finance

  • An Interview with Legendary Investor Jim Rogers

    Erik Townsend welcomes legendary investor Jim Rogers as MacroVoices’ first feature interview. Erik and Jim discuss China, falling currencies around the world, the coming market turmoil and its tactical bullish implications for the U.S. dollar, even in the face of longer-term bearish forces that will also affect the dollar, U.S. monetary policy and the failure of Quantitative Easing, weakness in the banking sector despite massive injections of liquidity, the 35-year bond bull market and its eventual end, current trouble in high-yield credit (junk bonds), whether the recent breakout in gold prices is sustainable or a parabolic surge that could lead to a blow-off top, U.S. debt levels, implications of the upcoming U.S. Presidential election on markets, sovereign debt crises, de-dollarization, and much more.

  • Art Berman: Labor Day Weekend Oil Special

    Erik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Art Berman to MacroVoices. Erik and Art discuss looking beyond absolute inventory numbers and gleaning insights from comparative inventories, continued time-spread compression reflecting producer hedging or lack of concern for a storage crisis, feedback loop of insanity in inventory builds and production, and much more.

  • Art Berman: Oil Fundamentals Deep Dive Redux

    Arthur Berman largeErik Townsend welcomes Art Berman to MacroVoices. Erik and Art discuss:

    • Their calls made on Episode 3 of MacroVoices in February
    • Which fundamental factors have changed since then
    • The damage done to the supply of capital available to shale drillers in spite of oil rising to $50
    • Current US production levels and where they may be headed from here
    • Prices moving up in the face of dangerously high inventory levels at Cushing, OK
    • Using Comparitive Inventories to predict price movements
    • The 'funny' accounting practiced by shale drilling companies and many analysts
    • EIA price forecasts and whether or not they are accurate
    • Geopolitically driven supply disruptions and whether or not they will last
    • Middle Eastern oil production increases and alongside a shifting political picture
    • The possibility of a future where the world can't afford petroleum, and much more...

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  • Art Berman: Oil Fundamentals Deep Dive Redux

    Erik interviews petroleum geologist Art Berman in his second appearance on MacroVoices as they revisit some of their fundamental analysis from Episode 3 back in February

  • Art Berman: OPEC Production Cut, Crude Oil Outlook

    Erik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Art Berman to MacroVoices. Erik and Art discuss OPEC's latest production cut agreement and what it means, false conception of cutting production to bring balance to an already-balanced market, how excess oil in storage will suppress prices for some time to come, weak demand growth similar to late-2014 won't support higher prices, OPEC not being as desperate as portrayed by the media, and much more.

  • Art Berman: Shale Gas Magical Thinking And The Reality of Low Gas Prices

  • Art Berman: The market has de-valued the oil price yield curve

    Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Art Berman back to MacroVoices. Erik and Art discuss comparative inventory and inventory correlation to price on oil. They further look at price cycles, the oil-price yield curve and the impact of U.S. exporting oil. They further discuss why backwardation is collapsing on WTI, sensitivities to supply concerns and the discrepancies between IEA and OPEC forecasts.

  • Axel Merk: ECB/Fed/BOJ Policy and the Implications for Equities, Gold, the USD and More

    Erik welcomes Axel Merk and the two of them discuss recent central bank statements and how we can expect them to affect financial markets.

  • Axel Merk: ECB/Fed/BOJ Policy and the Implications for Equities, Gold, the USD and More

    2014 02 13 Axel headshotErik Townsend welcomes Axel Merk to MacroVoices. Erik and Axel discuss:

    • The ECB, Fed, and BOJ statements and how policies are shifting
    • The upward trajectory of the Euro following a confusing ECB statement
    • The key differences between central banking in the US, and the Eurozone
    • TLTRO2: "a funding for lending scheme" - how does it work, what does it mean?
    • A potential bottoming in European interest rates
    • Will a Fed rate hike mean a stronger dollar, or have markets already priced this in?
    • The Fed members, structure, focus and process
    • Coming headwinds for asset prices as the Fed unwinds an unprecedented easing cycle
    • The counterproductivity of negative interest rates and extraordinary central bank policy
    • The Dollar rally - how did we get here and is the rally over?
    • Gold and other "safe havens" - where can investors hide in this challenging environment?

     

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  • Barry Ritholtz: Quantitative tightening is not a good reason to be bearish

    Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Barry Ritholtz to MacroVoices. Erik and Barry start by defining bull and bear markets and discuss the bullish case for equities. They proceed to discuss the U.S Dollar, interest rate trends, junk bonds and the China credit risks. They then take a deep dive into populism, the growing trends in socialism, crony capitalism and what is wrong with MMT. Special post game guest Charlie McElligott.

