Transcripts
Erik: Joining me now is Ralph Delguidice, global macro strategist for Pavilion Global Markets. Ralph put together a terrific slide deck for today’s interview. You’ll find the download link in your Research Roundup email.
If you don’t have a Research Roundup email, that means you’re not yet registered. In that case, just go to our home page at macrovoices.com, look for the red button that says Looking for the Downloads? right next to Ralph’s picture on our home page.
Ralph, it’s great to have you on the show. I know that you are a regular listener. And I want to take advantage of that, because I know you’ve been listening to my interviews with Jeff Snider.
Something Jeff has said that just really threw me for a loop when he said it recently is he said, you know, really, we have to just accept that US Treasury bonds are not really an investment anymore. Big institutions need to have them as a balance sheet management tool, but they don’t make any sense as an investment.
And I thought about that after the fact. I thought, holy cow, what are all of the knock-on implications of the United States Treasury bond? You know, the full faith and backing of the United States government (cue the patriotic music), most safest, reliable investment on earth, and it’s not even an investment in Jeff’s eyes.
How did we get here? What does Jeff mean by that? And what’s the story of regulatory changes that have gotten us to this point?
Erik: Joining me now is petroleum geologist Art Berman.
Regular listeners already know it wouldn’t be an Art Berman interview without an Art Berman slide deck. You’ll find the download link for the Art Berman slide deck in your Research Roundup email. If you don’t have a Research Roundup email, that means you’re not yet registered at macrovoices.com. So just go to our home page at macrovoices.com, and look for the red button that says Looking for the Download? next to Art’s picture.
Art, it’s great to get you back.
Before we dive into your excellent slide deck, I want to start with the big picture.
First of all, I want to congratulate you. When we last had you on the show just before Christmas, you were getting very, very sharply criticized for an article you had just published called “The Oil Rally Won’t Last.”
And at that point we’re at $61. A whole bunch of people were saying, hey, we’re headed to $90. This is it, this is the big one.
Erik: Joining me now is our first feature interview guest this week, Julian Brigden, founder of Macro Intelligence 2 Partners.
And of course Julian is famous for his terrific macro slide decks. He has prepared another of those for today’s interview. We strongly encourage you to download that handout from the Research Roundup email, where you can find the link.
If you don’t have a Research Roundup email, which means you’re not yet registered at MacroVoices, just go to our home page at macrovoices.com, look for the red button that says Looking for the Downloads? next to Julian’s picture.
Julian, it’s great to have you back. Before we dive into your slide deck, it’s an FOMC week. Let’s talk about the FOMC statement and market reaction to it.
What’s your take?
Erik: Joining me now is Russell Napier, who of course is the founder of ERIC – not my name, Erik with a K – but Eric with a C, an acronym for the Electronic Research Interchange. And of course it is a very prominent website for the sale of institutional research to institutional investors.
Russell, it’s great to have you back on the program.
You know, ever since the 2008 financial crisis, I’ve predicted that eventually this response of encouraging even more borrowing would eventually set us up for another credit crisis in the United States. Well, so far, I’m either very, very early or very, very wrong. And of course in this business, very early equals very wrong.
Is there objective reason – I know that you are much more deeply in touch with the data than I am – to expect another credit crisis either in the United States or elsewhere in the world?
Erik: Joining me now is Grant Williams, the editor and publisher of Things That Make You Go Hmmm, perhaps one of the best-regarded newsletters in the industry.
Grant, something that has gotten my attention and I know has yours, and it has the attention of I think the smartest people in the investment industry, is not really just about investments. It’s about using our skills as investors to recognize there’s things going on in the world that are a really big deal. And they have investment implications for sure.
But the social implications, I think, are more important. Give us a quick outline, for those people who don’t read your newsletter, what’s on your mind with respect to civil unrest and the social fabric degradation that’s going on around the world?
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