Erik: Joining me now is Dr. Peter Warburton, Director and Chief Economist for Economics Perspectives Limited.
Dr. Warburton, it is such a pleasure to get you on the program, because something I have been thinking about for years and, frankly, people ridicule me about, is it seems to me like if you look at all of the policy decisions of the last several years and the people who have criticized them – myself included – it seems to me like what’s going on is we can get away with these things until inflation gets in the way.
And once we have an inflation problem, all of a sudden central bankers can’t just paper over our problems by printing more money because it would exacerbate the inflation. But most people think inflation, hey, we haven’t had it in recent history. We’ve had a deflationary backdrop. It’s not a problem.
You gave a presentation back at the end of June called Blowing up the box! And what I really like about this is your perspective resonates so well with mine – that if you want to understand inflation you can’t just think about past history. You’ve got to think about not just the economics but also the political environment.
Erik: Joining me now is Jim Rickards, best-selling author. And Jim has a brand-new book coming out next week. It’s available now for pre-order on Amazon and through other outlets. The title of the book is Aftermath: Seven Secrets of Wealth Preservation in the Coming Chaos.
Jim, thanks so much for joining us.
I want to start with what I think is really the core issue behind just about everything else we talk about in economics, which is burgeoning debt around the world. And I think sovereign debt is what we tend to focus the most on.
But, frankly, the private debt problem is just as big. And I feel like the world ignores this. The question that is always on my mind – at what point do we get to where the breaking point is reached and the bad predictions that all the smart people like yourself have been making for decades, finally we hit that breaking point and things start to break?
So give us a little bit of perspective. I know you cover this early in the book about how there has been a progression of debt increase, and it’s not linear. So give us the back story.
Erik: Joining me now is Jesse Felder, author of the Felder Report and, from time to time, also the producer of an excellent podcast.
Jesse, it’s been too long. It’s great to have you back on the program. Let’s start with the stock market. Here we are, much to my surprise at least, not quite all-time highs today but within the last several sessions we’ve been at all-time highs. I don’t know about you, but the economic message of everything’s rosy and it makes sense for the stock market to be at all-time highs is not resonating in my mind.
How do you see this market?
Jesse: You know, it’s actually been, I think, a year since you had me on. And back then I shared a bunch of charts with your audience showing the breadth divergences. And, really, the number of hidden Hindenburg Omens was the thing that really stood out to me. And we had that steep fourth-quarter decline right after that last time we talked.
I think we’re at another similar point right now where stocks are kind of still trickling higher but valuations are extreme, almost no matter how you measure them. And I’m seeing that kind of deterioration under the surface again.
Erik: Joining me now is author John Netto, author of The Global Macro Edge.
John, it’s great to have you on the program. Usually I ask the question about the issues that I see as the real drivers of the market. Frankly, my question today is what the heck is driving this market?
Because it seems like everybody is obsessed with this Trump-Xi negotiation thing. Frankly, it feels to me like it’s produced for public consumption. I think we’re going through theatrics here.
Is this really about FOMC policy and expectations of rate cuts? Why are we seeing over this last weekend the huge gap-up open? What is driving the market, in your opinion, right now? And what should investors be paying the most attention to?
John: First of all, thanks for having me on Erik. It’s a pleasure to be here. I’m a long-time fan of the show. So I feel like I’m on hallowed ground right now.
To you question. I think when you look at the gap-up that took place in the S&P from Sunday from the G20 reconciliation, the Trump-Xi trade talk reconciliation that happened in Osaka, it’s more about a quasi-Goldilocks scenario.
Marin, the last few times we’ve had you on the program, you made some really bold calls and you got lucky with one of them which was Nevsun.
I shouldn’t say you completely got lucky. It was a good call and it was good analysis. But you got lucky on the timing. It just broke out crazy about two or three days after you recommended it on this program. So I think the timing on that was luck.
The next one that you described on a subsequent interview, you couldn’t tell us at the time the name of the company because it only for your subscribers. But we can now tell them that was Uranium Royalty Corporation. You got your subscribers in on a financing on that one.
How has that performed since we talked to you about it, I can’t remember how many months ago?