About Erik Townsend

hedge fund manager Erik Townsend

Erik Townsend is a retired software entrepreneur turned hedge fund manager. Throughout his career, Erik has capitalized on his ability to understand complex systems and anticipate paradigm shifts far in advance of the mainstream. Read More...

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male silhouette.Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Jim Rickards to MacroVoices. Erik and Jim discuss:

  • Private debt problem and its breaking point
  • Progression of growing debt
  • History of US government debt to GDP ratio
  • History of the US treasury market
  • Cost of low growth and high debt
  • Drivers of inflationconfidence not money supply
  • Why Modern Monetary Theory is flawed
  • Why the current International Monetary System is unstable
  • Jim’s new boo“Aftermath: Seven Secrets of Wealth Preservation in the Coming Chaos”

 



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MVEnergyWeek6This week’s panel: Anas Alhajji, Joe McMonigle and Patricia Hemsworth

  • Pat Hemsworth on volatility in finished product markets and impacts of last week's hurricane
  • Dr. Anas Alhajji on IEA and other organizations' bearish price forecasts for 2020
  • Joe McMonigle's behind-the-scenes insights after attending the OPEC meeting in Vienna
  • Iran policy news and the abrupt price drop this week
  • Venezuela and whether Chevron's general license will be extended
  • Canadian crude differentials to WTI - what's causing them and how long will it last?

 

 

 

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SteveKeenArticle

All-Star Prof. Steve Keen and Erik discuss:

  • How the field of economics lost its way and lost touch with how the real world actually works
  • Several examples of clear disconnects between widely accepted economic theory and real-world actuality
  • Prof. Steve’s book recommendations for those who want an interpretation of Economics that’s a little closer to reality than the mainstream


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JeffSnider AllStars

All-Star Jeff Snider and Erik discuss: 

  • Review of Fed Funds rate and Interest on Excess Reserves (IOER) – what do they mean and why are they important
  • The theorydescribing how the Fed believed that IOER would effectively cap the Fed Funds rate within their target range
  • Hard data shows the theory doesn’t match actual reality
  • Jeff’s explanation of what’s really going on, and why a shortage of USD liquidity in the global offshore Eurodollar market is what’s really driving the observed behavior of Fed Funds and IOER

 All-Stars Jeff Snider Chartbook July 15 2019 


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IICFund manager Alex Gurevich is in the hot seat this month, pitching his “perfect trade” from 2014 long bonds and short the Euro. Alex explains why he believes this was truly a ‘perfect’ can’t lose trade, then we translate to current markets 

  • Why Alex believes there was no sane reason with any view to have been short the U.S. 10yr Treasury in 2014
  • The perfect trade: Long bonds and short the Euro, and why it worked in 2014
  • Julian and Juliette’s reactions to the trade itself and to the process question of whether ‘perfect trades’ really exist
  • Translating this to today’s markets, why Julian and Alex no longer agree completely on bond market outlook
  • Juliette teases us with a preview of a trade she got WRONG, which we’ll feature in Episode #3

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this episode, as Erik and the panelists will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

Click here to register for access to supporting materials.


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JulianArticle

All-Star Julian Brigden and Erik discuss:

  • What should we make of crypto currencies suddenly making a come-back? And what about Facebook’s Libra project?
  • Why Julian remains bullish Gold, and his outlook for Silver
  • Why Julian is turning bearish on the USD


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jessefeldermacrovoicepicErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Jesse Felder to MacroVoices. Erik and Jesse discuss:

  • Divergence in market breadth
  • Theories on the length of this market cycle
  • Outlook on US dollar
  • Divergence in bond market
  • Outlook on bond yields
  • Unwind of institutional risk parity trade
  • Value investing strategy in overpriced market
  • Outlook on Gold & Silver
  • Facebook's Libra and cryptocurrency
  • Wealth inequality dichotomy and surveillance capitalism

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this episode's postgame segment, as Erik and Patrick will refer to it throughout the segment. If you are already registered at MacroVoices.com, just login and the download link will appear here once you're logged in. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

Click here to register for access to supporting materials.


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MVEnergyWeek10This week’s panel: Art Berman, Anas Alhajji and Tracy Shuchart

  • Anas Alhajji on the impact of increased car sales in China on the oil market, and the importance of China generally, including electric busses & vehicles
  • Art Berman on key take-aways from this week’s EIA Short Term Energy Outlook
  • Tracy Shuchart on Iranian uranium enrichment
  • Panel discussion of the big price move—Inventory, Tropical Storm, or both?
  • Security for hire in the Straits of Hormuz
  • Art and Anas debate data interpretation

 We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, as Erik and the panelists will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).


