Macro Voices Podcasts

male silhouette.Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Simon White to MacroVoices. Erik and Simon discuss:

  • Variant Perception data driven approach
  • Something's got to give
  • Where leading indicators are pressuring USD
  • Outlook on US equities and bonds
  • Perspective on the Fed's cut to its IOER
  • Collateral, lending conditions and tighter bank-credits
  • China, liquidity and growth
  • External headwinds remain growth impediment

 

 

 

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male silhouette.Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Charlie McElligott to MacroVoices. Erik and Charlie discuss:

  • Impact of policy change on the yield curve
  • Drivers of volatility in rates
  • Fed taking the pro-inflationary stance
  • Futures driven equity unwind
  • CTA positioning on the SPX
  • SPX/SPY/QQQ Gamma/Delta extremes
  • Consolidated Gamma flip
  • VVIX and VIX positioning
  • Vol is either "too high" or S&P should be a lot lower
  • Buyside embrace economic pessimism

 

 

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, as Erik and Charlie will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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male silhouette.Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Juliette Declercq to MacroVoices. Erik and Juliette discuss:

  • Current status of inflation
  • The FED's inflation framework and its credibility
  • How the FED is failing to meet its inflation mandate
  • Lower rates and its effect on the yield curve and inflation expectations
  • Possibility of a financial crash and economic downturn
  • FED-induced inflation shock and its effect on bond yields and risk asset valuations
  • How the higher break in the US dollar will affect inflation expectations and the FED's cutting cycle
  • What is ahead - policy path and inflation outlook
  • China/US trade negotiations and its effect on global liquidity and global reflation

 

 

 

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, as Erik and Juliette will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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male silhouette.Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Dr.Lacy Hunt to MacroVoices. Erik and Dr.Hunt discuss:

  • Outlook on US economy and the global economy
  • Synchronized global downturn and risks of a recession
  • Zero bound for policy rates and its risk
  • How long can the system sustain in a ZIRP environment
  • Debt induced weakness undermining growth rate
  • What's next, quantitative easing or debt monetization
  • Perspective on the FEDs ability to print money
  • Destabilization of the global monetary system
  • Where to position trades on the bond yield curve
  • Deflationary risks in this environment
  • Perspectives on Modern Monetary Theory

 

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male silhouette.Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Jeff Snider to MacroVoices. Erik and Jeff discuss:

  • The definition and the history of Eurodollar
  • Eurodollar as global reserve currency
  • Who really governs US dollar
  • Interbank borrowing, shadow money and Eurodollar transactions
  • Bretton Woods gold exchange system vs. Eurodollar system
  • How the global economy and the global financial system depend on Eurodollar system
  • The breakdown of Eurodollar system and the Great Global Monetary Crisis
  • The Eurodollar squeeze and its effect on the global system
  • Correlation between the Eurodollar squeeze and the US dollar index

 

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, as Erik and Jeff will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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PROFESSOR STEVE KEEN headshotErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Prof. Steve Keen to MacroVoices. Erik and Steve discuss:

  • Benefits of the U.S. losing its reserve currency status
  • International trade and deindustrialization of U.S.
  • U.S. Government budget and trade deficits
  • Possible fiscal crisis and the increase of US Treasury Yields
  • Devaluation of the dollar, imports and inflation shock
  • Risk of global currency to replace the US dollar as the world's reserve currency
  • Consequences of decrease in demand for US dollar
  • Runaway inflation and runaway trade deficit
  • Government spending, current inequality in income tax system
  • Risks and opportunities of MMT

 

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Howe HeadshotErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Neil Howe to MacroVoices. Erik and Neil discuss:

  • Insights from Neil on how the Fourth Turning is unfolding
  • Climax’s at the end of the Fourth Turning
  • Socialism, populism and extremism in politics
  • What is in store for the second half of the fourth turning
  • Current economic expansion is running out of workers
  • Effect of population composition
  • Late-cycle dynamics and real GDP growth trends
  • Correlations of term spreads and consumer confidence
  • Term spreads, credit cycles and volatility
  • Demographic trends for the long-term future

