Macro Voices

Weekly market commentary by Hedge Fund Manager Erik Townsend and interviews with the brightest minds in the world of finance and macroeconomics. Made possible by funding from Fourth Turning Capital Management, LLC
Title Date Author

Prof. Steve Keen: Dollar reserve currency status—blessing or curse?

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Prof. Steve Keen to MacroVoices. Erik and Steve discuss possible benefits to US if the dollar loses its reserve currency status, its impacts on international trades and deindustrialization of US, and possible fiscal crisis and the increase of US Treasury Yields. They also touch on consequences of decrease in demand for US dollar, runaway inflation and runaway trade deficit, risks and opportunities of MMT.

2019-04-11 MacroVoices

Neil Howe: Super-bullish the U.S.A. in the 2030s. But between now and then…

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Neil Howe to MacroVoices. Erik and Neil discuss how the Fourth Turning is unfolding, what is in store for the second half of the fourth turning and how the cycle climax’s at the end. The touch on employment, late-cycle dynamics, trends in real GDP and what demographic trends suggest for the long-term future.

2019-04-04 MacroVoices

Eric Peters: The biggest risk is the Central Banks’ inability to spur Growth & Inflation

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Eric Peters back to MacroVoices. Erik and Eric discuss equity markets, volatility, treasury bonds and the biggest risks in the markets today. During the post game, Juliette Declercq joins the conversation to discuss her Financial Repression Theme.

2019-03-28 MacroVoices

David Rosenberg: stocks, yields headed lower

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome David Rosenberg to MacroVoices. Erik and Dave discuss the FOMC policy shift, market topping formation and ask if we are headed for an earnings recession. They further discuss treasury bonds and what is in store for the corporate bond markets. They leave things off by discussing modern monetary theory, helicopter money and Ben Bernanke’s playbook from 2002.

2019-03-21 MacroVoices

Art Berman: The world is still over-supplied with oil

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Art Berman back to MacroVoices. Erik and Art ask the question was the oil price collapse more than just a correction? The look at world production surplus for 2019-2020, U.S. oil production and ask if OPEC matters anymore. The further look at trends in world liquid production, perspectives on the Brent and WTI curves and ask why is Brent trading at a premium to WTI.

2019-03-14 MacroVoices

Barry Ritholtz: Quantitative tightening is not a good reason to be bearish

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Barry Ritholtz to MacroVoices. Erik and Barry start by defining bull and bear markets and discuss the bullish case for equities. They proceed to discuss the U.S Dollar, interest rate trends, junk bonds and the China credit risks. They then take a deep dive into populism, the growing trends in socialism, crony capitalism and what is wrong with MMT. Special post game guest Charlie McElligott.

2019-03-07 MacroVoices

Dr. Pippa Malmgren: Donald Trump never expected to win. He ran for President to pursue an ulterior motive.

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome back Pippa Malmgren to MacroVoices. Erik and Pippa discuss the U.S./China trade war, the Korean peninsula and the China South Sea. They move on to discuss the future of Donald Trump, China/Russia relations and the future of hypersonic warfare. They wrap up talking about socialism, populism, surveillance capitalism and the outlook for the equity markets.

2019-02-28 MacroVoices

Luke Gromen: The “Dollar End Game” has already begun!

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome back Luke Gromen to MacroVoices. Erik and Luke discuss the underlying motives & timing of the dollar and the particulars of oil, Petrodollar, and global Treasury Holdings. They elaborate on the drivers behind the strong dollar and timing of the dollar endgame. We welcome Brent Johnson to the post game show to discuss the different alternatives to how the dollar end game scenarios play out.

2019-02-21 MacroVoices

Francesco Filia: Stock market CRASH entirely possible

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome back Francesco Filia to MacroVoices. Erik and Francesco discuss bear markets, complex dynamic systems, and the phase transitions and the twin bubbles. The continue discussing tipping points, crash hallmarks and butterflies. They ask why are the risks now and will treasury bonds going to be the benefactor? The end asking how to play the short side of the markets?

2019-02-14 MacroVoices

Alex Gurevich: Interest rate momentum is an excellent predictor of equity market performance

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome back Alex Gurevich to MacroVoices. Erik and Alex discuss the bigger picture outlook on the business cycle, the yield curve, Treasury bonds and the dollar. They further discuss the current quantitative tightening cycle and when the Fed will again begin easing. They then go around the world discussing the global economies in Australia, Canada, China Japan and Europe. The end with a discussion on where is gold heading in the bigger picture and interest rates momentum as a predictor of equity markets.

