Welcome to Macro Voices

Erik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Alex Gurevich to MacroVoices. Erik and Alex discuss:

• Market reaction to latest FOMC policy decision
• Concurrent necessity and dominance of the long U.S. dollar trade
• Importance of placing current Fed actions in the context of historical rate-hiking cycles
• Egregiously cheap valuations on 10-year Treasury Notes
• Where we stand in the current bond bull market
• Gold's positive risk-reward and return expectations in the coming years
• Arguments for a long-Nikkei trade
• Opportunities in USD/JPY
• China's $30 trillion private debt unwind and history of imperial collapse
• Migrant and political crises' effects on the future of the Euro
• Capital market impacts of a Trump or Clinton presidency

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Erik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Raoul Pal to MacroVoices. Erik and Raoul discuss:

• Structural issues in LIBOR and Eurodollar markets as bullish for USD
• Outlook for Treasuries given recent sell-off in bonds
• Update on Raoul's business cycle framework
• 100% probability of recession following 2-term U.S. presidencies
• Recent spat of "Billionbears" coming to the forefront with downside calls
• Brexit contagion spreading into the rest of Europe
• Crowded risk-parity trades and reasons behind all-time short-VIX open interest
• Gold and USD pairs-trade timeline and expectations
• Monetary policy and the Fed's growing irrelevancy
• Precarious state of and systemic risk of the European banking sector
• Potential moonshot in soft commodities due to weather cycles
• Updates on new Realvision TV products and initiatives

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A conversation on April 4, 2016 between Grant Williams and Michael Schneider, Chief Investment Officer of Brookline Partners.

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Erik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Jeffrey Christian to MacroVoices. Erik and Jeffrey discuss:

• U.S. Dollar predictions and the range-bound outlook
• Brexit contagion and potential impacts on gold and silver
• Forward near-term guidane for gold and silver prices
• Outlooks for macroeconomic drivers of precious metals
• Economic and financial susceptibility given middling global GDP growth
• Rejecting old mental models with unprecedentedly low real and nominal interest rates 
• Excess reserve accumulation backfiring against Fed intentions
• Continued expected disinflationary and deflationary forces until monetary and/or fiscal policy shifts
• Low probability of a medium-term moonshot in precious metals prices assuming continued disinflation
• Billionaire investors going public with bearish economic and market calls
• Degradation of global political cooperation
• Trump vs. Clinton implications for global markets and precious metals

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Erik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Art Berman to MacroVoices. Erik and Art discuss:

• Looking beyond absolute inventory numbers and gleaning insights from comparative inventories
• Recent anomalous comparative builds relative to historic trends
• Continued time-spread compression reflecting producer hedging or lack of concern for a storage crisis
• The selective capital raising environment for producers
• Oil market balance and Saudi Arabia's fundamentally ineffectual 'production freeze'
• Stabilizing US production and evaporation of upside price catalysts
• Feedback loop of insanity in inventory builds and production
• Claims of sub-$40 producers in the Permian basin
• Concerns over consumption growth not aligning with change in prices
• Timing for a moonshot in oil prices following a period of supply destruction and investment deficits

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A conversation on January 5, 2016 between Grant Williams and Willem Middelkoop, founder of the Commodity Discovery Fund and author of the worldwide bestseller The Big Reset.

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Erik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Dr. Gary Shilling to MacroVoices. Erik and Gary discuss:

• The continued perception of the U.S. Dollar as a safe haven currency
• Why the long-bond trade isn't over and illuminate the forces driving yields lower
• Reasoning behind going long defensive stocks despite a bearish view on equities
• Time-horizon for $20 oil
• The global commodity supply overhang
• Helicopter money in the form of infrastructure and defense spending
• The impacts of a Clinton or Trump presidency on markets

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Erik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Jeffrey Snider to MacroVoices. Erik and Jeffrey discuss:

• Rich equity valuations despite an on-going earnings recession
• Off-track corporate cash flows and profits as evidence of a weakening economic environment
• The mainstream misconception and myth that the Fed provides liquidity thereby levitating equity valuations 
• The chronic and acute dollar shortage as evidenced by the decaying post-2007 global eurodollar system
• Global central banks resorting to sellng Treasuries as a means to filling dollar funding gaps
• Milton Friedman's Interest Rate Fallacy and how long-run low interest rates demonstrate tightness of money supply
• How the tight-dollar environment manifests itself in the increasingly disorderly global repo market
• The complete disconnect between inferred interest rate bearishness in eurodollar futures and QE as liquidity
• TED-spread volatility and other wholesale financial measures suggesting central banks might be losing control
• The Fed's inadequate response to the structural contraction in the global eurodollar system
• Wholesale eurodollar system not tracking with prior exponential growth and demonstrating permanent monetary disruption
• How the preponderance of evidence necessitates a systemic reset
• Why central bankers lack the answers by being married to an incongruent monetary framework
• The potentially galvanizing catalyst between nations in lieu of a serious crisis

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A conversation on March 21, 2016 between Grant Williams and Paul Brodsky, founder of Macro Allocation Inc. 

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Erik Townsend and Aaron Chan welcome Paul Brodsky to MacroVoices. Erik and Paul discuss:

• The necessary global reset due to insurmountable leverage
• Views and outlook for U.S. Treasuries despite obvious sovereign insolvency
• Signals for exiting the bond market bubble
• The opacity of currency and monetary issues in Europe
• Current monetary policy environment as slow-motion "water torture" for the global economy
• The false deleveraging narrative when viewed in the light of base money
• The possibility of central banks printing money to buy gold
• Thinking behind owning gold bullion relative to gold mining shares
• Oil's role in U.S. Dollar hegemony and likelihood of change
• Scenarios including disinflation, followed by hyperinflation

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