Daniel, it’s great to have you back on the show. I always look forward to getting your perspective as a European. Here in the United States, we have an interesting situation, which is the presidential election is still contested – although it looks almost certain that Biden will win.
At the same time, we have, on one hand, a great big increase both in the United States and globally in coronavirus infections hospitalizations and deaths. On the other hand, we have two bits of very promising vaccine news, one from Pfizer and just a new one Monday of this week from Moderna.
Stocks rallying to fresh all-time highs, or at least on a closing basis it would be a fresh all-time highs at the numbers we’re seeing right now on the S&P.
What do you make of this? Is it the vaccine that’s doing it? Or was this market just ready to move higher after the election anyway?
Erik: Joining me now is Lakshman Achuthan co-founder of the Economic Cycles Research Institute or ECRI. Lak, it's great to have you back on the show, before we get started listeners, first of all there is a slide deck. You're going to want to download the link it is in your research roundup email, if you don't have a research roundup email just go to our homepage, look for the red button that says looking for the downloads.
Here's the thing I also want you to take to heart Lak was last on the show back in May, we did a lot of coverage of the way that ECRI analyzes cycles, so we talked about the three Ds of every recession, which are depth, diffusion, and duration. We also distinguish the different types of cycles, economic cycles can be growth cycles, they can be business cycles, they can also be inflation cycles. So understanding those differences, all of the content in that May 7th interview is as relevant today as it was the day that it was recorded, we're not going to go back and cover old ground.
So I encourage new listeners, if you don't remember that interview to go back and listen to it because we're going to build on what we started there. Lak, I want to focus on a couple of things you told us in that interview.
Erik: Joining me now is Katusa Research founder Marin Katusa. Marin, it's great to get you back on the show, it's been too long, I just had Professor Stephanie Kelton on a couple of weeks ago and it blew my mind.
We've had more reaction to that interview than anything we've ever done on Macro Voices, and what surprised me was people are angry at me. The sound money crowd is upset, they're like you had the traitor on your show, you've defected. And I'm trying to tell these guys, look, I'm not endorsing this, I'm telling you, you got to get ready for what's coming, like it or not Stephanie Kelton has really one of the most influential voices in public policy and finance right now.
How do you see this? How should gold investors be thinking about MMT? Does it make sense to dismiss it? Or should we take it seriously?
Erik: Joining me now is Tian Yang head of Macro Research for Variant Perception. Tian prepared a terrific chart deck for today's interview, registered users will find the download link in your research roundup email. If you don't have a research roundup email that means you're not registered yet. Just go to our homepage at macrovoices.com look for the red button that says looking for the download above Tian's picture.
Tian, it's great to get you back on the program, it's been way too long frankly, and just looking at your slide deck, it's very timely, we've been talking quite a bit on this program that I'm convinced at some point, we get a secular shift to inflation. Commodities eventually have to bottom and we see a new upcycle in commodities and boy, that's exactly what you've got.
In the first half of your deck here is the next commodity super cycle starting with inflation as a driver. So where do you guys see this inflation picture? Is it just around the corner, or it could still be a year or two off?
Erik: Joining me now is bestselling author Professor Stephanie Kelton, widely known both as an expert on modern monetary theory and I would say even more so as one of the most active promoters of modern monetary theory in the public policy arena. Dr. Kelton, thank you so much for joining us, the book of course is called "The Deficit Myth: Modern Monetary Theory and the Birth of the People’s Economy".
So I want to dive right in to the six myths that you bust in the book and talk about the first one which is that for years and years we've had this debate in public policy, where everybody says, okay, we've got too much debt. The political left says that's because we're not taxing the rich enough and the political right says it's because we're spending too much. But both sides historically have generally been willing to agree that expanding the national debt is a big problem, you got to balance the budget.
You say, that's not really true, particularly for monetary sovereigns like the United States that control their own currency. So why that distinction? And why is it a myth that it's important to pay for what we spend or what the government spends through taxes?