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MVAS Luke

All-Star Luke Gromen and Erik discuss:

  • Everyone was so focused on the Jobs number that they missed the re-widening of Fed Funds over IOER, which is more important according to Luke
  • Luke explains the significance of FF > IOER, what it means, and what the consequences are
  • Luke’s take on the global dollar squeeze thesis we’ve discussed extensively on MacroVoices
  • Why the dollar squeeze doesn’t deter Luke from being bearish on the USD and bullish on risk assets, gold, and Bitcoin
  • Luke’s outlook for how things will play out from here in markets


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BrentJohnsonArticle

All-Star Brent Johnson and Erik discuss:

  • Brent says he was caught by surprise by the Gold breakout, but he’s still not chasing it
  • Ultimately, Brent thinks Gold will move much higher, but still questions whether this is really the time
  • Brent’s conviction that the USD is headed higher has never been stronger
  • But he also points out that he las long predicted Gold and the Dollar would eventually move higher together, and this may have begun
  • Brent says 4,000+ on the S&P 500 is entirely possible in the next year or two, not because of strong fundamentals but because Brent believes the U.S. Stock market will become the global safety trade benefactor


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MVAllStar LouisVincentGave

All-Star Louis-Vincent Gave and Erik discuss:

  • U.S. Stock Market at all-time highs, but bond markets are also very high. Is this about foreign capital using U.S. markets as a “safety trade?”
  • Is Deutche Bank’s current distress the new “Lehman Moment” that could indicate coming distress for the entire financial sector?
  • Will Hong Kong real estate crash as a result of China’s aggressive policy moves and Carrie Lam’s Extradition Bill debacle?


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MVAS Pippa

All-Star Dr.Pippa Malmgren and Erik discuss:

  • How Trump's "photo ops" have been making waves in the markets
  • Why Facebook's Libra raises fundamental questions about our roles as consumers, investors, and private citizens
  • Why privacy will be "the governance issue of our time"


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JohnNetto HeadshotErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome John Netto to MacroVoices. Erik and John discuss:

  • What’s driving this market?
  • Where is gold heading next?
  • Key macro factors driving markets
  • Outlook on fixed income market
  • Risk budget vs. Sharpe ratio
  • Limitations of Sharpe ratio
  • Outlook on the Mexican Peso 
  • How to apply sentiment indicators to investing strategy
  • Trader psychology
  • Macro analysis using Netto numbers

  We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this episode's postgame segment, as Erik and Patrick will refer to it throughout the segment. If you are already registered at MacroVoices.com, just login and the download link will appear here once you're logged in. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

Click here to register for access to supporting materials.


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JulietteArticle

All-Star Juliette Declercq and Erik discuss:

  • Does Christine Lagarde’s appointment to head the ECB change the Financial Repression outlook?
  • Macron is still the chief architect of who has power in Europe
  • Outlook for ECB policy leading up to the U.S. Election
  • Effect on asset prices
  • Conclusion: Giving power over the ECB to someone with strong relationships with EU leaders AND a strong fiscal background has to be a good thing


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MVEnergyWeek9This week’s panel: Chris Cook and Ole Hansen

  • Summary of G20 and OPEC+ meeting outcome & market reactions
  • This week’s EIA Inventory data
  •  By listener request: Chris Cook takes a deep dive on forward curves and who trades them

 We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, as Erik and the panelists will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

Click here to register for access to supporting materials.


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DanielleArticle

Today's All-Star Danielle DiMartino Booth and Erik discuss: 

  • Economic conditions are deteriorating globally. We’re in a global recession.
  • The U.S. Can’t stay de-coupled from global economic slowdown indefinitely!
  • Danielle’s take on the feud between the Fed and the Trump Administration
  • Why monetary policy must remain independent from political influence


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SteveKeenArticle

All-Star Prof. Steve Keen and Erik discuss:

  • Why economists don’t consider Credit in their Aggregate Demand models
  • Why they’re wrong, and why credit matters
  • Detailed review of credit’s role in aggregate demand

Prof.Steve Keen - Credit Bubbles 


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JeffSnider AllStars

All-Star Jeff Snider and Erik discuss:

  • Treasury and Eurodollar LIBOR yield curve inversions
  • Fed Funds Money Equivalents
  • Interest Rate Swaps
  • Eurodollar Futures Curve

Jeff Snider Chartbook July 1, 2019


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MV Video Digital Currency RevolutionIn this first of what we hope to be many more MacroVoices Videos, Erik Townsend provides an update on the Digital Currency Revolution. In this video Erik covers the following...

  • The Digital Currency Revolution will be as big of a deal as the PC or the Public Internet
  • Blockchain-based Cryptocurrencies will not play a major role in the digital currency revolution
  • New distributed ledger technology is already making Blockchain obsolete
  • Erik’s 2018 book predicted that Silicon Valley tech companies would recognize the opportunity to design and build digital currencies designed to eventually scale to replace the USD as global reserve currency
  • Facebook’s LIBRA announcement confirmed Erik’s prediction
  • Erik says putting Mark Zuckerberg in charge of how money works is a really, really BAD idea!
  • Roadmap for the Digital Currency Revolution which has already begun

LukeGromen

Today's All-Star Luke Gromen and Erik discuss: 

  • Policy developments since Luke’s May 28 All-Stars Appearance
  • Gold and Bitcoin are starting new bull moves; the Dollar is starting a new bear trend
  • Lael Brainard’s speech and why it’s so important to markets
  • Luke’s “bottom line” call for markets


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MACRO VOICES is presented for informational and entertainment purposes only. The information presented in MACRO VOICES should NOT be construed as investment advice. Always consult a licensed investment professional before making important investment decisions. The opinions expressed on MACRO VOICES are those of the participants. MACRO VOICES, its producers, and hosts Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna shall NOT be liable for losses resulting from investment decisions based on information or viewpoints presented on MACRO VOICES.

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