2019-02-07 MacroVoices

Grant Williams: The Trouble in Europe Has Only Just Begun

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Grant Williams back to MacroVoices. Erik asks Grant if we in a cyclical bear market and where he feels treasury bond yields are headed next. They discuss tensions between China and Taiwan, the rise of global populism and the future of France and Europe. Grant shares his update on how things are developing on Australian Real Estate and the risks of a recession. They end with touching on gold and the U.S. dollar.

2019-01-31 MacroVoices

Russell Napier: PBOC dictating global inflation

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Russell Napier back to MacroVoices. Erik and Patrick discuss treasury bonds, China and the tightening of Chinese monetary policy. They ask which central bank is dictating global inflation, the fed monetary policy and ask if the Fed is out of bullets? They end with an outlook for developed stock markets and ask if the decade long bull market over?

2019-01-23 MacroVoices

Charlie McElligott: Fear the Steepener

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Charlie McElligott back to MacroVoices. Erik and Charlie discuss the china credit impulse and PBoC liquidity operations. The discuss if this is a bear market rally or continuation of bull market and fading the Fed’s economic optimism. They update CTA positioning across asset classes and positioning in risk parity funds. They finally end with a conversation on the yield curve steepener.

2019-01-15 MacroVoices

Chris Cole: The ‘BIG ONE’ (Vol event) hasn’t happened yet.

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Chris Cole back to MacroVoices. Erik and Chris dissect the Vol crash in February 2018 and the implicit/explicit short vol risks. They then put perspective on the next phase of the short vol unwind and the impacts of the reduction of central bank balance sheets. They further discuss the link between volatility and the credit cycle and the stock/bond correlation.

2019-01-10 MacroVoices

Marin Katusa: Oil, Steel & Diamonds on the Natural Resources Radar

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Marin Katusa to MacroVoices. Erik and Marin discuss uranium producers and the recent drop in oil prices. They then go on to discuss the opportunities in the steel and diamond industries. They finally wrap things up with a broader look at resource investing and what it takes to be a successful resource investor.

2019-01-03 MacroVoices

Year-end Special: Best Market Calls of 2018

Join Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna as they spend an episode reviewing the best market calls of 2018. They discuss which guests nailed the Bitcoin top, the VIX crash, the Chinese economic turn, emerging markets top, S and P 500 top, the turn in corporate bonds, FAANG, and the peak in bond yields.

2018-12-27 MacroVoices

Daniel Want: Systems View of OTC Derivatives

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Daniel Want to MacroVoices. Erik and Daniel discuss system thinking, OTC derivative markets and the counter party risks that exist in the system. They look back at the system wide margin calls back in 2007-08 and discuss the global financial situation today. Brent Johnson joins the conversation in the postgame to discuss the U.S. Dollar, gold and the stock markets.

2018-12-20 MacroVoices

Prof. Edward Altman: High Yield Benevolent Cycle Not Yet Over

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Prof. Edward Altman to MacroVoices. Erik and Edward discuss the credit cycle and the length of the current benign cycle. They elaborate on historical default rates, recessions and the surge in U.S. corporate leverage. In the postgame following the interview, Louis-Vincent Gave joins the team to discuss the liquidity squeeze and the end of Chin-America.

2018-12-13 MacroVoices

Juliette Declercq: “Dovish Pivot” is not a game-changer yet

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Juliette Declercq back to MacroVoices. Erik and Juliette discuss the impact of trade war on the global economy. They then discuss the PBOC, the Chinese monetary policy and the broader global growth outlook. They move on to touch on the U.S. Dollar, the U.S. monetary policy outlook and ask if the Powell dovish pivot a game changer?

2018-12-06 MacroVoices

Julian Brigden: Secular Bond Bear Doesn’t Preclude Significant Rallies

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Julian Brigden back to the show. Erik and Julian discuss what is driving the bond market, demographics and the global excesses in the equity markets. They ask is the U.S. housing markets overpriced, where is the next trade in treasuries and is the stock market due for a big bubble bounce? They finally touch on inflation considerations in 2019 and what is the next move for the Fed?

2018-11-29 MacroVoices

MACRO VOICES is presented for informational and entertainment purposes only. The information presented in MACRO VOICES should NOT be construed as investment advice. Always consult a licensed investment professional before making important investment decisions. The opinions expressed on MACRO VOICES are those of the participants. MACRO VOICES, its producers, and hosts Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna shall NOT be liable for losses resulting from investment decisions based on information or viewpoints presented on MACRO VOICES.

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