About Erik Townsend

hedge fund manager Erik Townsend

Erik Townsend is a retired software entrepreneur turned hedge fund manager. Throughout his career, Erik has capitalized on his ability to understand complex systems and anticipate paradigm shifts far in advance of the mainstream. Read More...

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julian brigden headshotErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Julian Brigden to MacroVoices. Erik and Julian discuss:

  • How do things look in today’s market?
  • What is on the horizon for inflation?
  • Risks of runaway inflation
  • What comes next for equities?
  • Are the market highs in already?
  • What if bonds and stocks sell off, where does the money go?
  • US Dollar structural issues
  • What is causing the correlation breakdown between the USD and US bonds?
  • What levels should we be watching on the US Dollar?
  • Where to focus the bond short

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Julian will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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JeffreySniderErik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Jeffrey Snider to MacroVoices. Erik and Jeff discuss:

  • What does the yield curve tell us?
  • US Treasury Curve
  • Changes from an Era of Fed Funds Rate Targeting
  • Reflections on the 2006-2009 curves
  • Reflation trends in the post GFC
  • Deconstructing Rates
  • Negative Term Premiums
  • Market Inflation Expectations
  • Eurodollar Futures & Effective Money
  • Central Bank Failure
  • This Flat Curve is the Bad One

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Jeff will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

Click here to register for access to supporting materials.


Get embed code for this episode | For other embed code options click here | Download the audio MP3 File (85.47 MB) | Download the podcast transcript:   pdf Here (309 KB)

John Mauldin MVErik Townsend welcomes John Mauldin to MacroVoices. Erik and John discuss:

  • Is this the end or just the beginning of this small market dislocation?
  • What is the reason that we have a back up of interest rates?
  • How far can the 10-year go before something breaks and what are the risks?
  • With China’s banking assets now at 44 trillion how will this end?
  • Is inflation coming and what are the consequences?
  • What were some of the surprises from the SIC conference this year?

SPECIAL POSTGAME GUEST AND CO-HOST - Kevin Muir – market strategist at East West Investment Management and author of the MacroTourist. We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies the post game interview as Erik and Kevin will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

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Jim Grant MacroVoicesErik Townsend welcomes Jim Grant to MacroVoices. Erik and Jim discuss:

  • The state of the FED under J Powell 
  • What to make of rising treasury yields?
  • How far can the FED go before something breaks?
  • Outlook on Inflation
  • Perspective on gold
  • What can be the outcome of such a massive credit expansion?
  • Shorting junk bonds
  • What drivers of long term cycles and what can we expect to see next?
  • What happened when the FED did not bail out the banks in 1920?
  • Considerations on what actions the government can take to deal with the debt

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JeffreySniderErik Townsend welcomes Jeffrey Snider to MacroVoices. Erik and Jeffrey discuss:

  • Gold swaps and how do central banks engage in them
  • What has changed in gold swaps, how are they done today?
  • The gold bug’s conspiracy theory about “gold pukes”
  • What happened to gold in the 2008 crisis
  • What caused gold to turn at the end of 2008
  • Why do central banks still hold gold after 2008 and why are others not?
  • Why did gold peak in 2011 and what was so bearish about it in 2013?
  • How do dollar index futures fit into the gold story?
  • How has the mood changed in gold starting 2017?
  • How will gold play out if the dollar continues to slide
  • Topic nnInterbank lending statistics discontinued, what does it mean

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Jeffrey will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

Click here to register for access to supporting materials.