  • Bill Fleckenstein: The Perils of Short Selling in a World Awash in Central Bank Liquidity

    Erik interviews Bill Fleckenstein and they discuss the tactics involved in short selling, and the dangers of doing so in a market fueled by central bank liquidity.

  • Bill Fleckenstein: The Perils of Short Selling in a World Awash in Central Bank Liquidity

    Fleckenstein3Erik Townsend welcomes Bill Fleckenstein to MacroVoices. Erik and Bill discuss:

    • A coming correction in equities - what's different this time?
    • "The fumes of QE" and non-US sources of liquidity
    • The tactics one must necessarily employ to succed in short selling
    • 20 years of failed activist Fed policy
    • A potential bond market revolt and an end to the dollar bull market
    • The real rate of inflation and the irrelevance of the CPI
    • The destruction of the middle class by central bankers and politicians
    • The time to be short vs. the time to be patient
    • Gold, gold miners, and the end of the bear market in precious metals
    • Plus Erik's market recap and his own insights into short selling
    • and plenty more...

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  • Brent Johnson: A big dollar rally could drag stocks higher with it

    Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Brent Johnson to MacroVoices. Erik and Brent discuss Brent’s “Dollar Milkshake Theory”, short term and long term outlook on gold, and what impacts the dollar breakout will have on US and the global economy.

  • Charles Biderman: The Monetary Policy Endgame

    Erik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Charles Biderman to MacroVoices. Erik and Charles discuss big picture and current market contexts beginning from Post-WW2, flight capital impact on U.S. markets, backstory related to sub-advisor relationship with and termination from AdvisorShares, and much more.

  • Charles Gave: Our Industry is NOT prepared for secular inflation!

    Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Charles Gave to MacroVoices. Erik and Charles discuss the corporate yield curve and what it is telling us about the equity market. They then delve into the Hong Kong dollar peg and perspective on China’s debt and related risks. They further discuss the risk parity trade with bonds and stocks selling off simultaneously and the return of secular inflation. They look at the upcoming monetary war and how gold will play the arbiter”. They further look into what happened in the 70’s with inflation and how one can prepare for the return of secular inflation.

  • Charlie McElligott: Fear the Steepener

    Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Charlie McElligott back to MacroVoices. Erik and Charlie discuss the china credit impulse and PBoC liquidity operations. The discuss if this is a bear market rally or continuation of bull market and fading the Fed’s economic optimism. They update CTA positioning across asset classes and positioning in risk parity funds. They finally end with a conversation on the yield curve steepener.

  • Charlie McElligott: Phase one is over. The easy money has already been made.

    Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Charlie McElligott to Macrovoices. Erik and Charlie discuss the curve steepener as a recession signal and the current impact that the dollar, real rates and inflation expectations have on the markets. They further touch on the Chinese credit/financing impulse and the late cycle behavior from autos and homebuilders. They discuss the yield curve, the Nabe wage surveys, unemployment and what they tell us about future recessions.

  • Charlie McElligott: The opportunity will be found selling puts. But not yet!

    Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Charlie McElligott to MacroVoices. Erik and Charlie discuss the impact of policy change on the yield curve, the drivers of volatility in rates, and futures driven equity unwind and more.

  • Chris Cole: The ‘BIG ONE’ (Vol event) hasn’t happened yet.

    Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Chris Cole back to MacroVoices. Erik and Chris dissect the Vol crash in February 2018 and the implicit/explicit short vol risks. They then put perspective on the next phase of the short vol unwind and the impacts of the reduction of central bank balance sheets. They further discuss the link between volatility and the credit cycle and the stock/bond correlation.

  • Chris Cole: Volatility and the Alchemy of Risk

    Erik Townsend welcomes Chris Cole to MacroVoices. Erik and Chris discuss all things about underlying risks in the current low volatility market. They discuss share buybacks, the explicit vs implicit short vol positions and the impact of risk parity, VAR control, funds. The look at the potential impact of the unwind in the short VIX trade and why the scenarios echo the period prior to the 1987 market drop.

MACRO VOICES is presented for informational and entertainment purposes only. The information presented in MACRO VOICES should NOT be construed as investment advice. Always consult a licensed investment professional before making important investment decisions. The opinions expressed on MACRO VOICES are those of the participants. MACRO VOICES, its producers, and hosts Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna shall NOT be liable for losses resulting from investment decisions based on information or viewpoints presented on MACRO VOICES.

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