Transcripts
Erik: Joining me now is Diego Parrilla, a portfolio manager for Quadriga Asset Management and best selling author of the books, "The Anti-Bubbles" and "The Energy World is Flat". Diego it's great to have you back on the program. A man who follows energy markets and whether or not they're flat or not, I gotta believe is thinking about inflation. But I'd rather have you tell me you're a deflationist because we can't seem to find any smart deflationist left. Let's start with inflation versus deflation. How do you see the whole story?
Diego Parrilla: Well, thank you for having me back. Look, I think the endgame is inflation for sure. But what is very important to understand is they're very very strong forces in both directions. Clearly, on the deflationary side, we're dealing with, you know, potentially unemployment. Obviously, the economy is recovering but still lagging substantially. We have technological benefits and considerations that are deflationary. We have demographics, we have overcapacity, we have malinvestment, we have potential bubbles, which are hugely deflationary. So all these things point one way, however, there's just one thing, or one major force on the other side, which is money printing in the trillions. That is basically more than offsetting them all and beyond. So it's almost as if the more deflation in the system, the bigger of an excuse, and the more room, central banks have to print or try to print their way out.
Erik: Joining me now is Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy for Saxo Bank. Ole has prepared a slide deck in association with today's interview.
Registered users will find the download link in your research roundup email. If you don't have a research roundup email, it means you're not yet registered at macrovoices.com. Just go to our homepage macrovoices.com, click the red button above Ole's picture and right below the green donate button that says looking for the downloads.
Ole it's great to have you back on the podcast, boy commodities, kind of forgotten it seems by most people in the macro world for the last few years, and all of a sudden Whammo, it seems as if the commodity sector overall has bottomed and reversed quite vigorously. Would you agree with that assessment? And how would you describe the macro drivers? What's going on here? Is it just a bump? Is it a dead cat bounce? Are we really seeing a secular return to a commodity bull market?
Erik:
Joining me now is Lyn Alden, founder of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy. And the title of Lyn's slide deck, which I strongly encourage you to download is Fiscal Dominance.
Registered users will find the download link in your research roundup email. If you don't have a research roundup email, it means you're not registered yet at macrovoices.com. Just go to our homepage, macrovoices.com. Click the red button just above Lyn's picture, which says "looking for the downloads".
Lyn, before we get into the slide deck. I want to start with the big picture. We've been looking for a deflationist. I got a feeling that's not you, because you've been on the inflation theme for quite a while. But I'm curious. I know you listened to the show. What do you make of all the prominent deflationists flipping to inflation seems to me, like this is kind of a sign here. What do you make of this?
Erik:
Joining me now is GavekalCapital co-founder Louie Vincent Gave. Louis, great to have you back on the show. I want to start with the big one. We've had so many of our top macro experts turned into secular inflationist recently. We're really hoping you're a holdout on the deflation camp.
Louis-Vincent Gave:
Yeah, sorry, Erik. No, I'm as big as an inflationista as you're going to have on this show, I'm afraid.
Erik:
Tell us more. Why is that how you see it? We've heard quite a few different takes on this.
Louis-Vincent Gave:
First of all, thanks a bunch for having me. Happy Shrove Tuesday. And, you know, it's great to be on the show. If I'm not mistaken. Last time you and I spoke was the day that energy prices were negative 40. As we speak today, it seems like you and I are destined to talk when there's massive dislocations in energy. Because as we speak today, obviously, you have four and a half million people in Texas that are cut off the grid. Reflecting perhaps under-investments or mal-investments in the energy space. So maybe I'll start off with that. I mean, you know, when you look at inflation, there's many paths you can go down.
Erik:
Joining me now is Julian Brigden, founder of MI2 partners. Julian is known for his graphs and charts. So you're not gonna want to miss the chartdeck, which Julian prepared for today's interview. Registered users will find the download link in your research roundup email. If you don't have a research roundup email, that means you're not yet registered at macrovoices.com. Just go to our homepage, macrovoices.com, look for the red button that says looking for the downloads.
Julian, I want to say not quite a year ago, but last spring, as markets were bottoming, you turned super bullish and everybody said that, Julian, you're crazy. There's a global pandemic going on. What are you smoking in Colorado, dude? And sure enough, it seems that you've been right. I don't know that you perfectly nailed the timing of the bottom, but it was pretty darn close. And it has, of course been straight up ever since in the market, very consistent with your expectations. But, my big question to you, as we start to dive into the slide deck here is okay that was in the spring. But now that we're back to all time highs, new all time highs. Are you still bullish?
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