About Erik Townsend

hedge fund manager Erik Townsend

Erik Townsend is a retired software entrepreneur turned hedge fund manager. Throughout his career, Erik has capitalized on his ability to understand complex systems and anticipate paradigm shifts far in advance of the mainstream. Read More...

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Hugh Hendry HeadshotErik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Hugh Hendry to MacroVoices. Erik and Hugh discuss:

  • USD breakout and binary consideration of US economy's condition in a strong-dollar environment
  • Brexit contagion and likelihood of strong vs. weaker countries disbanding from the EU
  • What the German-Italian sovereign spread portends for EU disintegration probabilities
  • Prescriptions for Japan given much greater cultural and political homogeneity
  • Evolution of views on developed market equities
  • The "time stop-loss" and when it's appropriate to pivot theses
  • Global transfer from creditors to debtors via the machinations of QE
  • Opinions on QE's efficacy at avoiding an outright global depression
  • Government's inability or unwillingness to move on fiscal reform and stimulus
  • Where US TSY's are headed next
  • Hugh's response to Kyle Bass' China devaluation thesis
  • Maintaining intellectual honesty in the face of professional ramifications

 

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RealVision TV red 02An interview which was originally published on July 1, 2016 between Grant Williams of Real Vision and Kyle Bass, Managing Partner, Chief Investment Officer, Portfolio Manager, and Founder of Hayman Capital Management.

 

 

 

 

 

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Robin GriffithsErik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Robin Griffiths to MacroVoices. Erik and Robin discuss:

  • Technical and cyclical frameworks for evaluating financial markets
  • Hierarchy of cycles from seasonal variation to generational
  • Central bank intervention and impact across various cycles
  • Potential panicked selloff for the trade-weighted U.S. dollar
  • Outlook for global equities and central bank-induced flash crashes
  • Treasury outlook and relationship with longer-term cycles
  • Developed markets on-going secular decline despite record equity market
  • Emerging market equity outlook, in particular China and India
  • Gold's resistance at $1,400 and ability to shoot back to all-time highs
  • Technological and demogrpahic tailwinds for developed markets
  • Trump vs. Clinton impacts on markets

 

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Yusko With Tie3 2016Erik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Mark Yusko to MacroVoices. Erik and Mark discuss:

  • Bearish outlook for and reserve status deterioration of U.S. dollar
  • The "Everything Bubble" and similarities to 2000
  • Central banks running out of rope and credibility
  • Misplaced comparisons between Deutsche Bank and Lehman Brothers
  • Rumored Deutsche Bank "white knights" in Qatar and China
  • Political and social implications for foreign ownership of the European banking system
  • Exciting trends and generational opportunities in China retail and eCommerce
  • Investment opportunities in other emerging market economics in light of weak dollar thesis
  • Potential longs in the oil and gas space following the supply shock in prices
  • Dangerous paradigm of buying stocks for yield and bonds for capital appreciation
  • Yield-enhancement, short-VIX strategies employed by pension funds
  • Trump vs. Clinton implications for financial markets

 

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RealVision TV red 02An interview which was originally published on July 20, 2016 between Grant Williams of Real Vision and Michael Lewitt, founder of The Credit Strategy Group and writer of The Credit Strategist, a popular and acclaimed investment newsletter.

 

 

 

 

 

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Simon HuntErik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Simon Hunt to MacroVoices. Erik and Simon discuss:

  • Internal political wars within China stagnating economic growth
  • China's steady, step-wise approach to allowing firm bankruptcies
  • Shift in global monetary policy power from Washington to Beijing
  • Internal IMF battle for RMB's inclusion in SDR
  • Looming inflation in commodity prices
  • Logic behind China's stockpiling of raw commodities and base metals
  • Strengthening strategic alliance between Russia and China
  • Trump vs. Clinton impacts on financial markets
  • Growing global discontent to USD "bully boy" tactics and de-dollarization
  • Impending global stock market crash and economic reset within the next 5 years
  • Gold's eventual reemergence as the global monetary base

 

 

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Mike Lebowitz 1Erik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Michael Lebowitz to MacroVoices. Erik and Michael discuss:

  • The saving discipline that drives the virtuous economic cycle and sustains prosperity
  • A global economy untethered from demographics and productivity
  • End game for the unvirtuous cycle of debt-fueled consumption
  • Outlook for negative interest rate policies
  • Brexit as representative of larger social, geopolitical, and wealth distributional forces
  • Japan outlook given worst-in-class demographics and productivity growth
  • Alternatives for savers throughout the demise of the virtuous cycle
  • Trump v. Clinton impacts on global financial markets

 

 

 

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RealVision TV red 02An interview which was originally published on April 14, 2016 with Roy Sebag and Josh Crumb, co-founders of Bitgold, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Strategy Officer of Goldmoney, respectively.

 

 

 

 

 

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Gurevich PhotoErik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Alex Gurevich to MacroVoices. Erik and Alex discuss:

  • Market reaction to latest FOMC policy decision
  • Concurrent necessity and dominance of the long U.S. dollar trade
  • Importance of placing current Fed actions in the context of historical rate-hiking cycles
  • Egregiously cheap valuations on 10-year Treasury Notes
  • Where we stand in the current bond bull market
  • Gold's positive risk-reward and return expectations in the coming years
  • Arguments for a long-Nikkei trade
  • Opportunities in USD/JPY
  • China's $30 trillion private debt unwind and history of imperial collapse
  • Migrant and political crises' effects on the future of the Euro
  • Capital market impacts of a Trump or Clinton presidency

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Raoul PalErik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Raoul Pal to MacroVoices. Erik and Raoul discuss:

  • Structural issues in LIBOR and Eurodollar markets as bullish for USD
  • Outlook for Treasuries given recent sell-off in bonds
  • Update on Raoul's business cycle framework
  • 100% probability of recession following 2-term U.S. presidencies
  • Recent spat of "Billionbears" coming to the forefront with downside calls
  • Brexit contagion spreading into the rest of Europe
  • Crowded risk-parity trades and reasons behind all-time short-VIX open interest
  • Gold and USD pairs-trade timeline and expectations
  • Monetary policy and the Fed's growing irrelevancy
  • Precarious state of and systemic risk of the European banking sector
  • Potential moonshot in soft commodities due to weather cycles
  • Updates on new Realvision TV products and initiatives

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MACRO VOICES is presented for informational and entertainment purposes only. The information presented in MACRO VOICES should NOT be construed as investment advice. Always consult a licensed investment professional before making important investment decisions. The opinions expressed on MACRO VOICES are those of the participants. MACRO VOICES, its producers, and hosts Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna shall NOT be liable for losses resulting from investment decisions based on information or viewpoints presented on MACRO VOICES.

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