Transcripts
Erik: Well, it’s FOMC week. So joining as this week’s feature interview guest is JDI Research founder, Juliette Declercq.
Juliette has prepared a deck of her famous graphs and charts, which are some of the best in the industry. So I definitely encourage you to download the chart book as we’ll be referring to it throughout the interview.
You can find the download link in your Research Roundup email. If you don’t have a Research Roundup email, that means you’re not registered yet. Just look for the red button on our home page at macrovoices.com that says Looking for the Downloads? It’s right next to Juliette’s picture on our home page.
Juliette, I want to get into a bunch of different topics with you. But, where it’s an FOMC week, we’ll have a listener revolt if I don’t start with your take on the FOMC.
What did you make of this week’s event?
Erik: Joining me next on the program is Mark Gordon, the Chief Investment Officer for Ascent Oil Fund.
Listeners, you’ll remember that I encouraged you last week on our show to watch Mark’s interview with Keith McCullough, our friend, the founder of Hedgeye. For anyone who didn’t, a link for that is in your Research Roundup email.
We’re going to do something a little bit different in today’s interview format. I really feel like Mark is one of very few people in the industry who really is looking at the right issues in the oil market. Mark’s got a whole pitch that goes with this. It was in the interview with Keith McCullough. We’re going to assume that you already watched that and you’ve got that.
I do recommend that you first download the slide deck, which is also linked in your Research Roundup email. If you’re not yet registered and you don’t have a Research Roundup email for that link, just go to our home page at macrovoices.com, look for the red button that says Looking for the Downloads? next to Mark’s picture on our home page.
Erik: Joining me next on the program is CPM Group founder, Jeffery Christian.
I want to let our listeners know that we recorded this particular interview all the way back in early February 2019, so we won’t be up to date on the latest market developments. But it won’t matter because we are going to talk about two really important subjects today that I really appreciate Jeff giving us the time to give us his perspective on.
One is electric vehicles and where energy is going to come from in the future. The other is the changing role of where Russia and China fit in to the geopolitical stratosphere. And, particularly, how the views in China and Russia differ from views that we in the United States might have about China and Russia.
Jeff, thanks so much for joining us on the program. Why don’t we go ahead and dive in to electric vehicles, your first topic.
My first question, where is the energy going to come from? And don’t say electric or hydrogen, because those are not energy sources. Those are ways of delivering energy that has to be generated some other way.
So where is energy going to come from if not oil in the future?
Erik: Joining me now is Peter Boockvar, Chief Investment Officer for Bleakly Advisory Group, Bleakly Financial Group, and the editor of the Boock Report, a very popular market newsletter.
Peter, thanks so much for joining us this week. I want to start with the big-picture macro. You know, we’ve had so many conflicting signals and so many different viewpoints.
How would you summarize this big picture? It seems like, on one hand, there’s a lot of good reasons, if you look at bond yields and so forth, to think that we’re seeing recession signals. Boy, the stock market didn’t get the memo if that’s the case.
How do you make sense of all these conflicting signals?
Erik: Joining me now is Charlie McElligott head of US cross-asset macro strategy for Nomura.
Charlie, it’s great to have you back on the program. Listeners, we do have a small chart deck that Charlie prepared that will accompany this interview. You’ll find the download link in your Research Roundup email. [If you’re not yet registered, go to our home page at macrovoices.com and look for the red button that says Looking for the Downloads?]
Charlie, I want to start with the really big broad-stroke big picture, and then we’ll get into some of the details that you’ve been writing about in some of your daily notes.
When I first interviewed you more than a year ago, you were talking about late-cycle dynamics, the end of the economic cycle. And I don’t think you got anything wrong. I think you were spot on.
But now we are more than a year later and I think we are seeing that the economic cycle really is ending. But, boy, the stock market has just got this persistent bid.
What is going on here? And is it telling us that that late-cycle analysis was wrong? Or is it just that the dynamics have changed and the market can melt up no matter what the economy is doing?
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