Get embed code for this episode | For other embed code options click here | Download the audio MP3 File (76.05 MB) | Download the podcast transcript:   pdf Here (272 KB)

Rick Rule eErik Townsend welcomes Rick Rule to MacroVoices. Erik and Rick discuss:

  • Why focus on investing natural resources?
  • Using top down macro in resource investing
  • Rare earths and lithium 
  • What resources should investors focus on?
  • Uranium and nuclear energy
  • Liquid Fluoride Thorium Reactors
  • Copper, Potash and Dry Bulk Shipping
  • Water as a commodity
  • China and the future of rare earths

 

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Eric Peters HeadshotErik Townsend welcomes Eric Peters to MacroVoices. Erik and Eric discuss:

  • Is this just a small equity market dislocation or is this bigger?
  • Is this all about rates or the VIX complex?
  • Why were the Inverse VIX products flawed
  • Context on the increasing rates and the movement of the dollar
  • Stagflation and inflation risks
  • Considerations on corporate debt and buybacks
  • Impact of the changes of leadership at the FED
  • Context on FED policy tools during the next recession
  • Is this a Bear Stearns moment for the markets?

 

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Get embed code for this episode | For other embed code options click here | Download the audio MP3 File (70.87 MB) | Download the podcast transcript:   pdf Here (191 KB)

JaredDillianErik Townsend welcomes Jared Dillian to MacroVoices. Erik and Jared discuss:

  • Drivers of this stock market drop
  • Is higher volatility here to stay?
  • The beginning of a sustained unwinding of the short vol trade
  • Future regulation of these specialty ETF products
  • Where are the markets heading from here? 
  • Bonds, interest rates and how high can rates go?
  • Where is the U.S. dollar heading next?
  • Dollars relationship to gold
  • Outlook on the Canadian economy

SPECIAL POSTGAME GUESTS:

Chris Cole from Artemis Capital - Follow up on his January 25th interview on Volatility and the Alchemy of Risk.
Devin Anderson - Managing Director - Postmortem on the implosion of the vol ETNs  

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Get embed code for this episode | For other embed code options click here | Download the audio MP3 File (70.78 MB) | Download the podcast transcript:   pdf Here (196 KB)

Arthur Berman largeErik Townsend welcomes Art Berman to MacroVoices. Erik and Art discuss:

  • Reflecting on the current oil market
  • Where are the comparative inventories
  • OPEC decisions and actions dominating price
  • Context on OPEC production cuts
  • How much new oil is coming from higher prices
  • Economics on the shale oil fields
  • Perspective on US oil exports
  • Exports primary reason behind U.S. inventory reductions
  • Underinvestment in exploration and development

SPECIAL POSTGAME GUEST: Energy Markets Commercial Broker Patricia Hemsworth to discuss producer hedging, WTI/Brent spreads and the forward curve price dynamics.

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Art will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

Click here to register for access to supporting materials.


Get embed code for this episode | For other embed code options click here | Download the audio MP3 File (67.39 MB) | Download the podcast transcript:   pdf Here (388 KB)

chris cole picErik Townsend welcomes Chris Cole to MacroVoices. Erik and Chris discuss:

  • Risks in share buybacks
  • Defining the short volatility trade
  • Explicit vs implicit short vol positions
  • Risk parity, VAR control, Risk Premia and CTAs
  • Considerations on the unwind of the short VIX trade
  • History of correlations on stocks and bonds
  • The scenario where we can have another 1987 market drop again
  • Consideration on the growing trend to passive investing
  • Potential catalysis for market triggers

We strongly recommend that you download the chart book that accompanies this interview, and Erik and Chris will refer to it throughout the interview. Registered users here at MacroVoices.com already received the download link in your research roundup e-mail. If you haven’t already registered, click the red “Subscribe for FREE” button on the top right side of the home page, and register.  Once logged in, you will see the download link(s) and will be able to download the PDF document(s).

Click here to register for access to supporting materials.


Get embed code for this episode | For other embed code options click here | Download the audio MP3 File (65.03 MB) | Download the podcast transcript:   pdf Here (634 KB)

MACRO VOICES is presented for informational and entertainment purposes only. The information presented in MACRO VOICES should NOT be construed as investment advice. Always consult a licensed investment professional before making important investment decisions. The opinions expressed on MACRO VOICES are those of the participants. MACRO VOICES, its producers, and hosts Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna shall NOT be liable for losses resulting from investment decisions based on information or viewpoints presented on MACRO VOICES.

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