About Erik Townsend

hedge fund manager Erik Townsend

Erik Townsend is a retired software entrepreneur turned hedge fund manager. Throughout his career, Erik has capitalized on his ability to understand complex systems and anticipate paradigm shifts far in advance of the mainstream. Read More...

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RealVision TV red 01A conversation on April 4, 2016 between Grant Williams and Michael Schneider, Chief Investment Officer of Brookline Partners.

 

 

 

 

 

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J ChristianErik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Jeffrey Christian to MacroVoices. Erik and Jeffrey discuss:

  • U.S. Dollar predictions and the range-bound outlook
  • Brexit contagion and potential impacts on gold and silver
  • Forward near-term guidane for gold and silver prices
  • Outlooks for macroeconomic drivers of precious metals
  • Economic and financial susceptibility given middling global GDP growth
  • Rejecting old mental models with unprecedentedly low real and nominal interest rates 
  • Excess reserve accumulation backfiring against Fed intentions
  • Continued expected disinflationary and deflationary forces until monetary and/or fiscal policy shifts
  • Low probability of a medium-term moonshot in precious metals prices assuming continued disinflation
  • Billionaire investors going public with bearish economic and market calls
  • Degradation of global political cooperation
  • Trump vs. Clinton implications for global markets and precious metals

 

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Arthur Berman largeErik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Art Berman to MacroVoices. Erik and Art discuss:

  • Looking beyond absolute inventory numbers and gleaning insights from comparative inventories
  • Recent anomalous comparative builds relative to historic trends
  • Continued time-spread compression reflecting producer hedging or lack of concern for a storage crisis
  • The selective capital raising environment for producers
  • Oil market balance and Saudi Arabia's fundamentally ineffectual 'production freeze'
  • Stabilizing US production and evaporation of upside price catalysts
  • Feedback loop of insanity in inventory builds and production
  • Claims of sub-$40 producers in the Permian basin
  • Concerns over consumption growth not aligning with change in prices
  • Timing for a moonshot in oil prices following a period of supply destruction and investment deficits

 

 

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RealVision TV red 02A conversation on January 5, 2016 between Grant Williams and Willem Middelkoop, founder of the Commodity Discovery Fund and author of the worldwide bestseller The Big Reset.

 

 

 

 

 

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AGS 2009 Hi ResolutionErik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Dr. Gary Shilling to MacroVoices. Erik and Gary discuss:

  • The continued perception of the U.S. Dollar as a safe haven currency
  • Why the long-bond trade isn't over and illuminate the forces driving yields lower
  • Reasoning behind going long defensive stocks despite a bearish view on equities
  • Time-horizon for $20 oil
  • The global commodity supply overhang
  • Helicopter money in the form of infrastructure and defense spending
  • The impacts of a Clinton or Trump presidency on markets

 

 

 

 

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DSC06699 2Erik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Jeffrey Snider to MacroVoices. Erik and Jeffrey discuss:

  • Rich equity valuations despite an on-going earnings recession
  • Off-track corporate cash flows and profits as evidence of a weakening economic environment
  • The mainstream misconception and myth that the Fed provides liquidity thereby levitating equity valuations 
  • The chronic and acute dollar shortage as evidenced by the decaying post-2007 global eurodollar system
  • Global central banks resorting to sellng Treasuries as a means to filling dollar funding gaps
  • Milton Friedman's Interest Rate Fallacy and how long-run low interest rates demonstrate tightness of money supply
  • How the tight-dollar environment manifests itself in the increasingly disorderly global repo market
  • The complete disconnect between inferred interest rate bearishness in eurodollar futures and QE as liquidity
  • TED-spread volatility and other wholesale financial measures suggesting central banks might be losing control
  • The Fed's inadequate response to the structural contraction in the global eurodollar system
  • Wholesale eurodollar system not tracking with prior exponential growth and demonstrating permanent monetary disruption
  • How the preponderance of evidence necessitates a systemic reset
  • Why central bankers lack the answers by being married to an incongruent monetary framework
  • The potentially galvanizing catalyst between nations in lieu of a serious crisis

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RealVision TV red 02A conversation on March 21, 2016 between Grant Williams and Paul Brodsky, founder of Macro Allocation Inc. 

 

 

 

 

 

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Paul Brodsky HeadshotErik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Paul Brodsky to MacroVoices. Erik and Paul discuss:

  • The necessary global reset due to insurmountable leverage
  • Views and outlook for U.S. Treasuries despite obvious sovereign insolvency
  • Signals for exiting the bond market bubble
  • The opacity of currency and monetary issues in Europe
  • Current monetary policy environment as slow-motion "water torture" for the global economy
  • The false deleveraging narrative when viewed in the light of base money
  • The possibility of central banks printing money to buy gold
  • Thinking behind owning gold bullion relative to gold mining shares
  • Oil's role in U.S. Dollar hegemony and likelihood of change
  • Scenarios including disinflation, followed by hyperinflation

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Charles0002 X3Erik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Charles Biderman to MacroVoices. Erik and Charles discuss:

  • Big picture and current market contexts beginning from Post-WW2
  • Dynamics between developed and emerging market currencies
  • Flight capital impact on U.S. markets
  • Predictions for U.S. Treasury yields
  • Possible catalysts to bring-on the endgame and portfolio allocations
  • Backstory related to sub-advisor relationship with and termination from AdvisorShares
  • TrimTabs' proprietary Float Shrink strategy and outperformance

 

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RealVision TV red 01A conversation on April 25, 2016 between Grant Williams and Stephen Diggle, founder of Vulpes Investment Management.

 

 

 

 

 

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MACRO VOICES is presented for informational and entertainment purposes only. The information presented in MACRO VOICES should NOT be construed as investment advice. Always consult a licensed investment professional before making important investment decisions. The opinions expressed on MACRO VOICES are those of the participants. MACRO VOICES, its producers, and hosts Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna shall NOT be liable for losses resulting from investment decisions based on information or viewpoints presented on MACRO VOICES.

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