Macro Voices All-Stars

All-Star Jeff Snider and Erik discuss:

• How last week’s repo rate blowout fits into the narrative Jeff has been engaging MacroVoices listeners in for weeks
• Debunking the “It’s just transitory technical factors” explanation offered by Jay Powell
• Primary dealers are inexplicably hoarding safe-haven assets. We need to ask why?
• Discussion of what this might mean and what may be coming
• The significance of underlying systemic funding pressures and what it has already meant to this point. 

Supporting Materials for Download

Funding Pressures - Something Doesn't Seem Right 

All-Star Julian Brigden and Erik discuss:

• Can the Fed still save us from a recession?
• Bond market outlook – has the trend reversed?
• Geopolitical developments last weekend

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All-Star Dr. Pippa Malmgren and Erik discuss:

• Why Abqaiq has always been a key security vulnerability and why it was targeted
• Why Pippa doesn’t think the end result will be as bad as the market seems to initially fear
• Outlook for how this situation could evolve, and how Russia and China may eventually come into the mix
• Why Pippa remains bullish equity markets

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All-Star Louis-Vincent Gave and Erik discuss:

• What happened last Monday and why it’s an important signal
• Why the Stock and Bond markets may not be delivering contradicting signals after all
• Hong Kong update
• Gold outlook

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All-Star Dr. Anas Alhajji and Erik discuss:

• Saudi Arabia Power Shuffle: Why all the recent changes in ministers and what it means to markets
• Khalid al Falih’s legacy
• OPEC report summary and outlook for JMMC meeting
• Russian forecast for $25 oil in 2020
• John Bolton’s firing and the dramatic drop in oil prices which ensued
• IEA Forecast (not yet published) and JMMC Outlook

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All-Star Danielle DiMartino-Booth and Erik discuss:

• Danielle explains why the U.S. Labor market isn’t as healthy as Powell’s recent speech would lead us to believe
• Free sample issue of Danielle’s subscriber letter containing a full description of her arguments
• Mark Carney’s pitch for a “multi-polar” reserve currency at Jackson Hole

The Daily Feather - Deadpool of Labor

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All-Star Prof. Steve Keen and Erik discuss:

• Why China lowered their RRR
• Implications for markets and the economy
• Great chart book accompanies interview

China RRR Gambit 

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All-Star Juliette Declercq and Erik discuss:

• What to expect from the ECB on Thursday this week
• Juliette’s detailed prescriptions for fixing monetary policy
• Juliette’s market outlook

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All-Star Brent Johnson and Erik discuss:

• Why the U.S. Dollar is even stronger than most people realize
• Gold breakout and what comes next
• Equity outlook

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All-Star Luke Gromen and Erik discuss:

• Oct 12, 2018: A date few noticed but we all should: The USD “insurance” market effectively went no-offer
• Why FX-hedged relative yields are so important
• Consequences of FX-hedged UST yields turning negative
• Where we stand: 7^th, 8^th or 9^th inning?
• The mechanics: What should we expect from markets when the Fed is forced to monetize deficits?

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All-Star Prof. Steve Keen and Erik discuss:

• Erik’s book and recent videos’ central prediction is that the USD will eventually be replaced as global reserve currency by a global digital reserve currency system
• Steve’s take: Central Bankers often make their boldest moves on their way OUT of office
• Steve thinks the rest of the world is more than ready for the USD to be displaced by something else as reserve currency
• Steve & Erik lament about Carney’s reference to Facebook’s Libra as the digital currency system to model a global reserve currency system on

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All-Star Jeff Snider and Erik discuss: 

• Jeff explains why banks are willing to pay thru the nose for negative-yielding sovereign debt
• If sovereign bonds serve as an insurance policy for the banking system, what do they see coming they need to insure against?
• Why the problem is not really term premia, as Janet Yellen recently suggested
• Graphs and charts are presented as evidence against the term premia argument
• Why Gold is up so much despite dollar strength
• The Long Eurodollar Futures trade and why it’s become so popular lately

Jeff Snider Chartbook 2019 08 26 

Collateral Reserves: What Is Behind Record Low and Negative Yields 

                                                                  Eurodollar University: Diagramming Repo Reserves And Negative Yields

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All-Star Dr. Pippa Malmgren and Erik discuss:

• Big picture macro outlook
• Why Pippa thinks it’s not as bad as many fear
• Why pensions will rush in to buy treasuries if China really divests its holdings en masse
• Why Pippa predicts more Boomers will go back to work in coming years

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All-Star Luke Gromen and Erik discuss:

• Recap of Luke’s viewpoints expressed in prior All-Stars Interviews for context
• Why USD liquidity squeeze explains apparent disagreement between stock and bond markets
• Why this is a U.S. Fiscal problem in the making, despite crashing bond yields
• Luke’s outlook for risk assets

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All-Star Prof. Steve Keen and Erik discuss:

• Update on Steve’s recession outlook for U.S. in the wake of the yield curve inversion
• Balance sheet recessions 
• Are negative interest rates evidence of central bank policy errors?
• The “wildcard factor”: China

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All-Star Louis-Vincent Gave and Erik discuss:

• History and drivers of the protests in Hong Kong and their implications in financial markets
• Gold breakout and what comes next
• Bonds and gold: Safety trade assets are clearly catching a bid!
• So why hasn’t the S&P 500 taken the hint when other global stock markets clearly have?

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All-Star Jeff Snider and Erik discuss:

• Why there’s more to the yuan devaluation story that meets the eye (or the mainstream narrative)
• Comparison to prior devaluations and analysis of true driving forces
• Why China’s U.S. Treasury holdings are encumbered and selling them doesn have the effects most people assume
• China’s behind-the-scenes derivatives-based USD “War Chest”
• Is China really manipulating its currency, and what are the consequences?

Jeff Snider Chartbook August 12 2019 

CNY 7 The Gears Behind the Clockface

The Aid of TIC In Sorting Shorts and Shortages

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All-Star Luke Gromen and Erik discuss:

• Central Bank Gold Agreement (CBGA) not renewed for first time in 20 years
• Yet central banks around the world are buying gold hand over fist!
• Luke’s take on what’s driving this and why it’s so important
• Fundamental case for gold (review) and is this a good time to buy?

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All-Star Brent Johnson and Erik discuss:

• Why Brent remains convinced the USD has much higher to go
• The case for gold, and analysis of recent moves in reaction to the Trump China Tweet
• U.S. Stock market outlook

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All-Star Juliette Declercq and Erik discuss:

•  The fed needed to take action in response to tightening global Dollar liquidity squeezing the USD higher, which will cause serious problems if not addressed.
• They had their chance last week, but blew it!
• In a rare moment of agreement with Donald Trump, Juliette says Powell should be fired!
• Great graphs and charts support Juliette’s entire narrative
• Despite these developments, Juliette believes recent dollar strength is still ultimately unsustainable

Juliette Declercq Chartbook August 5 2019 

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