Raoul PalErik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Raoul Pal to MacroVoices. Erik and Raoul discuss:

  • Structural issues in LIBOR and Eurodollar markets as bullish for USD
  • Outlook for Treasuries given recent sell-off in bonds
  • Update on Raoul's business cycle framework
  • 100% probability of recession following 2-term U.S. presidencies
  • Recent spat of "Billionbears" coming to the forefront with downside calls
  • Brexit contagion spreading into the rest of Europe
  • Crowded risk-parity trades and reasons behind all-time short-VIX open interest
  • Gold and USD pairs-trade timeline and expectations
  • Monetary policy and the Fed's growing irrelevancy
  • Precarious state of and systemic risk of the European banking sector
  • Potential moonshot in soft commodities due to weather cycles
  • Updates on new Realvision TV products and initiatives

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Raoul Pal has previously co-managed the GLG Global Macro Fund in London for GLG Partners, one of the largest hedge fund groups in the world. He came to GLG from Goldman Sachs where he co-managed the hedge fund sales business in Equities and Equity Derivatives in Europe. Other stop-off points on the way were Natwest Markets and HSBC. He started his career training traders in technical analysis.

Raoul retired from managing client money in 2004 at the age of 36 and now writes for The Global Macro Investor, his flagship publication on global markets, and is a cofounder of Real Vision TV, the worlds first video on demand service for investors.