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, as Erik and Neil will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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Eric Peters HeadshotErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Eric Peteres to MacroVoices. Erik and Eric discuss:

  • Where are the equity markets heading next?
  • What are the biggest risks in the markets today?
  • Considerations on volatility on FX and interest rates.
  • Will the current trend in Treasury yields continue?
  • How will the next 10 years economically look?
  • Eric Peters perspective on MMT
  • Where are the China/US relations going?
  • Rise of populism around the world
  • Growth of U.S. Isolationism

SPECIAL POST GAME GUEST- Juliette Declercq - Financial Repression ThemeJulietteDeclercqHeadshot 125x

  • Perspective on the Fed pivot
  • What is the trade in this market environment

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David Rosenberg headshot 250Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome David Rosenberg back to MacroVoices. Erik and David discuss:

  • Thoughts on the Fed policy shift
  • Is the market still in a topping formation?
  • Are we in an earnings recession?
  • How low will yields go on Treasury Bonds?
  • Has the MMT crowd discovered something new?
  • Will we see helicopter money during the next downturn?
  • What can go wrong with the implementation of Modern Monetary Theory?
  • Looking back to the Ben Bernanke playbook from 2002
  • What is in store for the corporate bond market?

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, as Erik and David will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register. Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

Free Trial to Breakfast with Dave

The Big Picture Trading Post Game Chart Book

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Arthur Berman largeErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Art Berman back to MacroVoices. Erik and Art discuss:

  • Oil price collapse was more than a correction
  • World production surplus for 2019-2020
  • Asking if OPEC matters anymore?
  • U.S. Oil production
  • Trends in world liquid production
  • Perspective on the Brent and WTI curves
  • Why is Brent trading at a premium to WTI
  • Increasing short bets on oil
  • Future of U.S. E&P companies
  • Cost of drilling wells

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Art will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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BarryRitholtzErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Barry Ritholtz to MacroVoices. Erik and Barry discuss:

  • Defining Bull and Bear Markets
  • Bullish case for equities
  • Dollar still the best option
  • Where are interest rates heading?
  • Are junk bonds at risk?
  • China credit risk
  • Trends in populism and socialism
  • Crony Capitalism
  • What could go wrong with MMT?

SPECIAL POST GAME GUEST- Charlie McElligott - Ides of MarchCharles Mcelligott Headshot 125x

Quarterly Op-Ex Seasonality
Extremes in option $Delta (SPX, SPY and QQQ)
Resumption of buyback blackout window
Systematic trend models - sell triggers

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pippa malmgrenErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome back Pippa Malmgren to MacroVoices. Erik and Pippa discuss:

  • Perspective on the U.S./China Trade War
  • Is this about trade or the Korean peninsula?
  • Chinese strategy in the South China Sea
  • The future of Donald Trump
  • China and Russia relations
  • Future of hypersonic warfare
  • Trends in socialism and populism
  • Surveillance Capitalism
  • Outlook for the equity markets

 

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LukeGromenErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome back Luke Gromen to MacroVoices. Erik and Luke discuss:

  • Underlying motives & timing
  • Oil, Petrodollar, and global Treasury Holdings
  • Drivers behind the strong dollar
  • Vicious Cycle in US Balance of Payments
  • Timing the dollar endgame
  • How does the dollar bear market playout?
  • Entitlements and the trends in populism
  • Deflating the debt bubble
  • How does gold play into the story?
  • What are the range of possibilities for the debt crisis?

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SPECIAL POST GAME GUEST-  BRENT JOHNSONBrentJohnsonx125

  • Alternative timeframes for the dollar endgame
  • Why the dollar can continue to rise in the interim 

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Filia HeadshotErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome back Francesco Filia to MacroVoices. Erik and Francesco discuss:

  • How severe could a bear market be?
  • Complex dynamic systems
  • Short-term crash vs. extended bear market
  • Phase transitions and twin bubbles
  • Tipping points, crash hallmarks and butterflies
  • Why are the risks now?
  • Are treasury bonds going to be the benefactor?
  • How to play the short side of the markets?
  • Populism is the elephant in the room
  • Alternative monetary policy 

