About Erik Townsend

hedge fund manager Erik Townsend

Erik Townsend is a retired software entrepreneur turned hedge fund manager. Throughout his career, Erik has capitalized on his ability to understand complex systems and anticipate paradigm shifts far in advance of the mainstream. Read More...

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Ronald Stöferle to MacroVoices. Erik and Ronald discuss:

  • Is now the time to focus on secular shift in precious metals?
  • Secular shift to inflation or stagflation – what would that mean for precious metals?
  • How does this pandemic compare to the recession of 2008
  • The impact of weak commodities on precious metals
  • Can gold substitute for bonds in portfolios?
  • Impacts of strong USD on gold
  • Perspectives on mining stocks
  • Outlook on silver
  • Bitcoin vs. Gold
  • Are we due for a technical correction?

Download the podcast transcript: [Click Here]

We strongly recommend that you download the report that accompanies this episode, as Erik and Ronald will refer to it throughout the interview. If you are already registered at MacroVoices.com, just login and the download link will appear here once you're logged in. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

Click here to register or login for access to supporting materials.

 

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All-Star Dr. Pippa Malmgren and Erik discuss:

  • Shape of the economic recovery: Why “Letter Shapes” like V, W, L, and U are insufficient to describe what will occur
  • How financial markets will react to multiple recovery scenarios in the real economy
  • U.S.-China relations in the post-COVID19 world
  • State of the art in industrial drone technology

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Daniel Lacalle to MacroVoices. Erik and Daniel discuss:

  • What kind of recovery should we expect post-COVID19?
  • Is this the top of the bear market rally or will we test new all-time highs again?
  • Has the central banks largesse gone as far as it can go?
  • Are we heading from secular deflation to secular inflation?
  • Will the west’s indebtedness lead to “Japanification” 
  • US dollar losing its reserve currency status – what would that entail?
  • Gold outlook post-crisis
  • Can all fiat currencies be devalued at the same time?

 

Download the podcast transcript: [Click Here]

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this episode, as Erik and Daniel will refer to it throughout the interview. If you are already registered at MacroVoices.com, just login and the download link will appear here once you're logged in. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

Click here to register or login for access to supporting materials.

 

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Erik Townsend Scott Lynn to MacroVoices. Erik and Scott discuss:

  • Fine Art as an asset class: Why some of the biggest names in finance are diversifying into Fine Art collections
  • Performance and correlation characteristics of Fine Art in Portfolio Construction
  • Why “Blue Chip” Fine Art (most famous and well-known artists) delivers the best investment returns
  • The Securitization Model: Fractional ownership of fine art masterpieces through securitized holding companies

 

Download the podcast transcript: [Click Here

 

 

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All-Star Juliette Declercq and Erik discuss:

  • Deflation vs. Inflation
  • Is it MMT that makes the difference between depression and reflation?
  • Equity market outlook after the COVID-19 crisis

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Dr. Ben Hunt to MacroVoices. Erik and Dr. Hunt discuss:

  • Three narratives of Coronavirus crisis
  • Is the recent monetary & fiscal response to COVID-19 leading us from deflation to inflation? 
  • Will the Federal Reserve Act have to change?
  • Frontline Heroes- how did it start and how can others help?

     Donate to Frontline Heroes  

Download the podcast transcript: [Click Here]

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this episode, as Erik and Patrick will refer to it throughout postgame. If you are already registered at MacroVoices.com, just login and the download link will appear here once you're logged in. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

Click here to register or login for access to supporting materials.

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All-Star Brent Johnson and Erik discuss:

  • U.S. Dollar Outlook – Why Brent still forecasts an upside resolution to the USD consolidation
  • S&P 500 forecast
  • Gold & Gold Miners
  • Commodities outlook

Supporting Materials for Download

All-Stars #104 Brent Johnson Chartbook May 11 2020

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Lakshman Achuthan to MacroVoices. Erik and Lakshman discuss:

  • What cycle should we focus on amidst the crisis
  • 3D’s of recession: Depth, Diffusion, Duration
  • Exogenous shock factors: how is this recession different than others? 
  • Based on historic cycles, what should we expect next?
  • What can we learn from economic cycles as we try to get out of deflation?
  • Is coronavirus crisis becoming a catalyst to a US/China “cold war”? 

Download the podcast transcript: [Click Here]

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this episode, as Erik and Patrick will refer to it throughout postgame. If you are already registered at MacroVoices.com, just login and the download link will appear here once you're logged in. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

Click here to register or login for access to supporting materials.

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Dr. Lacy Hunt to MacroVoices. Erik and Dr. Hunt discuss:

  • Core thesis on interest rates and inflation
  • Constraints on zero bound interest rates in the US
  • How do you invest in this zero bound interest rate environment?
  • How to interpret FED policy on inflation
  • Perspectives on the FED bailing out the high yield market
  • Will the Federal Reserve be allowed to print money?

Download the podcast transcript: [Click Here]

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this episode, as Erik and Patrick will refer to it throughout postgame. If you are already registered at MacroVoices.com, just login and the download link will appear here once you're logged in. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

Click here to register or login for access to supporting materials.

 

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All-Star Jeff Snider and Erik discuss:

  • Bank reserves fall under an outdated definition of "base money", therefore it isn't clear what an increase in bank reserves actually signifies.
  • Beginning with inflation expectations, if the Fed was printing money then its missing from the bond market; TIPS suggest crisis level lows for short run and long run inflation conditions (deflation, in other words)
  • Despite that $1.5 trillion, LIBOR remains crucially elevated; TED spread behaving just like 2008
  • You're not supposed to question what central banks actually do, because if you think through the actual process you'll see there's far less than you're made to believe (belief is what matters in modern monetary policy)

Supporting Materials for Download

Not Money Printing - GFC2: The Bowl's Empty 

MACRO VOICES is presented for informational and entertainment purposes only. The information presented in MACRO VOICES should NOT be construed as investment advice. Always consult a licensed investment professional before making important investment decisions. The opinions expressed on MACRO VOICES are those of the participants. MACRO VOICES, its producers, and hosts Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna shall NOT be liable for losses resulting from investment decisions based on information or viewpoints presented on MACRO VOICES.

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