Macro Voices All-Stars

All-Star Dr. Pippa Malmgren and Erik discuss:

• Bail-out nation: Will the long list of bailout packages tip the economy into secular inflation?
• Unexpected knock-on effects: What aspects of society will change from the crisis and why?
• Bio-hazards and Bio-Weapons: Why do governments need bio-weapons laboratories and what if an accident led to another outbreak?

All-Star Louis-Vinecnt Gave and Erik discuss:

• Why Asia and Europe had such profoundly different outcomes from the COVID19 Pandemic
• Three crisis for the price of one: Why markets are currently experiencing three separate crises at once
• Coming challenges for Europe

All-Star Luke Gromen and Erik discuss:

• The world is massively short USD and the only way out of this crisis is for the Fed to buy trillions of dollars of debt. Otherwise asset markets will crash.
• How much is enough? Luke says in theory if the economy shuts down completely, the Fed would have to buy “all” the outstanding debt. That’s $47tn!
• How is Luke positioned for what’s on the horizon?

All-Star Jeff Snider and Erik discuss:

• Despite modern complexities in finance and money, the basic issue is old fashioned currency elasticity. Central banks are not suited for it, and the results are obvious now.
• September's repo event said that money dealers when faced with irregularities would sit on the sidelines regardless of Fed action. They are definitely sitting on the sidelines.
• Market liquidations come down to repo market - on the collateral side.
• Stocks, rates, credit, gold, crude; all these asset classes joined by the same factor.
• QE's are coming not because they work but because that's what central banks do. Bureaucracies care more for their routines than the results.  

Supporting Materials for Download

Jeff Snider Chartbook: Elasticity - But What is the Currency 

                                                                 Jeff Snider: Since 2008 major turning points in Gold have been punctuated by Eurodollar anomalies

All-Star Juliette and Erik discuss:

• Juliette’s analysis of market risks created by the COVID-19 pandemic
• Understanding why serious complication rate is (economically) more important than case fatality rate or mortality rate
• Juliette’s guidance on translating these views to actionable trading strategies

Supporting Materials for Download

A real macroeconomic plague - MARCH 2020 

All-Star Brent Johnson and Erik discuss:

• Dollar update: Still in a long-term uptrend despite recent weakness
• Why Brent would buy stocks hand over fist if we see another 10% sell-off from here
• Why gold has been weak despite bullish fundamentals, and outlook for precious metals

Supporting Materials for Download

Brent Johnson Chartbook - MacroVoices All-Stars 03 04 2020

All-Star Jeff Snider and Erik discuss:

• Why Jeff’s indicators showed a global slowdown before the Coronavirus story emerged in the news
• Dollar-positive effects of the global Eurodollar system are in play, independent of the virus story
• Why dollar strength is a bad thing, not a good thing, and what to expect from here

Supporting Materials for Download

Jeff Snider MacroVoices 2020 02 26

All-Star Luke Gromen and Erik discuss:

• Why this story has gotten little attention since first breaking in September 2019
• Why Luke thinks the U.S. Government wants higher gold prices, an about-face from prior stance
• Gold market outlook – why Luke is still bullish Gold, Silver and Bitcoin
• Economic implications of Coronavirus on global supply chain

All-Star Jeff Snider and Erik discuss:

• Why didn’t the August yield curve inversion lead to a recession (so far)?
• Eurodollar curve inversion started before UST inversion
• Forward-looking economic outlook

Supporting Materials for Download

Jeff Snider Chartbook MacroVoices 2020 02 04 

All-Star Dr. Pippa Malmgren and Erik discuss:

• Pippa weighs in on the Coronavirus outbreak in China, still sees bull market ahead for risk assets
• Reactions to Kyle Bass’ allegations that China is mining U.S. genetic mapping data for nefarious purposes
• Pippa’s U.S. election outlook

All-Star Juliette Declercq and Erik discuss:

• Update on Juliette’s outlook – still cautiously bullish
• Manufacturing stagnation vs. services outlook
• Central bank impotence and its impact on markets
• Juliette’s assessment of the 2019-nCoV Coronavirus and its likely impact on markets

All-Star Louis-Vincent Gave and Erik discuss:

• The “melt-up” has been driven by five primary macro drivers. All of them will come under pressure in 2020
• Why Warren Buffet’s underperformance in 2019 is an important market signal
• Where Louis will invest the chips he takes off the table from the stock market at record highs

All-Star Jeff Snider and Erik discuss:

• “Not QE”, Repo Bailouts & more: Where does it end and why is it necessary to start with?
• Reconciling improved unemployment reports with Jeff’s criticisms of CB policy
• Distinguishing R* from true Economic Potential
• The real causes of slack in the economy and underperformance against economic potential

Supporting Materials for Download

The R-star Fallacy: There Are No Strong Dollars 

All-Star Brent Johnson and Erik discuss:

• U.S. Dollar review and outlook
• Why Brent remains long-term bullish on stocks but thinks the market may be overbought at current levels
• Short vs. long-term outlook for Gold

Supporting Materials for Download

MacroVoices All-Stars #87 Brent Johnson Chartbook - 01 06 2020 

All-Star Luke Gromen and Erik discuss:

• Luke’s prediction from November 11^th: What if the Repo Spike was the “risk off event everyone was waiting for”?
• Why Luke believes the event already happened and we’ve entered a new era of “Whatever it Takes” for the U.S. Federal Reserve
• Luke’s outlook for stocks, bonds, precious metals and crypto

All-Star Jeff Snider and Erik discuss:

• Reviewing how we got here (datapoints from 2017 and 2018 thru 2019)
• Another terrific chart deck
• Jeff’s outlook for 2020

Supporting Materials for Download

It Is A Eurodollar World 2 : There Are No Strong Dollars - Jeff Snider 2019 12 23 

Anatomy of the US Dollar End Game 

Out Of The Onion Wars, Why Are There Only Losers? 

All-Star Louis-Vincent Gave and Erik discuss:

• What’s driving the S&P 500 Christmas Rally and what lies ahead
• Apple’s outperformance, what it means, and how it relates to the trade war
• The return of inflation and what it means for markets
• Gold outlook

All-Star Jeff Snider and Erik discuss:

• Comparing the popular narrative of rapidly improving sentiment with global dollar liquidity indicators
• Beyond Trade Wars and Trump Tweets: What liquidity indicators are actually telling us about the global economic outlook
• The “King Dollar” meme: Why a strong USD doesn’t necessarily imply U.S. economic outperformance

Supporting Materials for Download

It Is A Eurodollar World : There Are No Strong Dollars - Jeff Snider 2019 12 09 

Reuters article: BIS on Causes of Repo Shock 

BIS Quarterly Review 

All-Star Dr. Pippa Malmgren and Erik discuss:

• The real reason the Hong Kong protests have centered on Hong Kong Polytechnic University
• Faith in large institutions and the complacency of investors relative to associated risks
• Why Pippa remains bullish on technology innovation and global growth despite geopolitical risks

All-Star Brent Johnson and Erik discuss:

• Two potential trajectories for the U.S. Dollar Index
• Why Brent thinks stocks still have higher to go, even from these lofty levels
• China, trade deal, and currency rate component of the trade deal
• Canadian Interest Rates
• Gold outlook

Supporting Materials for Download

All-Stars #81 Brent Johnson Slidedeck