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Gurevich PhotoErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome back Alex Gurevich to MacroVoices. Erik and Alex discuss:

  • Bigger picture outlook in the business cycle
  • Perspective on the yield curve steepener
  • Outlook Treasury bonds
  • Where is the dollar trend heading next?
  • Quantitative tightening and easing in this cycle
  • Australian and Canadian economies
  • Outlook on Chinese economy
  • What is on the horizon for Japan?
  • What is in the future for Europe?
  • Where is gold heading in the bigger picture?
  • Interest rates as a predictor of equity markets

 

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Grant WilliamsErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Grant Williams back to MacroVoices. Erik and Grant discuss:

  • Are we in a cyclical bear market? 
  • Where are we headed next on treasury yields? 
  • Is the world turning Japanese? 
  • Escalation of tensions between China and Taiwan 
  • Update on how things are developing on Australian Real Estate
  • Risks of a recession in Australia  
  • Perspective on the rise of global populism  
  • Macron, France and the future of Europe
  • Outlook on gold and the yuan/gold ratio
  • What is the next move in the U.S. Dollar? 

SPECIAL POST GAME GUEST- MACRO TOURIST KEVIN MUIR discussing Modern Monetary Theory Kevin Muir 2019

The Macro Tourist - Everything you wanted to know about MMT (but were afraid to ask)

Watch Erik Townsend joining Patrick Ceresna and Kevin Muir on the new Market Huddle Show https://markethuddle.com/

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RussellNapierMacroVoicesErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Russell Napier back to MacroVoices. Erik and Patrick discuss:

  • Where are treasury bonds heading next?
  • Foreign buyers of treasury bonds
  • How does China effect global growth?
  • Tightening of Chinese monetary policy
  • Which central bank is dictating global inflation
  • Fed policy and the trend of monetary policy
  • Outlook for developed stock markets
  • Consequences of loose monetary policy
  • Is the decade long bull market over?
  • Is the Fed out of bullets?
  • Outlook for the U.S. Dollar

Russell Napiers: A Practical History of Financial Markets Course Details

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Charles Mcelligott Headshot 250xErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Charlie McElligott back to MacroVoices. Erik and Charlie discuss:

  • China Trade Collapse
  • Update on China Credit Impulse
  • PBoC Liquidity Operations
  • Bear market rally or continuation of bull market?
  • Fading the Fed’s economic optimism
  • Sequencing that could cause a force in on the equity markets
  • CTA Model Positioning across asset classes
  • Positioning in risk parity funds
  • Purge in equity fund flows in Q4 2018
  • Fear the steepener

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Christopher Cole Headshot 2019Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Chris Cole back to MacroVoices. Erik and Chris discuss:

  • Dissecting what happened in February 2018
  • Implicit and explicit short vol risk
  • Perspective on the next phase of the short vol unwind
  • Impacts of the reduction of central bank balance sheets
  • Link between volatility and the credit cycle
  • Will the Fed have the ammunition to come to rescue?
  • Perspective of the risk parity funds
  • Stock/bond correlation risk to pension funds
  • What does it take to make money long volatility?

You are strongly advised to listen to Chris Cole’s prior interview, The Alchemy of Risk before listening to this update
Click to listen to Chris Cole's interview back in Janauary 2018

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Marin Katusa OfficeErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Marin Katusa to MacroVoices. Erik and Marin discuss:

  • Update on uranium and uranium producers
  • Outlook on oil prices
  • Opportunities in the steel industry
  • Investing in the diamond industry
  • What is happening in the resource industry?
  • How to be a successful resource investor

Katusa Research Promo for MacroVoice Listeners

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MACRO VOICES is presented for informational and entertainment purposes only. The information presented in MACRO VOICES should NOT be construed as investment advice. Always consult a licensed investment professional before making important investment decisions. The opinions expressed on MACRO VOICES are those of the participants. MACRO VOICES, its producers, and hosts Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna shall NOT be liable for losses resulting from investment decisions based on information or viewpoints presented on MACRO VOICES.

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