end Special: Best Market Calls of 2018

Join Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna as they spend an episode reviewing the best market calls of 2018. They discuss which guests nailed the Bitcoin top, the VIX crash, the Chinese economic turn, emerging markets top, S and P 500 top, the turn in corporate bonds, FAANG, and the peak in bond yields.

2018-12-27 MacroVoices

Daniel Want: Systems View of OTC Derivatives

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Daniel Want to MacroVoices. Erik and Daniel discuss system thinking, OTC derivative markets and the counter party risks that exist in the system. They look back at the system wide margin calls back in 2007-08 and discuss the global financial situation today. Brent Johnson joins the conversation in the postgame to discuss the U.S. Dollar, gold and the stock markets.

2018-12-20 MacroVoices

Prof. Edward Altman: High Yield Benevolent Cycle Not Yet Over

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Prof. Edward Altman to MacroVoices. Erik and Edward discuss the credit cycle and the length of the current benign cycle. They elaborate on historical default rates, recessions and the surge in U.S. corporate leverage. In the postgame following the interview, Louis-Vincent Gave joins the team to discuss the liquidity squeeze and the end of Chin-America.

2018-12-13 MacroVoices

Juliette Declercq: “Dovish Pivot” is not a game-changer yet

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Juliette Declercq back to MacroVoices. Erik and Juliette discuss the impact of trade war on the global economy. They then discuss the PBOC, the Chinese monetary policy and the broader global growth outlook. They move on to touch on the U.S. Dollar, the U.S. monetary policy outlook and ask if the Powell dovish pivot a game changer?

2018-12-06 MacroVoices

Julian Brigden: Secular Bond Bear Doesn’t Preclude Significant Rallies

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Julian Brigden back to the show. Erik and Julian discuss what is driving the bond market, demographics and the global excesses in the equity markets. They ask is the U.S. housing markets overpriced, where is the next trade in treasuries and is the stock market due for a big bubble bounce? They finally touch on inflation considerations in 2019 and what is the next move for the Fed?

2018-11-29 MacroVoices

Jeffrey Christian: Investment demand for precious metals is bottoming

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Jeffrey Christian to MacroVoices. Jeffrey is the Managing Director and Founder of CPM Group. Erik and Jeffrey discuss the recent moves in gold and look at the forecast for 2019 and beyond. They further discuss why investment demand has dropped and more importantly, is it turning? The touch on silver and give perspective on the gold:silver ratio. Finally, they discuss the intermarket relationships of gold to other assets and give an update on the platinum and palladium markets. Stay tuned for the post-game where geologist Art Berman joins us to discuss the recent drop in crude oil prices.

2018-11-21 MacroVoices

Keith McCullough: Bond Yields May Have Peaked

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Keith McCullough to MacroVoices. Erik and Keith discuss how the investment landscape has evolved, why deflationary pressures are on the horizon. They further discuss the marginal rates of change in growth and inflation, U.S. real GDP and CPI forecasts, the global economic landscape and the key macro themes into the year end.

2018-11-15 MacroVoices

BONUS: Beyond Blockchain Audiobook Chapter 1

Audiobook Chapter 1 FREE Preview
The cryptocurrency trend of the past few years has continued to grow despite widespread predictions that it would just be a flash in the pan. Blockchain is suddenly everyone’s favorite buzzword. But what if there’s more to this story than meets the eye? What if Digital Currency is about to change the world in ways beyond our imagination? And what if geopolitical forces our politicians don’t even understand have already inspired China and Russia to use Digital Currency to attack the U.S. Dollar’s dominance over the global financial system?

2018-11-14 Erik Townsend

Dr. Pippa Malmgren: Embracing Entrepreneurship

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Dr. Pippa Malmgren to MacroVoices. Erik and Pippa discuss the opportunities on drone technology and the leaders in unmanned aerial vehicles. They further discuss the issues of data privacy in the firmware and the risks of drones being used for terrorism. They go on to discuss her new book Leadership Lab. They discuss the new paradigms of leadership, the speed of technological change and slow rate at which governments are adapting.

2018-11-01 MacroVoices

Daniel Lacalle: Synchronized Global Growth was always a False Narrative

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Daniel Lacalle to MacroVoices. Erik and Daniel debate if this is a market correction or is it the end of the bull market? They touch on the Fed’s responsiveness to changing monetary policy and ask where bond yields are heading from here? They proceed to touch on Europe, the ECB, Italy, European junk bonds, Emerging Markets and more. During the post game Marin Katusa joins us to discuss Mohammed bin Salman, Saudi Arabia, oil prices and gold.

2018-10-24 MacroVoices

Prof Steve Hanke: M4 is the most under appreciated indicator

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Prof Steve Hanke to MacroVoices. Erik and Steve discuss drivers of the recessions over the last 30 years,
perspectives on Lehman Brothers failure,
M4 Money Supply as the broadest measure,
dangers in quantitative tightening,
commercial banks drive money supply,
stabilizing the U.S. Dollar Euro rate,
understanding past hyperinflation,
and some perspective on Venezuela's hyperinflation

2018-10-18 MacroVoices

Prof Steve Keen: The Real Risk is in Private Credit

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Prof Steve Keen to MacroVoices. Erik and Steve put perspective on global sovereign and private debt. Erik asks if government debt is still a safe haven? They further touch on junk bonds, corporate debt, credit spreads and ask how another financial crisis occurs and which countries are most vulnerable. After the interview, post game guest Charlie McElligott joins Erik and Patrick to dissect the current market drop and where the next opportunities lie.

2018-10-11 MacroVoices

Louis-Vincent Gave: Breakdown in Historical Norms between Emerging Markets and USTs

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Louis-Vincent Gave to MacroVoices. Erik and Louis discuss drivers in emerging markets route, the global equity markets and how long the divergence can last between US and global equity markets. The further discuss the impact on U.S. treasuries, global de-dollarization and the dissolution of Chimerica. They look at NAFTA and the changing of the supply chain as well as the outlook for gold and precious metals.

2018-10-04 MacroVoices

Keith Dicker: The next major financial crisis will happen in the Bond market

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Keith Dicker back to MacroVoices. Erik and Keith discuss the government bond bubble, artificially suppressed interest rates and rethinking bonds for portfolio allocations. They discuss what impact that a bond market route could have on equities and if the bond bear market has started. They conclude with their outlook on equities and gold.

2018-09-27 MacroVoices

Art Berman: The market has de-valued the oil price yield curve

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Art Berman back to MacroVoices. Erik and Art discuss comparative inventory and inventory correlation to price on oil. They further look at price cycles, the oil-price yield curve and the impact of U.S. exporting oil. They further discuss why backwardation is collapsing on WTI, sensitivities to supply concerns and the discrepancies between IEA and OPEC forecasts.

2018-09-20 MacroVoices

Charlie McElligott: Phase one is over. The easy money has already been made.

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Charlie McElligott to Macrovoices. Erik and Charlie discuss the curve steepener as a recession signal and the current impact that the dollar, real rates and inflation expectations have on the markets. They further touch on the Chinese credit/financing impulse and the late cycle behavior from autos and homebuilders. They discuss the yield curve, the Nabe wage surveys, unemployment and what they tell us about future recessions.

2018-09-13 MacroVoices

Marin Katusa: The setup for Uranium is better now than any time in the last decade

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Marin Katusa back to MacroVoices. Erik and Marin discuss uranium and why it is an opportunity now and the political and geopolitical considerations in picking your investments. They further discuss the royalty and streaming business model for uranium and the private placement opportunities in the streaming model. They further discuss warrants on resource companies and what to focus on when looking for companies that are acquisition targets.

2018-09-06 MacroVoices

Danielle DiMartino Booth: Jay Powell is a new breed of Fed Chairman

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Danielle DiMartino Booth to MacroVoices. Erik and Danielle discuss Jay Powell as the new Fed Chair. They discuss Jackson Hole, how Powell did and the absence of Draghi and Kuroda. They further discuss the impacts from the trade war, markets reaction to quantitative tightening, Fed policy and the economy. They further touch on inflation expectations, Europe and the outlook for China.

2018-08-30 MacroVoices

EuroDollar University, Season 2, Part 3

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Jeffrey Snider back to MacroVoices for Part 3 of Season 2 of the new Eurodollar University series. During this episode, Erik and Jeff delve in the federal reserve intervention, the structural changes in the Eurodollar system and the shift in bank views from riskless return to returnless risk. They further look into its impact on sustained economic growth and impact on global economies.

2018-08-23 MacroVoices

EuroDollar University, Season 2, Part 2

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Jeffrey Snider back to MacroVoices for Part 2 of Season 2 of the new Eurodollar University series. During this episode, Erik and Jeff discuss the collateral problems with gold during 2008. Jeff explains why the crisis was a liquidity risk, not a credit risk. They elaborate on the basic interbank functions, balance sheet capacity, negative swap spreads and the pro-cyclical positive monetary feedback loop.

2018-08-16 Erik Townsend

MACRO VOICES is presented for informational and entertainment purposes only. The information presented in MACRO VOICES should NOT be construed as investment advice. Always consult a licensed investment professional before making important investment decisions. The opinions expressed on MACRO VOICES are those of the participants. MACRO VOICES, its producers, and hosts Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna shall NOT be liable for losses resulting from investment decisions based on information or viewpoints presented on MACRO VOICES.

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